I just can't understand how this is such a close race. Not knocking your research at all, I just can't wrap my head around how many people will vote for such an amoral con man (including some in my family). So incredibly depressing. Think I'll go out and do some yard work. Physical labor is good for the soul (but not TOO much--Ha)!
Joe Biden is a good and decent man who felt it his duty to run for president and defeat Trump. He is doing what he can to serve that role and defeat Trump one more time. Joe Biden is not the head of a crime family, he’s not corrupt, he’s not seeking fame and power. He’s doing what he has always done, serving his country. He’s not perfect, and he should be enjoying his retirement. But I believe if really thought he wasn’t up to it, that he would not be running again. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s what I believe.
So here’s what I see in this map (cross reffed with 538).
Biden is currently ahead in the three blue wall states that even Megyn Kelly didn’t think Trump could win in 2016 before he did: MI, WI, and PA. If Biden holds his lead in all three (not a given), Trump fairly literally can’t win. That said, 2016 is the only election since 1992 where the Dems didn’t take all three, so I’d somewhat call them lean-Dem unless something weird happens.
The Dems usually are able to win NV. That would get Biden to 276.
In 2020, Biden also got the pure gift, historically speaking, of also winning AZ and GA. GA still has two Dem Senators, as does AZ, but I don’t know if I like the odds in either of those two. But if they do go blue again… that’s running the table of what Biden did in 2020. I’d call that bordering on miraculous, but we’ll see how it goes.
Not to sell Hopium (Chris, I swear!) but I feel Democrats know how to win federal races in Nevada and there's the powerful Culinary Union, which comes out and votes, so I feel good about that one.
Arizona and Georgia are nices to haves. I feel good about the blue wall states, they lost them in 2016, but they were also flat footed and cocky and thought they were in the bag and I think they've redoubled their efforts to ensure they don't lose them again.
So the path is very narrow, but if that's the path, I don't feel terrible about it? So mild optimismium?
Here we go again , Chris Cilliza's doom and gloom prediction for President Biden. I would urge your subscribers to check out 538's more independent and balanced look at the state of the race today. President Biden has a 53% chance of winning in November. They just don't look at the Polls like Chris likes to do. They look at other fundamentals and variables and feed these variables into a model that resulted in this conclusion that Biden had 53% of winning and the convicted felon has a 47% of winning in November. People should please check out the 538 Newsletter of today. Oh and by the way that website is under a new management( ABC) I think
Chris I read the post when you first posted it . I am not asking you to feed us with stories that will make us happy. or reinforce our partisan views etc. Just give us the usual thought provoking topics in an unbiased way. Don't always try to paint Biden with doom and gloom brush and minimize his opponent's major flaws.Going by what you and many other writers like your friend Nate Silver (whom I respect for his smart ang great mind) have been saying , Biden has already lost the election that has not been held yet. That's not independent and objective view IMO.
Per the 538 report they are agreeing with what Chris has been saying all along, this is a tight race and anyone can win. To quote from their report:
“At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral College and national popular vote. Specifically, our model reckons Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, meaning he wins in slightly more than half of our model's simulations of how the election could unfold. However, Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance, so this election could still very much go either way.”
The headline of the article you posted reads, “Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast.” And yet somehow you read that as Pres. Biden is going to win.
Np James P, I did not say that Biden is going to win based on the article. What I said is that the article claimed that it gave President Biden a 53% chance of winning if the election was held today. Further more, they tapped into more detailrd and exhaustive variables including available polling data to arrive at this conclusion. They didn't just base their conclusion solely on the polls. Please read the article completely and not just the headline. Chris has kindly provided the link to the article in this Newsletter.
Very thoughtful. I just listened to their podcast to further understand all the variables they use in addition to polling. I don't think it contradicts what Chris wrote (his path IS narrow) but offers a more data driven argument for why Biden can win the states in that narrow path, if the election was held today. Nate and team plan to frequently update that model, so will keep an eye on it. Thanks for sharing.
