Interesting exchange. Linker is smart&clear-headed. The tribalism point you both make is key. But to the extent people are voting on issues, the media needs to go one level deeper to frame issues. The media duly reports that people think Trump is better for the economy. How about examining the underlying facts? He inherited a healthy economy ( which had recovered under Obama from the crash under Bush). Trump then cut taxes while raising spending&borrowing, which bloated the debt&set the stage for inflation. His bungling of Covid exacerbated the causes of inflation that sprung free after re-opening. It's true that Biden's spending spurred inflation; it also kept people out of poverty. But what exactly did Trump do that was good for the economy?
Thank you. And I forgot to make this point: Trump & Rs are running largely based on gripes re elevated inflation. Of course, inflation is now back to normal levels via the efforts of Biden& the Fed. Beyond that, Trump has no plan to reduce prices. His only plans seem to be cutting income taxes and raising tariffs. Cutting taxes might lead to higher inflation depending on other moving pieces. Raising tariffs clearly would lead to higher prices. So again, the media and voters need to get beyond general myths about Trump’s being good for the economy to examine the underlying facts .
“So again, the media and voters need to get beyond general myths about Trump’s being good for the economy to examine the underlying facts.” And that will never happen!
I see SO many that just post simplistic memes showing the price of gas in 2017 vs 2024 and that’s *all* they need to know! Forget that he inherited the Obama recovery and that Biden had to clean up his economic mess! That’s too complicated for most of the MAGA cult, and for those that actually *do* understand the broader economic principles, they’re generally wealthier and are just selfishly looking for tax cuts from Trump.
It’s just *so* sad that 46% of Americans voters know SO little about economic principles and don’t appear to have any motivation to educate themselves.
I grew up in Staten Island in a working class area. My friends from back then know exactly what Trump is, but will vote for him anyway. This is, I think, a good representation of the Trump voter.
What they dislike most about the Democratic Party is the identity politics. I think that if the democrats could tack more center they could win handily.
The fact that a felon and fraud like Trump could be in an effective tie should tell the dems that they’re doing something wrong.
There is nothing about the 2024 election that is "politics as usual". A Trump administration Project 2025 would mean an end to American democracy. THIS IS NOT HYPERBOLE.
Project 2025 needs more public exposure!
Here’s something for the underinformed: "The People’s Guide to Project 2025" 👇
What an excellent point. And let me build on it. The overriding theme of Project 2025 is the creation of an Imperial Presidency to an unprecedented extent. Trump and the drafters of Project 2025 need to answer whether they'd advocate the same type of super-charged POTUS if a D is elected.
"I disagree — judging from conversations I have had with people backing Trump who are neither dumb nor racist."
Yes, but they're willing to tolerate his dumbness and racism for their own benefit, which makes them just as bad as the overt dumb and racist supporters.
I didn't quit my job when my employer eliminated all DEI initiatives. I sometimes eat at Chik-Fil-A even though they donate money to anti-LGBTQ+ causes. Am I not allowed to tolerate those for my own benefit?
Of course you're "allowed to" make these choices, but let's not pretend they don't reflect back on you.
You may not quit your job over the DEI issue, but some people would. For them it may be a bridge too far. For you, you may just shrug and keep drawing a paycheck. Or maybe you're pissed, but can't afford to quit, so you advocate for equity in your workplace in other ways. Either way, the choice says something about you. Moreover, plenty of people choose not to take jobs that they can't square with their principals. I don't work at Exxon-Mobil and never would, for example.
As for Chic-fil-A, this is more inline with my comment about Trump voters. You're making a choice to support a company run by an avowed bigot just because you like their chicken a little bit more than at another restaurant? That's Trump-voter thinking all the way, and it definitely says something about you and the choices you're willing to make.
A year ago, Nate Cohn at the NYT had a breakdown of six types of Republicans:
The Moderate Establishment (14%). Highly educated, affluent, socially moderate or even liberal and often outright Never Trump.
