On Wednesday night, I came across this tweet from Nate Silver (of the
Substack):
Which is super interesting to me. I think Nate and I both agree that after the first debate — now nine days ago — Harris appears to have consolidated her position as the narrow but clear leader over Donald Trump in national polls. And she also appears to have moved ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan with Pennsylvania looking close.
As I wrote earlier this week, Harris is now on the right trajectory to win the race. Which, again, doesn’t mean she WILL win the race. But it does mean she is hitting the polling marks — 4+ point lead nationally, specifically —that she needs to win.
Which is a change from where she was a few weeks ago. And with that change could come an adjustment in strategy — debate strategy in particular.
Following the first debate, Harris and her campaign aggressively pushed for more debates with Trump. The goal was clear: Show she was entirely unafraid of him and was even eager to get back on stage with him.
Trump appeared to rule out future debates, insisting he had won the first one (he did not) and that all the possible moderators were too biased against him for it to be fair.
Over the last week, the Harris team has gone quieter in their push for another debate — although most reporting suggests they are still game to do it.
I think it’s worth considering that another debate might not actually benefit Harris, politically speaking. She is now in a poll position where she can win the race. Sure, voters want to know more about her but she could scratch that itch via a friendly set of media interviews or a townhall event or two.
Another debate is a big risk when you are ahead — and Harris is ahead albeit narrowly.
Just some food for thought…
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