In every presidential election, people are looking for change. There is no way on God's green earth that Donald Trump represents change. He's been in the race and in our face for 9 years now. Wherever he speaks, he says nothing new--always the same outlook, which is combative and depressing. For Trump, tomorrow's debate will largely be about whether or not he can speak in complete sentences.
Trump threatened yesterday to jail election officials he considers cheats from the 2020 election that he also recently admitted that he lost "by a whisker". So did he lose, or was it fraud? He has had 4 years to produce the evidence that there was widespread election fraud.....and all we get is crickets. I'm so sick of his lies.
I get sick and tired of the “wrong direction” question. I too think it’s headed to hell in a hand basket, but I place the blame entirely on past Republican presidents, both houses of Congress and on the corrupt courts.
Moreover, since we seem to be frozen into a binary choice between two established parties using the word “change” is euphemistic. The only change is wild swings in direction leading to a plethora of unintended consequences.
It’s like driving a car without a steering wheel. The only way to keep it in its lane is to occasionally swat the steering column with a bat from one side to the other. The only outcome is to end in a ditch off the shoulder and the only question is which side of the road the ditch will be on.
Most of these numbers are meaningful, but the right track/wrong track ones I don’t think matter. “Wrong track” has substantially lead “right track” for as long as I can remember. Americans are just perpetually unhappy, even when things are pretty OK.
Based on this polling (not the 48-47% as much as the 60% who want change), she's being too cautious avoiding the media and placating her left-wing base. It's possible that Trump will self-destruct tomorrow, but absent this I can see why Nate Silver considers him a favorite now. I don't think abortion will be enough to win given the threat in most states is diminishing. She needs to move right on immigration/border security. Her current risk averse strategy is losing.
Nobody, nobody will believe her if she moves to the right on these issues in the 11th hour. Remember, she’s been there for nearly 4 years! It cracks me up when she says “on day 1” this & that. Most liberal senator in the U.S. Senate cannot convince the majority of voters she’s now in favor of border security. It’s nonsensical
I understand your skepticism but Harris does have a couple of viable ways to address the issue. The VP has a voice in an administration but, at the end of the day, makes no decisions. She will need to talk about her role in seeking to reduce the number of immigrants trying to leave Central America for the US. She did make some progress with that.
In addition, Harris has to emphasize her support for the bipartisan Senate bill that was passed (better late than never) but subsequently killed by Trump and Johnson in the House. The Republicans look like political hypocrites there and Harris should pound that point home.
She could also bring up Project 2025 and how much that immigration plan of interment camps and relocation/deport will cost. For what might come look at UK. UK tried under the Tories to fly folks to Rwanda. It was $669m for 300 people. It was a fiasco. First was the bill to pay Rwanda,which was half of the amount. It's another Trump "Mexico to pay" thing. This means taxpayers will foot this bill, of billions and billions. Only legislation will work and more agents and diplomacy by working with nations. Wall doesn't work since not enough cash for eminent domain purchases or environmental barriers. If people think the economy is bad now, Trump will tank it. New tax structure means middle class pays more. Tariffs will mean tax on goods coming in which the buyer will pay. Deportation costs. Another big tax cut for super wealthy is planned. Trump has no sense of money, which is why he went bankrupt too many times. He is the spend, spend, spend president.
What nationwide political candidate (not State) does Harris most remind you of at this point in her political race? Should Republicans confront abortion head on, instead of running away from it (Kelly Ayotte, the Republican in NH, has done this)? Should Democrats do so on immigration?
Another great article by Byron York in the Washington Examiner today! Recalling how awful, democrats, felt VP Harris was doing up to the point JB mental abilities were exposed. Yes, VP Harris is not the candidates the Dems want. So many more polished and capable candidates sitting on the bench! JB legacy will include how he, through arrogance, allowed President Trump back in the WH.
