The Morning: The BIG question I think about

Here’s what we know: Donald Trump built an electoral coalition the likes of which we have never seen — for a Republican — before.

He did well among young men. He won Latino men. He won one in every three non-white voters.

The key question going forward then is this: Are we watching a new Republican coalition form? Or is this coalition entirely unique to Trump — and can’t be replicated by other Republican candidates?

The short answer is we don’t know just yet — and may not know until 2026 or even 2028.

But I do think we have one interesting data point from the 2024 election: In 4 states where Trump won — Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan — the Democratic Senate candidate also won.

Which is very rare. In fact, of the 69 Senate races on the ballot in 2016 and 2020, in only ONE of them did the party that won the presidential race in the state not also win the Senate race.

But it happened FOUR times in 2024 alone.

This chart — via the Cook Political Report — comparing under- and overperformance between the top of the ticket and the Senate is instructive on that front:

That consistent underperformance of Trump by GOP Senate candisates in swing states leads me to believe that it might just be a Trump coalition rather than a broader Republican coalition.

But that’s only ONE set of data points. To be continued….

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