A number that should make Republicans very nervous

The "Only Trump" vote emerges.

CBS News asked an interesting question in its latest national poll.

It went like this: In the 2024 election are you considering supporting only Donald Trump, Trump and other candidates or are you not considering Trump at all?

Here are the results:

That 24% of “only Trumpers” is what intrigues me. Mostly because I still can’t imagine a scenario whereby a) Donald Trump loses the Republican nomination and b) he bows out gracefully, throwing his endorsement behind the winner.

Before I get to that, it’s worth noting that such an outcome is not the most likely one right now.

That same CBS News poll showed Trump with a 58% to 22% lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with no other candidate receiving more than single-digit support.

And that’s broadly in keeping with where other polls have put the race. Trump’s lead is now nearing 30 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Looking at those numbers, you have to say that the nomination is Trump’s to lose.

But, what if he does lose it? What happens then?

There’s nothing in Trump’s history in politics to suggest that he would go away.

Yes, we all know about his ongoing false claims about the 2020 election being stolen from him. But, it goes back further than that.

When Trump lost the Iowa caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, he refused to concede — alleging wrongdoing.

“Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it,” Trump tweeted. “That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!”

He never provided any evidence of the alleged cheating.

In the 2016 general election race — where Trump BEAT Hillary Clinton — he again claimed fraud, insisting that he had won the popular vote.

“I think I did win the popular vote in a true sense,” Trump said. “I think there was tremendous cheating in California. There was tremendous cheating in New York and other places.”

He even went as far as to tell Republican Congressional leaders that 3 to 5 million illegal votes were cast in the 2016 election — which explained why he lost the popular vote to Clinton.

Trump never provided any evidence to back up those claims.

So, his decision to contest the 2020 election was the rule not the exception for Trump. It was part of a broader mentality that says he is incapable of losing and, if he does lose, he must have somehow been cheated out of victory.

Which brings me back to the “Only Trumpers” in the CBS poll.

Ask yourself what happens when you combine these two facts:

1. Trump has never admitted he lost a political race

2. One in four Republicans say they will vote only for Trump in the coming primary

The answer? Nothing good for the Republican party.

Consider the following scenario: In May 2024, DeSantis secures enough delegates to be the Republican presidential nominee.

The other contenders for the nomination, acknowledging the obvious, drop out of the race and endorse DeSantis.

Everyone that is except Trump, who continues to insist that DeSantis and his RINO establishment friends cheated their way to the nomination and that he is, actually, the rightful winner.

At which point, the 24% of “only Trumpers” would be faced with a decision. Do they capitulate to the party who is telling them that DeSantis won? Or do they continue to fight behind their guy?

It seems to me the answer is obvious — especially when you consider how the most loyal Trump voters responded to the cataclysm of January 6, 2021 and the former president’s indictment earlier this spring.

In both instances, they not only stuck by him but became even more convinced of the rightness of that decision. Rather than pull away from him, they dug in even more.

Which, if it came to pass, would mean that Trump would have a whole army of supporters standing behind his false claims and — wait for it — ready to back him if a) he ran as some sort of third party candidate or b) he urged Republicans to stay home as a means of protest against the allegedly biased result for DeSantis.

Either result would be disastrous for Republicans. A losing Trump with support from a quarter(ish) of party base would almost certainly doom the party’s chances of winning the White House in the fall of 2024.

If you think this is a far-fetched scenario, consider what Trump has already said publicly when asked whether he would commit to backing the Republican nominee in 2024.

“It would depend,” Trump said in February. “It would have to depend on who the nominee was.”

Or consider what he did in the 2016 race. After signing a much-hyped loyalty pledge in the fall of 2015, Trump abandoned the pledge the following spring.

“No, I don’t anymore,” Trump said when asked whether he still supported the pledge. “No, we’ll see who it is.”

Does that sound like a man who will fall in line if the party chooses someone other than him as the 2024 nominee?

The reality is that the Republican party has been loyal to Trump, backing him up when his political fortunes looked like they might take a turn for the worse. He has been far less loyal to it.

And come 2024, Trump is likely to — still — have a cadre of supporters who will be for him and only him in the presidential primary fight.

Which is a very dangerous thing indeed for the Republican party.