To paraphrase Thatcher and twist the knife, “The problem with quixotic insurgent candidacies is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”
Another good piece, Chris. Thanks for all the content. As you point out, a surprise by DeSantis remains possible in Iowa, and that could change things. But the problem remains that he isn't comfortable in his own skin&is too awkward for the retail politics needed in Iowa and NH. I agree with you that Trump's getting the nomination is highly likely. But I'm still hoping for a different result. My core beliefs mean I'll likely never vote for an R for POTUS, but I would like to see a sane alternative to Trump. It's awfully difficult to play an effective game of tennis or basketball, for example, if you are on the court with unstable and unpredictable opponents. And we've found that we have an extremely tough time governing as the right drifts further toward extreme nationalism. Next on tap in our mad world, is the prospect of a government shutdown, and it's that type of instability that threatens our credit rating and credibility.
I think there will be some level of competition for the nomination -- as people usually like a little bit of a race and sense that the winner had to work for it.
But, I am skeptical -- now more than ever -- that DeSantis is going to be the guy who emerges as the Trump alternative.
I agree. And by the way, to be clear, I don't consider DeSantis to be a sane alternative. His battles with Disney and mean spirited reactions to social change are disqualifying in my book
I remain mystified at the overly inflated role that Iowa seems to play. Yes, I know that President Obama won the state twice, but it is now clearly (and thoroughly) a "red state". It is not reflective of the nation as a whole, IMHO.
I think it's role is dying off, honestly. I think Trump so nationalized the primary campaign that there isn't even really a point in all of the focus on Iowa (and New Hampshire). I think it's mostly just candidates going through the motions at this point.
As far as I know, it is still really indicative of the evangelist Christian crowd. Yeah, not representative of America as a whole, but important. On that note, DeSantis reminds me of corn. Most people like it, but it is not very exciting, like broccoli or Brussels sprouts. Trump is like rhubarb - bitter yet zesty, but definitely like a weed, is hard to get rid of.
Unlike 2016 when there were like 20 candidates, by the time the primaries start there looks like there might only be one or two serious candidates against Trump. The sooner it gets winnowed down, the better.
What reason is there for Scott, Hutchinson or Pence to still be running? Can’t believe any of them have much money coming in. Dead men walking. Add DeSantis to that, too.
I’m sure you’re right on that. Hate to even bring this up since I’m old enough to remember Bobby Kennedy. If I was Mike Pence I’d be a little nervous being on the campaign trail and also being a witness for the prosecution.
DeSantis is sinking, perhaps he has a life raft, time will tell. I do not think any of the rest of the candidates will create enough of a stir to really make this competitive. Interestingly, we were in a rest stop today and someone started talking to us, as my husband had a NH t shirt on. He’s originally from way upstate NY, retired to FL and after 8 years moved out of Florida 3 weeks ago. He hated Florida (interestingly, he lived in the development across the street from my dads) and couldn’t wait to get out. Yes, he mentioned heat but said that didn’t drive him out. He said there were 2 big issues, one being the rise in cost of homeowners insurance. He claimed that he went from $1500.00 up to $8,000 and that was enough of that. The bigger reason was DeSantis, he said that people in Florida hated him and his politics. Who knows. I can not stand DeSantis and agree, he isn’t the sane alternative to Trump. Sadly, any sane alternative won’t get the traction with the political climate we are in now.
Sounds like how my wife and I feel. This place was OK 8 years ago when we arrived. After Trump and DeSatan, it's gone to hell. Hard to believe, but it's true.
My dad moved to Florida (life long NJ resident) in 2017 and passed away 1/1/23. He moved down after my mom had passed away, had a single family home (a little south of Ocala) and enjoyed getting out of the cold. I am an only child, so what to do with the house was ultimately my decision. Neither of us want anything to do with Florida, perhaps a vacation to Naples or the keys, but that’s about it. No way did we want to live in Florida, not even snow birding. I sold the house.