The Traditional Conservatives (26%). Old-fashioned economic and social conservatives who oppose abortion and prefer corporate tax cuts to new tariffs. They don’t love Mr. Trump, but they do support him.
The Right Wing (26%). They watch Fox News and Newsmax. They’re “very conservative.” They’re disproportionately evangelical. They believe America is on the brink of catastrophe. And they love Mr. Trump more than any other group.
The Blue Collar Populists (12%). They’re mostly Northern, socially moderate, economic populists who hold deeply conservative views on race and immigration. Not only do they back Mr. Trump, but he himself probably counted as one a decade ago.
The Libertarian Conservatives (14%). These disproportionately Western and Midwestern conservatives value small government. They’re relatively socially moderate and isolationist, and they’re on the lower end of Trump support compared with other groups.
The Newcomers (8%). They don’t look like Republicans. They’re young, diverse and moderate. But these disaffected voters like Democrats and the “woke” left even less.
Great piece. I think there is a portion of Republicans who are already consistently voting for democrats in congressional special elections resulting in over-performing results. Potentially losing them was the reason Biden stepped aside IMO. Republican women are unlikely to admit in front of their husbands that they are voting for Harris this time to support their right to choose. So I think this is being underestimated by the polling this time. This issue and Harris is driving democratic enthusiasm to Obama levels is significant for Democrats.
As for polling accuracy. It’s never going to be accurate when less than 2000 Americans are interviewed. Measuring momentum and enthusiasm are likely better indicators. If Harris’ dips between now and Election Day, as Hillary’s did, that would be a problem.
You can have a conversation with someone and somehow know that they are not racist!
I have known some people for years, and had many conversations with them, and I never knew that they were indeed racist, until they let slip one day a racist comment or did something obviously racist.
The cold hard math is that Trump has 47-48% of the voting electorate locked, meaning Harris needs to reel in all the rest to win. Nate Silver estimates that nationally a 2-3% Harris win equates to a toss up, a 3-4% Harris win equates to 80-20% win probability, 4-5% Harris win equates to 95% probability.
Currently, Harris is on the bubble, assuming that the polling is accurate in reflecting her turnout.
In the last section Chris, where you ask "And who stops him?", the discussion left out one key variable - namely Jack Smith. If Trump loses in Nov., the Jan 6. prosecution proceeds. Yes, it will likely take over a year to complete, and yes it will give Trump yet another forum to publicly proclaim (loudly) he did not lose and he is a political victim, but it does pose significant legal peril. I'm willing to bet that the federal legal process under the direction of Judge Chutkan is an adversary Trump cannot beat.
I stopped reading after the second time he called Harris a generic Democratic candidate. A black/Asian woman vice president is not a generic Democrat. Is this pundit a real pundit or a generic pundit.
Give me a break.
The real issue is that the generic fascist is touching a real nerve with his Hitler playbook and no one is spelling out what our lives will be like if he wins. The rounding up of millions and the retribution against his opponents in and out of office and the shutting down of the media he doesn’t like is going to put all our lives in danger. Even MAGA people will purge each other.
Talk about how dangerous it will be to live under this kind of person. The Germans and the Soviets didn’t have safe lives even if they weren’t the targeted ones. No one will be safe. And here so many people have guns.
Great read Chris! The last exchange has always stuck with me. Acquiescing that everything Trump says is true, why would anyone want someone in charge that evidently is so easily taken advantage of?....
Interesting exchange. Linker is smart&clear-headed. The tribalism point you both make is key. But to the extent people are voting on issues, the media needs to go one level deeper to frame issues. The media duly reports that people think Trump is better for the economy. How about examining the underlying facts? He inherited a healthy economy ( which had recovered under Obama from the crash under Bush). Trump then cut taxes while raising spending&borrowing, which bloated the debt&set the stage for inflation. His bungling of Covid exacerbated the causes of inflation that sprung free after re-opening. It's true that Biden's spending spurred inflation; it also kept people out of poverty. But what exactly did Trump do that was good for the economy?
THIS! Thank you!