A good and fair assessment of the race 5 months out. Allow me to give my two cents. My disagreements are based on the empirical evidence that split-ballot voting is now a relatively small amount of the votes. Given that I think GA and NV will go R. The GOP Senate candidate in NV is very strong and there is no strong state level D election in GA. But I think there's a good chance that AZ and NC go D because of the very poor candidates (Lake and Robinson) in those states. I'm sure you read what recently come out about Robinson's thoughts on Pearl Harbor, Patton etc. Never mind his more current views, which are not only abhorrent but go against what a majority of the citizens in NC believe. Again I go back to lack of split-ballot voting. Add to that the D's have much more $ and better state run organizations. Regards from Shanghai
The independent congressional elector in Nebraska and Maine could come in play. I'm wondering if the state legislatures could still change this law, or if it was voted in by referendum and not changeable at this point? If you switch the Nebraska house seat around Omaha, it results in a 269-269 tie, and a probable Trump victory as each state delegation has one vote from what I understand. My hope is that party elders on both sides might see this as an opportunity to substitute other candidates that are better for the country -- a modern day "corrupt bargain" Trump would claim.
Can't go watch The Morning today, but if I could, just FYI it would be likelier to occur if there was a clickable link here to do so. Maybe this site doesn't allow that, though.
I'd love to learn how in the world you envision Biden or any Dem winning Iowa! That is a surprise.
Another great episode, Chris! As a point of feedback, this one had a lot of quickly moving parts and could've benefitted from some PowerPoint slides or other visuals shared from your screen. Something to consider to punch up future episodes.
I just can't understand how this is such a close race. Not knocking your research at all, I just can't wrap my head around how many people will vote for such an amoral con man (including some in my family). So incredibly depressing. Think I'll go out and do some yard work. Physical labor is good for the soul (but not TOO much--Ha)!
Joe Biden is a good and decent man who felt it his duty to run for president and defeat Trump. He is doing what he can to serve that role and defeat Trump one more time. Joe Biden is not the head of a crime family, he’s not corrupt, he’s not seeking fame and power. He’s doing what he has always done, serving his country. He’s not perfect, and he should be enjoying his retirement. But I believe if really thought he wasn’t up to it, that he would not be running again. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s what I believe.
So here’s what I see in this map (cross reffed with 538).
Biden is currently ahead in the three blue wall states that even Megyn Kelly didn’t think Trump could win in 2016 before he did: MI, WI, and PA. If Biden holds his lead in all three (not a given), Trump fairly literally can’t win. That said, 2016 is the only election since 1992 where the Dems didn’t take all three, so I’d somewhat call them lean-Dem unless something weird happens.
The Dems usually are able to win NV. That would get Biden to 276.
In 2020, Biden also got the pure gift, historically speaking, of also winning AZ and GA. GA still has two Dem Senators, as does AZ, but I don’t know if I like the odds in either of those two. But if they do go blue again… that’s running the table of what Biden did in 2020. I’d call that bordering on miraculous, but we’ll see how it goes.
Not to sell Hopium (Chris, I swear!) but I feel Democrats know how to win federal races in Nevada and there's the powerful Culinary Union, which comes out and votes, so I feel good about that one.
Arizona and Georgia are nices to haves. I feel good about the blue wall states, they lost them in 2016, but they were also flat footed and cocky and thought they were in the bag and I think they've redoubled their efforts to ensure they don't lose them again.
So the path is very narrow, but if that's the path, I don't feel terrible about it? So mild optimismium?
Fair enough. Agree that Dems have shown they can win Nevada...
Here we go again , Chris Cilliza's doom and gloom prediction for President Biden. I would urge your subscribers to check out 538's more independent and balanced look at the state of the race today. President Biden has a 53% chance of winning in November. They just don't look at the Polls like Chris likes to do. They look at other fundamentals and variables and feed these variables into a model that resulted in this conclusion that Biden had 53% of winning and the convicted felon has a 47% of winning in November. People should please check out the 538 Newsletter of today. Oh and by the way that website is under a new management( ABC) I think
Dr, please read this: https://chriscillizza.substack.com/p/why-i-dont-sell-hopium
Chris I read the post when you first posted it . I am not asking you to feed us with stories that will make us happy. or reinforce our partisan views etc. Just give us the usual thought provoking topics in an unbiased way. Don't always try to paint Biden with doom and gloom brush and minimize his opponent's major flaws.Going by what you and many other writers like your friend Nate Silver (whom I respect for his smart ang great mind) have been saying , Biden has already lost the election that has not been held yet. That's not independent and objective view IMO.