The worst of it is that, setting the entire campaign aside and leapfrogging into a horrific, dystopian future...De Santis would be a TERRIBLE president...perhaps second only to DJT in the pantheon of awful !
Chris - really appreciate your pulling this together. You have, rightfully, been raising questions about the DeSantis candidacy for a while. What I read from your summary is the campaign is running out of money, so they now have to pick and choose where they hope to get the most value for their last few dollars. Their spending wildly early on, as you also highlighted, has drained the coffers. it feels like the campaign is in the emergency room, is being given oxygen, and a ventilator is coming down the hall. GRD could still recover enough to make it to Super Tuesday, however, when the core patient is somewhat lifeless on a good day, I am not sure there is a magic prescription which can not only bring the patient to life, but also bring the campaign to life as well.
The one positive for him is this week is his commitment to head to Florida to address both the racial shooting in Jacksonville and the hurricane preparation and recovery efforts. It does make him look like he is being a leader (dare I say, Presidential), and is focused on what should be important. I would not be surprised if his efforts over the last couple of days, even with the hecklers and gaffes, will give him a boost in Iowa - key will be, if the boost happens, can he consolidate and extend it?
Mike, I agree. DeSantis just being governor this week has been one of the best weeks for him since he entered the presidential race.
I just don't personally see the spark in DeSantis as a national candidate. I think they can change staff all the want but, ultimately, the most likely problem is the candidate.
I, for one, never felt DeSantis would play well outside of Florida. The Florida constituency is unique, which he was able to take advantage of, yet I cannot help but think it would be very different if he were up for election this year, or even next year, for Governor.
To paraphrase Thatcher and twist the knife, “The problem with quixotic insurgent candidacies is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”
Ha! So very true.
Does that mean he has to go back to flying commercial? Life is so unfair.
"One state candidate."
With thoughts and prayers to that state's residents having to endure the Caudillo de DeSantistan's "guidance."
Another good piece, Chris. Thanks for all the content. As you point out, a surprise by DeSantis remains possible in Iowa, and that could change things. But the problem remains that he isn't comfortable in his own skin&is too awkward for the retail politics needed in Iowa and NH. I agree with you that Trump's getting the nomination is highly likely. But I'm still hoping for a different result. My core beliefs mean I'll likely never vote for an R for POTUS, but I would like to see a sane alternative to Trump. It's awfully difficult to play an effective game of tennis or basketball, for example, if you are on the court with unstable and unpredictable opponents. And we've found that we have an extremely tough time governing as the right drifts further toward extreme nationalism. Next on tap in our mad world, is the prospect of a government shutdown, and it's that type of instability that threatens our credit rating and credibility.
I think there will be some level of competition for the nomination -- as people usually like a little bit of a race and sense that the winner had to work for it.
But, I am skeptical -- now more than ever -- that DeSantis is going to be the guy who emerges as the Trump alternative.
I agree. And by the way, to be clear, I don't consider DeSantis to be a sane alternative. His battles with Disney and mean spirited reactions to social change are disqualifying in my book
I remain mystified at the overly inflated role that Iowa seems to play. Yes, I know that President Obama won the state twice, but it is now clearly (and thoroughly) a "red state". It is not reflective of the nation as a whole, IMHO.
I think it's role is dying off, honestly. I think Trump so nationalized the primary campaign that there isn't even really a point in all of the focus on Iowa (and New Hampshire). I think it's mostly just candidates going through the motions at this point.
As far as I know, it is still really indicative of the evangelist Christian crowd. Yeah, not representative of America as a whole, but important. On that note, DeSantis reminds me of corn. Most people like it, but it is not very exciting, like broccoli or Brussels sprouts. Trump is like rhubarb - bitter yet zesty, but definitely like a weed, is hard to get rid of.
You laugh at corn? You have never had handmade tortillas.