Thank you. And I forgot to make this point: Trump & Rs are running largely based on gripes re elevated inflation. Of course, inflation is now back to normal levels via the efforts of Biden& the Fed. Beyond that, Trump has no plan to reduce prices. His only plans seem to be cutting income taxes and raising tariffs. Cutting taxes might lead to higher inflation depending on other moving pieces. Raising tariffs clearly would lead to higher prices. So again, the media and voters need to get beyond general myths about Trump’s being good for the economy to examine the underlying facts .
“So again, the media and voters need to get beyond general myths about Trump’s being good for the economy to examine the underlying facts.” And that will never happen!
I see SO many that just post simplistic memes showing the price of gas in 2017 vs 2024 and that’s *all* they need to know! Forget that he inherited the Obama recovery and that Biden had to clean up his economic mess! That’s too complicated for most of the MAGA cult, and for those that actually *do* understand the broader economic principles, they’re generally wealthier and are just selfishly looking for tax cuts from Trump.
It’s just *so* sad that 46% of Americans voters know SO little about economic principles and don’t appear to have any motivation to educate themselves.
Yes, this!! ALL.OF.THIS!!! 👏🏿
I grew up in Staten Island in a working class area. My friends from back then know exactly what Trump is, but will vote for him anyway. This is, I think, a good representation of the Trump voter.
What they dislike most about the Democratic Party is the identity politics. I think that if the democrats could tack more center they could win handily.
The fact that a felon and fraud like Trump could be in an effective tie should tell the dems that they’re doing something wrong.
I haven't been this nervous about a presidential election since 2020 and before that, you have to go all the way back to 2016 to see me this unnerved.
It's going to be a stressful 50 days.............
Very interesting conversation. I think Damon's breakdown of the Trump supporters is spot on.
There is nothing about the 2024 election that is "politics as usual". A Trump administration Project 2025 would mean an end to American democracy. THIS IS NOT HYPERBOLE.
Project 2025 needs more public exposure!
Here’s something for the underinformed: "The People’s Guide to Project 2025" 👇
https://democracyforward.org/the-peoples-guide-to-project-2025/
This "Reject Project 2025" t-shirt is great, too 👇
https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/reject25
A vote for Harris and all Democrats on the ticket is a vote to save this country and our freedoms. Period.
What an excellent point. And let me build on it. The overriding theme of Project 2025 is the creation of an Imperial Presidency to an unprecedented extent. Trump and the drafters of Project 2025 need to answer whether they'd advocate the same type of super-charged POTUS if a D is elected.
"I disagree — judging from conversations I have had with people backing Trump who are neither dumb nor racist."
Yes, but they're willing to tolerate his dumbness and racism for their own benefit, which makes them just as bad as the overt dumb and racist supporters.
I didn't quit my job when my employer eliminated all DEI initiatives. I sometimes eat at Chik-Fil-A even though they donate money to anti-LGBTQ+ causes. Am I not allowed to tolerate those for my own benefit?
Of course you're "allowed to" make these choices, but let's not pretend they don't reflect back on you.
You may not quit your job over the DEI issue, but some people would. For them it may be a bridge too far. For you, you may just shrug and keep drawing a paycheck. Or maybe you're pissed, but can't afford to quit, so you advocate for equity in your workplace in other ways. Either way, the choice says something about you. Moreover, plenty of people choose not to take jobs that they can't square with their principals. I don't work at Exxon-Mobil and never would, for example.
As for Chic-fil-A, this is more inline with my comment about Trump voters. You're making a choice to support a company run by an avowed bigot just because you like their chicken a little bit more than at another restaurant? That's Trump-voter thinking all the way, and it definitely says something about you and the choices you're willing to make.
I'm all in for Chris's headphones although I wonder why he shows such a bias towards his coffee cup. :)
A year ago, Nate Cohn at the NYT had a breakdown of six types of Republicans:
The Moderate Establishment (14%). Highly educated, affluent, socially moderate or even liberal and often outright Never Trump.