Here's the link: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-biden-tied-538s-new-election-forecast/story?id=110789256
Per the 538 report they are agreeing with what Chris has been saying all along, this is a tight race and anyone can win. To quote from their report:
“At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral College and national popular vote. Specifically, our model reckons Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, meaning he wins in slightly more than half of our model's simulations of how the election could unfold. However, Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance, so this election could still very much go either way.”
The headline of the article you posted reads, “Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast.” And yet somehow you read that as Pres. Biden is going to win.
Np James P, I did not say that Biden is going to win based on the article. What I said is that the article claimed that it gave President Biden a 53% chance of winning if the election was held today. Further more, they tapped into more detailrd and exhaustive variables including available polling data to arrive at this conclusion. They didn't just base their conclusion solely on the polls. Please read the article completely and not just the headline. Chris has kindly provided the link to the article in this Newsletter.
Do you feel under the Pres. Biden administration the US had, or is in , a recession?
No, by any metric , USA is not in a Depression. America has the strongest economy among all the developed nations
I’m not asking are we in a depression. I am asking you whether or not you believe the US entered a recession during Pres. Biden’s term.
Yes, I know, I meant to say RECESSION and not Depression
Can you share a link? I don’t see this prediction on their site. I do however see a 37% approval rating for Biden on that site.
Ah, found it: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-biden-tied-538s-new-election-forecast/story?id=110789256
So what do you think about the article?
Very thoughtful. I just listened to their podcast to further understand all the variables they use in addition to polling. I don't think it contradicts what Chris wrote (his path IS narrow) but offers a more data driven argument for why Biden can win the states in that narrow path, if the election was held today. Nate and team plan to frequently update that model, so will keep an eye on it. Thanks for sharing.
Hi Chris,
A good and fair assessment of the race 5 months out. Allow me to give my two cents. My disagreements are based on the empirical evidence that split-ballot voting is now a relatively small amount of the votes. Given that I think GA and NV will go R. The GOP Senate candidate in NV is very strong and there is no strong state level D election in GA. But I think there's a good chance that AZ and NC go D because of the very poor candidates (Lake and Robinson) in those states. I'm sure you read what recently come out about Robinson's thoughts on Pearl Harbor, Patton etc. Never mind his more current views, which are not only abhorrent but go against what a majority of the citizens in NC believe. Again I go back to lack of split-ballot voting. Add to that the D's have much more $ and better state run organizations. Regards from Shanghai
I looked at the map and I can't see any way that Biden Wins Iowa. That drops him to 271 right away.
If Biden needs to win ALL of the close races, and Trump only needs to win ONE of them, hopium and ponies should be in short supply.
The independent congressional elector in Nebraska and Maine could come in play. I'm wondering if the state legislatures could still change this law, or if it was voted in by referendum and not changeable at this point? If you switch the Nebraska house seat around Omaha, it results in a 269-269 tie, and a probable Trump victory as each state delegation has one vote from what I understand. My hope is that party elders on both sides might see this as an opportunity to substitute other candidates that are better for the country -- a modern day "corrupt bargain" Trump would claim.
Iowa?!?
I am wrong! Iowa is going R. Need to fix!
This is now fixed. 270 D-268 R.
Can't go watch The Morning today, but if I could, just FYI it would be likelier to occur if there was a clickable link here to do so. Maybe this site doesn't allow that, though.
I'd love to learn how in the world you envision Biden or any Dem winning Iowa! That is a surprise.
I made a mistake! Fixed now!
Another great episode, Chris! As a point of feedback, this one had a lot of quickly moving parts and could've benefitted from some PowerPoint slides or other visuals shared from your screen. Something to consider to punch up future episodes.
I don't really know how to do that!
Advice welcome!
There are lots of free training videos on YouTube for this kind of thing. I think Microsoft might have some free ones too.
Ok, TY!
How dare you point out that things don't look so rosy for Biden! You are gonna get so crushed in the comments Chris.
I KNOW.
But like, I don't sell Hopium.
🤣
Make the ffffff centre blue as well, guys and gals...😎💙🧘🏻♀️🌌