A week ago, I put the odds of Joe Biden remaining as the Democratic presidential nominee at 25-30%. Today, I think it’s more like 50-50.
Why? Simple: Because Biden is still the nominee. And every day he remains the nominee makes it more likely he holds on.
Politics work on momentum. In the immediate aftermath of the June 27 presidential debate, the prevailing feeling among Democrats was complete and utter panic.
Biden has lost it! He is going to cost us the White House, the Senate and the House! He has to go!
But, now, 12 days later? Biden’s debate performance seems bad, yes, but there are plenty of Democrats who have convinced themselves that it’s all being overblown by the media and, really, Biden is totally fine.
And if Biden can make it through next week — when Donald Trump will make his vice presidential pick and the political reporting world will all be in Milwaukee to cover the Republican National Convention — well, then, he might be out of the woods.
Now. Whether Biden survives as the Democratic nominee is a very different question than whether he has done permanent damage to himself in the eyes of voters and is an underdog to Trump. (I think he has — and is.)
But, if survival was the goal, Biden is closer to achieving it than he was last week. Much closer.
All that and more in today’s edition of The Morning.
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