The Traditional Conservatives (26%). Old-fashioned economic and social conservatives who oppose abortion and prefer corporate tax cuts to new tariffs. They don’t love Mr. Trump, but they do support him.
The Right Wing (26%). They watch Fox News and Newsmax. They’re “very conservative.” They’re disproportionately evangelical. They believe America is on the brink of catastrophe. And they love Mr. Trump more than any other group.
The Blue Collar Populists (12%). They’re mostly Northern, socially moderate, economic populists who hold deeply conservative views on race and immigration. Not only do they back Mr. Trump, but he himself probably counted as one a decade ago.
The Libertarian Conservatives (14%). These disproportionately Western and Midwestern conservatives value small government. They’re relatively socially moderate and isolationist, and they’re on the lower end of Trump support compared with other groups.
The Newcomers (8%). They don’t look like Republicans. They’re young, diverse and moderate. But these disaffected voters like Democrats and the “woke” left even less.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/17/upshot/six-kinds-of-republican-voters.html
Great piece. I think there is a portion of Republicans who are already consistently voting for democrats in congressional special elections resulting in over-performing results. Potentially losing them was the reason Biden stepped aside IMO. Republican women are unlikely to admit in front of their husbands that they are voting for Harris this time to support their right to choose. So I think this is being underestimated by the polling this time. This issue and Harris is driving democratic enthusiasm to Obama levels is significant for Democrats.
As for polling accuracy. It’s never going to be accurate when less than 2000 Americans are interviewed. Measuring momentum and enthusiasm are likely better indicators. If Harris’ dips between now and Election Day, as Hillary’s did, that would be a problem.
I enjoyed reading this piece this though Chris.
Chris Cillizza,
You are amazing!
You can have a conversation with someone and somehow know that they are not racist!
I have known some people for years, and had many conversations with them, and I never knew that they were indeed racist, until they let slip one day a racist comment or did something obviously racist.
How do you do it? Please share your secret!
The cold hard math is that Trump has 47-48% of the voting electorate locked, meaning Harris needs to reel in all the rest to win. Nate Silver estimates that nationally a 2-3% Harris win equates to a toss up, a 3-4% Harris win equates to 80-20% win probability, 4-5% Harris win equates to 95% probability.
Currently, Harris is on the bubble, assuming that the polling is accurate in reflecting her turnout.
Silver suffers from "trump bias syndrome ".
People are underestimating the likely increase in Democratic turnout. Not a lot of young people are captured in polls.
In the last section Chris, where you ask "And who stops him?", the discussion left out one key variable - namely Jack Smith. If Trump loses in Nov., the Jan 6. prosecution proceeds. Yes, it will likely take over a year to complete, and yes it will give Trump yet another forum to publicly proclaim (loudly) he did not lose and he is a political victim, but it does pose significant legal peril. I'm willing to bet that the federal legal process under the direction of Judge Chutkan is an adversary Trump cannot beat.
I stopped reading after the second time he called Harris a generic Democratic candidate. A black/Asian woman vice president is not a generic Democrat. Is this pundit a real pundit or a generic pundit.
Give me a break.
The real issue is that the generic fascist is touching a real nerve with his Hitler playbook and no one is spelling out what our lives will be like if he wins. The rounding up of millions and the retribution against his opponents in and out of office and the shutting down of the media he doesn’t like is going to put all our lives in danger. Even MAGA people will purge each other.
Talk about how dangerous it will be to live under this kind of person. The Germans and the Soviets didn’t have safe lives even if they weren’t the targeted ones. No one will be safe. And here so many people have guns.
Can you please do a follow-up exchange with Linker on independent voters?
Great read Chris! The last exchange has always stuck with me. Acquiescing that everything Trump says is true, why would anyone want someone in charge that evidently is so easily taken advantage of?....
Great conversation and the best summary I’ve read on Trump voters. Sad to see so many people in his camp.
Here is a slightly different breakdown of Trump voters, if you’re interested:
https://open.substack.com/pub/mmansour/p/how-trump-came-to-be?r=tcxup&utm_medium=ios