But ... but ... I agree with the 51% of respondents who think that Donald Trump would be a change from current policies ... (I (personally) believe that would be a change in a terrible direction) So, I would answer that Trump is more likely to represent 'change' ... but that does not imply that I would vote for Trump. Interpreting the 'change' response requires a follow-up question that was either (a) not in the poll ... or ... (b) in the poll but not reported in your piece. (Something like 'If you responded that candidate x represents change, is the direction of that change something you would vote for?') I think that your overall assessment of the implications of this one poll are probably correct, but I think without more information there is very little that I learn from the "change" question and the tabulated response.
I think the 12% that need to know more about Trump is a reminder that the people like myself who read this newsletter are NOT representative of the broader electorate. Most people have lives beyond tracking politics. The 31% who don't know Harris is an opportunity for both side - who defines her first? Harris has benefitted from being the "generic Democrat" but as Chris noted she needs to break from Biden in some material way or else she will be deemed as more of the same and that's a losing formula. Keeping Biden's campaign team seems like a mistake but time will tell.
Good report on the polling (better than what Dana Bash did on CNN... seems that CNN in the AM is becoming just a headline service). Looks like the Harris campaign has work to do on getting voters' trust on the economy. This is possibly where her money advantage can come into play with radio and TV advertising.
A tell about the bias (accidental or not) which exits in a poll is to look at the % importance of the economy vs abortion as an issue. If it’s close to 50/50 you’ve likely got a poll with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. If it’s skewed more in either direction, one demographic is being oversampled. Given that most red states are now passing pro abortion bills, requiring Republicans to vote for that, it might be that national polling is not capturing that dynamic. And the reason? Americans aren’t just Republicans and Democrats anymore. They have complex views which cross party lines. We aren’t living in 1954 anymore lol
The 31% who say they don’t know enough about Harris (vs 12% for Trump) is an opportunity for Harris. She should be able to pick up a good portion of those people as they become more familiar with her.
I'm a Trump supporter (well, supporting Trump over Harris, not really a Trump fan) but I think too much is being made of this one poll. I'm really waiting for the debate to see how that shakes out.
I agree 100%. From the NYT itself "The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones. In recent Times/Siena polls, more than 90 percent of voters were reached by cellphone."
Not really gonna be that close. Been saying it for awhile now. VP Harris is not the candidate the Dems or anyone wants, totally stuck with her after JB mental decline seen by all. She can’t seperate herself from this awful administration that the vast majority want a change from! VP Harris trying desperately to be someone she’s not, trying to change many many major policy philosophies (voters see through this). Everything is a mess, economy, foreign wars, immigration, caused by this administration. VP Harris trying to run an “Orange man bad” campaign. It’s what you do when you have nothing else. HRC tried it too….. bottom line, not a GOP talking point, San Francisco liberal policies don’t and won’t play in the much needed swing states. Walz helps little, major blunder not taking Shapiro, bad ticket, bad policies, bad result coming.
The issue is that Republicans agree with you Dutch but not Democrats. That’s why the election polling data is so close. Trump’s threats just drives Americans to vote Democratic. Democrats keep over performing in special elections which show how wrong polling data is. And remember, polls may give Trump 100% chance of winning and still be wrong as only surveys 1500 people not 250 million. That must make Republicans nervous
I wonder about the 60% of people who say the country is headed in the wrong direction because I would have been in that demographic since 2010 or so. For me, it is always a reflection of my legislators, not the president as much. It has been downhill since the Tea Party to where we are today with the Republican Party having imploded.
In every presidential election, people are looking for change. There is no way on God's green earth that Donald Trump represents change. He's been in the race and in our face for 9 years now. Wherever he speaks, he says nothing new--always the same outlook, which is combative and depressing. For Trump, tomorrow's debate will largely be about whether or not he can speak in complete sentences.
Trump threatened yesterday to jail election officials he considers cheats from the 2020 election that he also recently admitted that he lost "by a whisker". So did he lose, or was it fraud? He has had 4 years to produce the evidence that there was widespread election fraud.....and all we get is crickets. I'm so sick of his lies.
