1) First is that I’d rather be the Democrats than the Republicans, in this circumstance. It may or may not be indicative of national sentiment, but it’s still better for Dems.
2) Secondly, and most importantly, though you make it very clear how low the turnout was, what you bypassed completely is what I look to a political analyst for: what does that tell us about motivation? There’s a few ways to look at this (Jay Kuo’s article on this same election lays out possible takes), so what are they and what could it tell us about November 2024?
One possible take with implications for the general is that Dems are *more* highly motivated than Reps, especially when you acknowledge that this was a *solid* red district and Dems had to know that their guy simply wasn’t going to win. Yet they went out and voted *anyway*. That’s a good sign that Dems AREN’T going to stay home in November!
One other take is also being reflected in the gradual shift in polling, when you factor in “likely” voters: Biden is at a MUCH higher place in those polls with “likely” voters. I know that *how* one determines who is “likely” is the art to the science of polling, but let’s still give it some thought. I see this special election corroborating what those polls are showing: voters that will “likely” vote in November (evidenced by Dems getting out in a special that they KNEW they weren’t going to win) will definitely vote for Biden, by 5% to 8% more.
As some say, polls don’t tell us who’s going to get out and vote, but an *actual* election tells us MUCH more.
Chris, I love to see you branching out to other races and issues. Just so much Trump v Biden can be digested in any given week. And the down ballot races can be important checks and balances regardless who is POTUS. One thing about the shift of voters between parties. Some of the voters MAGA attracted are unreliable. They may not come out at all or may come out only if Trump is on the ballot. Some of the voters who have shifted to Ds- ie, the college educated- are very reliable. So the conventional wisdom that Ds need big turnout, may be less true now.
I would also like to see a broader range of issues discussed. I don’t even read the poll results anymore. Things could change next month due to the terms of Trump’s sentencing, his behavior, and the MAGAT response. Pray for peace.
2 possible factors: (1) D candidate was a bona-fide Hillary 'deplorable', not the D stereotypical college-educated upmarket candidate; (2) Kripchak is a Slavic last name in a district with a Slavic population for whom the war in Ukraine is personal. BTW, Ukrainians are Slavs, not Russians. (Hint: Ukraine was part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire.) Was Johnson not supporting US military assistance to Ukraine? In a very low turnout election, voters motivated to support Ukraine could make a difference.
Lessons for Democrats? Embrace your deplorables! And if the district/state has a Slavic population, reach out to them concerning support for Ukraine.
@Chris, Nate Silver tweeted this yesterday, and would love your take on it: "Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask."
First, I love your Yankee Hotel Foxtrot (Wilco) shirt! Second, this is another time I'm longing for advice on how to help GOTV efforts during this challenging but vital election season - any tips?
Appreciate your read on this, Chris.
2 things that immediately come to mind:
1) First is that I’d rather be the Democrats than the Republicans, in this circumstance. It may or may not be indicative of national sentiment, but it’s still better for Dems.
2) Secondly, and most importantly, though you make it very clear how low the turnout was, what you bypassed completely is what I look to a political analyst for: what does that tell us about motivation? There’s a few ways to look at this (Jay Kuo’s article on this same election lays out possible takes), so what are they and what could it tell us about November 2024?
One possible take with implications for the general is that Dems are *more* highly motivated than Reps, especially when you acknowledge that this was a *solid* red district and Dems had to know that their guy simply wasn’t going to win. Yet they went out and voted *anyway*. That’s a good sign that Dems AREN’T going to stay home in November!
One other take is also being reflected in the gradual shift in polling, when you factor in “likely” voters: Biden is at a MUCH higher place in those polls with “likely” voters. I know that *how* one determines who is “likely” is the art to the science of polling, but let’s still give it some thought. I see this special election corroborating what those polls are showing: voters that will “likely” vote in November (evidenced by Dems getting out in a special that they KNEW they weren’t going to win) will definitely vote for Biden, by 5% to 8% more.
As some say, polls don’t tell us who’s going to get out and vote, but an *actual* election tells us MUCH more.
Chris, I love to see you branching out to other races and issues. Just so much Trump v Biden can be digested in any given week. And the down ballot races can be important checks and balances regardless who is POTUS. One thing about the shift of voters between parties. Some of the voters MAGA attracted are unreliable. They may not come out at all or may come out only if Trump is on the ballot. Some of the voters who have shifted to Ds- ie, the college educated- are very reliable. So the conventional wisdom that Ds need big turnout, may be less true now.
I would also like to see a broader range of issues discussed. I don’t even read the poll results anymore. Things could change next month due to the terms of Trump’s sentencing, his behavior, and the MAGAT response. Pray for peace.
2 possible factors: (1) D candidate was a bona-fide Hillary 'deplorable', not the D stereotypical college-educated upmarket candidate; (2) Kripchak is a Slavic last name in a district with a Slavic population for whom the war in Ukraine is personal. BTW, Ukrainians are Slavs, not Russians. (Hint: Ukraine was part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire.) Was Johnson not supporting US military assistance to Ukraine? In a very low turnout election, voters motivated to support Ukraine could make a difference.
Lessons for Democrats? Embrace your deplorables! And if the district/state has a Slavic population, reach out to them concerning support for Ukraine.
@Chris, Nate Silver tweeted this yesterday, and would love your take on it: "Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask."
Very fair to ask! It’s the elephant in the room that Chris really doesn’t wanna talk about.
Per Ohio, a W is a W close really doesn’t matter….
Special election. Tiny turnout. No name candidates. Zero buzz. Non-story.
First, I love your Yankee Hotel Foxtrot (Wilco) shirt! Second, this is another time I'm longing for advice on how to help GOTV efforts during this challenging but vital election season - any tips?