The insane logic of 'No Labels'

Like, what?

For months now, I have been watching No Labels — the movement to run a credible centrist presidential ticket in 2024 —closely.

I’ve avoided writing much about them because, well, I wanted to see where this was all going (or if it was going anywhere at all).

But, since it now appears as through No Labels is really and truly going to go through with their plans, the time has come to ask the question: What the hell do they think they are doing?

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Let’s start with some facts.

Last week, No Labels delegates (no one knows who these people are) got together and decided that, yes, they needed to go through with their plan to field a ticket in the 2024 race.

Then, this morning, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman told the Washington Post that the group will choose a “nominating committee” today — and that that committee will be tasked with picking the group’s presidential nominee.

So, this is really happening! Or, is it?

“We are going to do a final determination that at least at this point we have met all of our standards, and we are not going to be a spoiler and that we are not going to reelect Trump and that we actually have a chance to win,” Lieberman told the Post. “To me personally, stopping him from being reelected is a goal even greater than restoring bipartisanship to Washington.”

Er, ok.

To make that happen, Lieberman said that the nominating committee is leaning toward picking a conservative or a Republican to lead the ticket. One name that has been publicly mentioned is former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, which, well:

To be clear then, the goals of No Labels are two-fold:

1. To put together a centrist ticket who can win

2. To ensure that Donald Trump is not the president again

Which doesn’t compute for me. You are EITHER putting together a ticket who can win or ensuring that Trump can’t be president again. You can’t do both!

Right? I am not on crazy pills here, am I?

If you are focused on nominating a Republican or a conservative for your third party ticket, aren’t you inherently accepting the argument that you are, in fact, a potential spoiler to elect Trump again?

The answer is yes. Which, of course, also happens to be true. And here’s why.

I’ve argued in this space before that Trump has a hard ceiling in terms of the percentage of the vote he will win nationally (and in swing states). And that ceiling is less than 50%.

Therefore, the MOST beneficial thing you can do for Trump is to lower the number he needs to win a state. As in, Trump probably can’t get to 50% in, say, Wisconsin. Which means in a two-way race, he isn’t likely to win. But, he most definitely can get to 46% — and if there are enough 3rd party candidates in the race, that could be good enough to give him the state.

Given that reality, if one of your STATED goals is to not reelect Trump, the best thing you can do is to support Joe Biden — warts and all. Because he is the only person who has a credible chance of beating Trump in the general election.

Right? Right!

Now, it’s worth noting here that all available evidence suggests a No Labels ticket isn’t exactly winning the hearts and minds of the American public.

Check out these numbers from a recent national poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University:

So, 1.9 is not exactly a groundswell of support. Now, the No Labels people would likely argue that once they name a ticket, support will increase. And it might! But it seems very unlikely to me that choosing Geoff Duncan as your presidential candidate will lead to a MAJOR surge in support for the No Labels ticket.

That said, if I learned any lesson from my last two decades of watching political races, it’s this: Every vote does count!

And even if the No Labels ticket peaked at 2% of the vote, that would — as I noted above — make Trump’s win number that much lower and, therefore, increase his chances of victory.

I’ve never really understood the paradox that sits at the heart of No Labels. They simultaneously want to run a credible third party candidacy while also ensuring that they aren’t making it easier for Trump to win. Those things do not go together. Never have, never will.