I get sick and tired of the “wrong direction” question. I too think it’s headed to hell in a hand basket, but I place the blame entirely on past Republican presidents, both houses of Congress and on the corrupt courts.
Moreover, since we seem to be frozen into a binary choice between two established parties using the word “change” is euphemistic. The only change is wild swings in direction leading to a plethora of unintended consequences.
It’s like driving a car without a steering wheel. The only way to keep it in its lane is to occasionally swat the steering column with a bat from one side to the other. The only outcome is to end in a ditch off the shoulder and the only question is which side of the road the ditch will be on.
💯
Most of these numbers are meaningful, but the right track/wrong track ones I don’t think matter. “Wrong track” has substantially lead “right track” for as long as I can remember. Americans are just perpetually unhappy, even when things are pretty OK.
Based on this polling (not the 48-47% as much as the 60% who want change), she's being too cautious avoiding the media and placating her left-wing base. It's possible that Trump will self-destruct tomorrow, but absent this I can see why Nate Silver considers him a favorite now. I don't think abortion will be enough to win given the threat in most states is diminishing. She needs to move right on immigration/border security. Her current risk averse strategy is losing.
Nobody, nobody will believe her if she moves to the right on these issues in the 11th hour. Remember, she’s been there for nearly 4 years! It cracks me up when she says “on day 1” this & that. Most liberal senator in the U.S. Senate cannot convince the majority of voters she’s now in favor of border security. It’s nonsensical
I understand your skepticism but Harris does have a couple of viable ways to address the issue. The VP has a voice in an administration but, at the end of the day, makes no decisions. She will need to talk about her role in seeking to reduce the number of immigrants trying to leave Central America for the US. She did make some progress with that.
In addition, Harris has to emphasize her support for the bipartisan Senate bill that was passed (better late than never) but subsequently killed by Trump and Johnson in the House. The Republicans look like political hypocrites there and Harris should pound that point home.
She could also bring up Project 2025 and how much that immigration plan of interment camps and relocation/deport will cost. For what might come look at UK. UK tried under the Tories to fly folks to Rwanda. It was $669m for 300 people. It was a fiasco. First was the bill to pay Rwanda,which was half of the amount. It's another Trump "Mexico to pay" thing. This means taxpayers will foot this bill, of billions and billions. Only legislation will work and more agents and diplomacy by working with nations. Wall doesn't work since not enough cash for eminent domain purchases or environmental barriers. If people think the economy is bad now, Trump will tank it. New tax structure means middle class pays more. Tariffs will mean tax on goods coming in which the buyer will pay. Deportation costs. Another big tax cut for super wealthy is planned. Trump has no sense of money, which is why he went bankrupt too many times. He is the spend, spend, spend president.
drive prices 10% higher with an across the board tax on all imports? better equipped to handle the economy, sure...
What nationwide political candidate (not State) does Harris most remind you of at this point in her political race? Should Republicans confront abortion head on, instead of running away from it (Kelly Ayotte, the Republican in NH, has done this)? Should Democrats do so on immigration?
Another great article by Byron York in the Washington Examiner today! Recalling how awful, democrats, felt VP Harris was doing up to the point JB mental abilities were exposed. Yes, VP Harris is not the candidates the Dems want. So many more polished and capable candidates sitting on the bench! JB legacy will include how he, through arrogance, allowed President Trump back in the WH.
But ... but ... I agree with the 51% of respondents who think that Donald Trump would be a change from current policies ... (I (personally) believe that would be a change in a terrible direction) So, I would answer that Trump is more likely to represent 'change' ... but that does not imply that I would vote for Trump. Interpreting the 'change' response requires a follow-up question that was either (a) not in the poll ... or ... (b) in the poll but not reported in your piece. (Something like 'If you responded that candidate x represents change, is the direction of that change something you would vote for?') I think that your overall assessment of the implications of this one poll are probably correct, but I think without more information there is very little that I learn from the "change" question and the tabulated response.