On the rhubarb theme: and if you eat the leaves you’re gonna have a bad time
For sure.
Unlike 2016 when there were like 20 candidates, by the time the primaries start there looks like there might only be one or two serious candidates against Trump. The sooner it gets winnowed down, the better.
What reason is there for Scott, Hutchinson or Pence to still be running? Can’t believe any of them have much money coming in. Dead men walking. Add DeSantis to that, too.
Logic doesn't always dictate these decisions though. Ego does.
I’m sure you’re right on that. Hate to even bring this up since I’m old enough to remember Bobby Kennedy. If I was Mike Pence I’d be a little nervous being on the campaign trail and also being a witness for the prosecution.
DeSantis is sinking, perhaps he has a life raft, time will tell. I do not think any of the rest of the candidates will create enough of a stir to really make this competitive. Interestingly, we were in a rest stop today and someone started talking to us, as my husband had a NH t shirt on. He’s originally from way upstate NY, retired to FL and after 8 years moved out of Florida 3 weeks ago. He hated Florida (interestingly, he lived in the development across the street from my dads) and couldn’t wait to get out. Yes, he mentioned heat but said that didn’t drive him out. He said there were 2 big issues, one being the rise in cost of homeowners insurance. He claimed that he went from $1500.00 up to $8,000 and that was enough of that. The bigger reason was DeSantis, he said that people in Florida hated him and his politics. Who knows. I can not stand DeSantis and agree, he isn’t the sane alternative to Trump. Sadly, any sane alternative won’t get the traction with the political climate we are in now.
Sounds like how my wife and I feel. This place was OK 8 years ago when we arrived. After Trump and DeSatan, it's gone to hell. Hard to believe, but it's true.
My dad moved to Florida (life long NJ resident) in 2017 and passed away 1/1/23. He moved down after my mom had passed away, had a single family home (a little south of Ocala) and enjoyed getting out of the cold. I am an only child, so what to do with the house was ultimately my decision. Neither of us want anything to do with Florida, perhaps a vacation to Naples or the keys, but that’s about it. No way did we want to live in Florida, not even snow birding. I sold the house.
Now if the other wannabe's could follow DeSatan's example, and then Trump could dine on the Fatal Hamberder.....
Stick a fork in it. He’s done.
The worst of it is that, setting the entire campaign aside and leapfrogging into a horrific, dystopian future...De Santis would be a TERRIBLE president...perhaps second only to DJT in the pantheon of awful !
Has there been a poll asking trump voters who they would vote for if trump wasn’t an option?
Chris - really appreciate your pulling this together. You have, rightfully, been raising questions about the DeSantis candidacy for a while. What I read from your summary is the campaign is running out of money, so they now have to pick and choose where they hope to get the most value for their last few dollars. Their spending wildly early on, as you also highlighted, has drained the coffers. it feels like the campaign is in the emergency room, is being given oxygen, and a ventilator is coming down the hall. GRD could still recover enough to make it to Super Tuesday, however, when the core patient is somewhat lifeless on a good day, I am not sure there is a magic prescription which can not only bring the patient to life, but also bring the campaign to life as well.
The one positive for him is this week is his commitment to head to Florida to address both the racial shooting in Jacksonville and the hurricane preparation and recovery efforts. It does make him look like he is being a leader (dare I say, Presidential), and is focused on what should be important. I would not be surprised if his efforts over the last couple of days, even with the hecklers and gaffes, will give him a boost in Iowa - key will be, if the boost happens, can he consolidate and extend it?
Mike, I agree. DeSantis just being governor this week has been one of the best weeks for him since he entered the presidential race.
I just don't personally see the spark in DeSantis as a national candidate. I think they can change staff all the want but, ultimately, the most likely problem is the candidate.
I, for one, never felt DeSantis would play well outside of Florida. The Florida constituency is unique, which he was able to take advantage of, yet I cannot help but think it would be very different if he were up for election this year, or even next year, for Governor.