Polling, as I have said many times in this space, is equal parts art and science. It is not a pure equation that produces one specific result. It’s not a math problem.
Polling is meant to provide directional guidance — who, generally speaking, is ahead — with the acknowledgement that every poll comes with a margin of error. And that margin of error matters — although we often ignore it! — because it makes clear that there is uncertainty built into the process.
In short: The polls will almost certainly be wrong — if your definition of wrong is that they didn’t nail the result exactly.
The broader and more important question is how the polls miss. There are three basic options here:
The polls get the race directionally right even if they don’t get the numbers perfect
The polls consistently underestimate Kamala Harris’ support nationally and in swing states
The polls consistently underestimate Donald Trump’s support nationally and in swing states
Option #1 is good. A win. A sign the polling industry has got it figured out.
Options #2 and #3 are much more problematic — because they suggest that polling simply can’t figure out the modern electorate.
What would things looks like if options 2 and 3 happen? The New York Times Nate Cohn, who I don’t know but greatly admire, has broken that down in a handy-dandy chart this morning:
Keep this chart close for the next 24 hours. It’s a terrific guide on what to expect.
Basically, what it shows is that race starts effectively tied once we get all of the states that we expect to go to Trump and Harris out of the way — although the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa showing Harris ahead makes me wonder….
A miss at the level of 2020, when polls drastically underestimated Trump, gives him a relatively easy win with 312 electoral votes. A miss at the 2022 level, when Democrats overperformed polling, would put Harris into the White House with over 300 electoral votes.
If the polls right now directly translated to the actual results, Trump would win with 287 electoral votes — the closest race since George W. Bush won 286 electoral votes in 2004.
The polls will miss. This I know. The questions are a) how big they miss and b) whether that miss consistently underestimates one party or the other.
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