I think the 12% that need to know more about Trump is a reminder that the people like myself who read this newsletter are NOT representative of the broader electorate. Most people have lives beyond tracking politics. The 31% who don't know Harris is an opportunity for both side - who defines her first? Harris has benefitted from being the "generic Democrat" but as Chris noted she needs to break from Biden in some material way or else she will be deemed as more of the same and that's a losing formula. Keeping Biden's campaign team seems like a mistake but time will tell.
Good report on the polling (better than what Dana Bash did on CNN... seems that CNN in the AM is becoming just a headline service). Looks like the Harris campaign has work to do on getting voters' trust on the economy. This is possibly where her money advantage can come into play with radio and TV advertising.
A tell about the bias (accidental or not) which exits in a poll is to look at the % importance of the economy vs abortion as an issue. If it’s close to 50/50 you’ve likely got a poll with an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. If it’s skewed more in either direction, one demographic is being oversampled. Given that most red states are now passing pro abortion bills, requiring Republicans to vote for that, it might be that national polling is not capturing that dynamic. And the reason? Americans aren’t just Republicans and Democrats anymore. They have complex views which cross party lines. We aren’t living in 1954 anymore lol
The 31% who say they don’t know enough about Harris (vs 12% for Trump) is an opportunity for Harris. She should be able to pick up a good portion of those people as they become more familiar with her.
I'm a Trump supporter (well, supporting Trump over Harris, not really a Trump fan) but I think too much is being made of this one poll. I'm really waiting for the debate to see how that shakes out.
I agree 100%. From the NYT itself "The New York Times/Siena College Poll is conducted by phone using live interviewers at call centers based in Florida, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Respondents are randomly selected from a national list of registered voters, and we call voters both on landlines and cellphones. In recent Times/Siena polls, more than 90 percent of voters were reached by cellphone."
https://www.nytimes.com/article/times-siena-poll-methodology.html#link-2f330597
In other words, not LIKELY but REGISTERED voters. And the voters have to answer their phones from a strange caller. That's something I ever do.
Not really gonna be that close. Been saying it for awhile now. VP Harris is not the candidate the Dems or anyone wants, totally stuck with her after JB mental decline seen by all. She can’t seperate herself from this awful administration that the vast majority want a change from! VP Harris trying desperately to be someone she’s not, trying to change many many major policy philosophies (voters see through this). Everything is a mess, economy, foreign wars, immigration, caused by this administration. VP Harris trying to run an “Orange man bad” campaign. It’s what you do when you have nothing else. HRC tried it too….. bottom line, not a GOP talking point, San Francisco liberal policies don’t and won’t play in the much needed swing states. Walz helps little, major blunder not taking Shapiro, bad ticket, bad policies, bad result coming.
The issue is that Republicans agree with you Dutch but not Democrats. That’s why the election polling data is so close. Trump’s threats just drives Americans to vote Democratic. Democrats keep over performing in special elections which show how wrong polling data is. And remember, polls may give Trump 100% chance of winning and still be wrong as only surveys 1500 people not 250 million. That must make Republicans nervous
Folks constantly say that she did nothing for 3 1/2 years. Have people forgotten that she is the Vice President, not the President?
Her directives come from him or his advisers. Historically, Veeps don’t do much unless told to by the President.
Oh, and let’s not forget that they are the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.
Tomorrow is going to be a mail biter.
Trump will be his usually annoying self, muted mic or not!
Good Luck VP Harris! Stay focused and go get him!!
I wonder about the 60% of people who say the country is headed in the wrong direction because I would have been in that demographic since 2010 or so. For me, it is always a reflection of my legislators, not the president as much. It has been downhill since the Tea Party to where we are today with the Republican Party having imploded.