There are two distinctly different story lines kicking around this morning about the attempts to confirm former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz as Attorney General.
On the one hand, there’s this from Axios:
President-elect Trump is personally calling senators to press them to confirm former Rep. Matt Gaetz to be his attorney general, according to senators who have spoken with Trump.
Trump is digging in on his embattled and controversial nominee and is sending an unmistakable message to Senate Republicans that he expects him to be confirmed.
“He clearly wants Matt Gaetz,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who received a call from Trump. “He believes Matt Gaetz is the one person who will have the fearlessness and ferociousness, really, to do what needs doing at the Department of Justice.”
Which, ok!
Then there’s this from Politico’s Playbook this morning:
When it comes to DONALD TRUMP’s Cabinet nominees, the company line among Senate Republicans is this: The incoming president deserves deference in staffing his administration, and we will keep an “open mind” on his selections.
Behind the scenes, Senate Republicans are delivering a starkly different message when it comes to one particular nominee: AG-designate MATT GAETZ.
Numerous GOP members have indicated to Trump and his team that they believe Gaetz has little chance of being confirmed, according to multiple Senate Republican and Trump world sources. And they’re privately hoping Trump doesn’t make them walk the plank.
So…..which is it?
My strong sense is that Trump would absolutely like Gaetz to be his AG. And he is going to lean on Republican Senators in the short term to make that happen.
But, Trump is the ultimate pragmatist. He is not going to spend all — or even a lot — of his political capital on trying to confirm someone who is not confirmable.
I would guess that by the end of this week — or maybe early next week — unless Trump can move wavering senators, we begin to see attempts to get Gaetz out while still saving face for the president-elect and the former Congressman.
Remember that Gaetz’s fall-back plan is to run for governor of Florida in 2026 — a race where he likely would start out as the favorite. That’s especially true if he can keep the House Ethics report on allegations of sex with a minor and illegal drug use (among other things) out of the press. Given that, it behooves him to cut bait if it looks like he can’t get to 50 votes in the Senate.
Gaetz’s odds of being confirmed as AG stand at 35% this morning on Kalshi, a political betting market. That feels slightly too high to me.
The Morning is always a free post. But I very much hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber to this newsletter. You can read more about me and what I’m building here. A paid subscription is $6 a month or $60 for the year. Thank you.
Share this post