The ridiculous spin of Nikki Haley

Beyond belief.

(Nikki Haley)

Today is the New Hampshire primary. And if polls are to be believed, it will almost certainly be the end of the the GOP presidential nomination fight.

The final tracking poll from the Boston Globe released this morning showed the race this way:

Donald Trump 60%

Nikki Haley 38%

That’s the largest lead Trump has held in the Globe’s tracking poll. In other words, the momentum of the race appears almost entirely on his side going into today’s voting.

If Trump wins by anything close to the margin that he holds in the final Globe poll, it will mean that not only did he he sweep the first two voting states on the 2024 calendar but he did so in utterly dominating fashion.

How are Nikki Haley and her allies handling this?

Uh.

“We’re going to South Carolina,” Haley said today in New Hampshire. “This has always been a marathon, it’s never been a sprint. We wanted to be strong in Iowa. We want to be stronger than that in New Hampshire. We’re gonna be even stronger than that in South Carolina. We’re running the tape.”

And then there was this exchange on Fox and Friends this morning:

Host: “So there's no scenario where it stops tonight?”

Haley: “Of course not. We've already made our ad buy.”

And this from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Haley’s top surrogate in the state in a back and forth with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki:

Psaki: “If Nikki Haley loses by 19 points, is that enough to stay in the race after tomorrow?”

Sununu: “Of course.”

Haley’s campaign even put out a memo on Tuesday morning insisting that the campaign will continue beyond New Hampshire — no matter what.

“The campaign has not even begun in any of these states yet,” wrote Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney in the memo. “No ads have been aired and candidates aren’t hustling on the ground. A month in politics is a lifetime. We’re watching democracy in action. We’re letting the people have a voice. That’s how this is supposed to work.”

This is all, of course, totally ridiculous. And I will explain why.

Let’s say Haley loses 60-40 tonight (or something close to it) to Trump. The next real vote — Nevada’s February 8 caucuses are a Trump production — is a MONTH away (February 24) in Haley’s home state of South Carolina.

Here’s what will happen between now and then:

• Everyone and their brother who has been sitting on the sidelines will come out and endorse Trump, emphasizing the need for the party to come together to beat Joe Biden.

• Haley’s money will dry up. Here’s Ken Langone, a billionaire and donor to Haley on his decision-making process about giving more money to her campaign: “If she doesn’t get traction in New Hampshire, you don’t throw money down a rat hole.” Langone may be the only one saying it in public but I guarantee you he’s not the only one thinking it. Donors — big ones and small ones — like to feel that they are investing in a winner (or at least a possible winner). If Haley loses New Hampshire convincingly, that’s not what she is going to look like.

• Polling in South Carolina will tilt even more heavily to Trump. Right now he is leading by an average of 30 points. If he wins New Hampshire going away, I’d expect that lead to grow. Why? Human nature. People like to be with a winner. And the more like a winner you look, the more people get off the fence and jump behind you.

All of which presents Haley with two options: 1) Get out of the race, endorse Trump and preserve her 2028 possibilities or 2) Limp along — deeply wounded — for the next month only to be embarrassed in your home state primary.

I cannot imagine that she wants that. It’s one thing to lose in New Hampshire. It’s a whole different thing to lose in a state where you were twice elected governor.

Now, it is possible that Haley can make it to South Carolina. But that’s only possible if a) she wins New Hampshire today (an upset of TITANIC proportion) or b) narrowly loses, drastically outperforming the polls.

Either scenario would allow her to make a plausible case that she is building momentum against Trump — 3rd in Iowa, a close 2nd in New Hampshire — and that South Carolina will be the deciding factor (as it has been in so many past presidential primaries).

Candidly, I don’t see that happening. I think Trump is who the Republican base wants. Haley’s campaign, which I have long thought was excellent, seemed to lose its edge in the 8 days between Iowa and New Hampshire. (Her decision to nix two planned debates over the past week was clearly a strategic mistake.) And Trump, by contrast, has run an picture-perfect campaign to date. (I’ll have more to say on that later this week.)

Haley can say whatever she wants today. But know that whatever she says means very little if she loses the New Hampshire primary by 15 or 20 points tonight.

(Sidebar: Read Jonathan V. Last on how we need to hold candidates more accountable for their crazy spin.)

If that happens, the race is O-V-E-R. Period. Whether or not Haley somehow decides to stay in through South Carolina will be meaningless. Trump will be the nominee.