The one big question I have about tonight's Republican debate

Wither Trump.

(Former President Donald Trump)

In the first Republican presidential debate last month, the eight candidates on stage were asked whether they would still support Donald Trump as the Republican nominee if he was convicted of a crime.

Six of them said they would — including the likes of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who are seen as Trump’s strongest competitors. (Only Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson — both MAJOR long shots — said they wouldn’t back a convicted Trump.)

That set the mood for the entire night. Trump, who led (and leads) the primary field by a massive margin, was barely mentioned — and, when his name did come up, it was generally to praise or defend him.

“President Trump, I believe, was the best president of the 21st century,” said businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in a line that drew applause from the decidedly pro-Trump audience.

To the extent there was ANY criticism of Trump, it came in glancing form — couched in appeals to electability.

“We have to look at the fact that three-quarters of Americans don’t want a rematch between Trump and Biden,” said Haley. “And we have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America. We can’t win a general election that way.”

As the candidates — again sans Trump — get ready to take the stage in California tonight for the 2nd presidential debate, the only real question for me is this: Will ANY of the major contenders make a sustained (and repeated) case against the former president?

It seems to me like a no-brainer. Trump is so far ahead now — up 40+ points in most national polling on the race and with wide leads in Iowa and New Hampshire as well — that desperate measures are in order.

As in, if nothing changes in this race, Donald Trump is going to walk to a victory. It will be a coronation, not a contest.

Which is why it’s utterly baffling to me why no one — not really even Christie — took the chance to bash away at Trump in the first debate. It was a prime time opportunity — literally! — to make the case that someone other than Trump should be considered as the nominee.

There are some signs that the 7 candidates on stage tonight (Hutchinson didn’t qualify) will fix the error of their ways from the first debate.

Here’s DeSantis on Fox News Tuesday night, for example:

“I think it’s interesting that [Trump] is not willing to stand on that stage. I think he owes it to all the voters to show up, defend his record and articulate what he would do going forward and what he might do differently. And he’s not willing to do that. I think voters have a right to hear from all the candidates.”

Which is something! Now, telling Laura Ingraham that Trump should be there and actually saying it on the debate stage are two different things. And DeSantis has yet to show that he is willing to do the latter.

The willingness (or not) to attack Trump (and do so repeatedly throughout the debate) will be a major tell for the candidates on stage.

If they ignore Trump, they are running either a) for the vice presidential slot or b) with an eye on 2028.

If they go after Trump, they are at least willing to take a chance on this race — under the theory that we will never know if the billionaire businessman can be stopped unless and until someone actually tries.

Would it work? I don’t know!

All evidence suggests that the candidates who go after Trump most vociferously have suffered in the polls — although I would argue that Christie was not well liked by Republicans even before he launched his “stop Trump” campaign.

But, we know how this story ends if everyone on that stage just plays nice with Trump. He wins. Going away. End of story.

Might that happen even if, say, DeSantis or Haley, go after Trump tonight (and on the campaign trail in the future)? Sure. But it’s far less of a certainty.

So, that’s what I’ll be watching in the debate tonight. What storyline do you have your eye on?