George Will — my one-time boss! — wrote a column today aimed at propping up the presidential candidacy of Nikki Haley.
Headlined “Haley is the last candle fending off darkness. And she’s fired up,” the piece details her popularity with the state’s voters and her accomplishments as governor (she made voting in the state legislature more transparent!).
Will boils down his take on Haley’s strategy into a single paragraph:
Calling herself a “happy warrior,” looking inexplicably rested and exuding an exuberant pugnacity, she is wagering that Trump cannot keep his composure for four weeks. And that a majority of voters, already embarrassed and exhausted by Trump, will be more so if he has a testosterone spill when she relentlessly needles him about being afraid to debate someone with two X chromosomes.
Putting aside Haley’s “exuberant pugnacity,” Will’s argument amounts to this: She is trying to piss Trump off enough that he loses his cool and says something offensive — which loses him support among Republicans (and especially women).
Uh, what?
Did Will miss the last, say, 8 years somehow?
A few things to consider here.
First, there is ZERO evidence in the contests so far that a majority of voters are “already embarrassed and exhausted by Trump.” Trump won Republican voters in Iowa by 30 points over Ron DeSantis. (Haley won just 18% of GOPers.) In New Hampshire, Trump beat Haley among Republicans 74% to 25%.
It’s just not close. To the extent Haley has demonstrated she has a constituency, it’s among unaffiliated voters and Democrats. Who, last time I checked, don’t decide the identity of the Republican nominee.
And it’s not just Iowa and New Hampshire. Poll after poll — conducted over the last year — have shown that the Republican base a) loves Trump b) doesn’t want other candidates to attack Trump and c) believes Trump is the most electable Republican in a general election.
(Sidebar: That last belief is demonstrably false; Haley runs significantly stronger than Trump.)
Second, and this is the really appalling thing about Will’s take on Haley, is that it is literally impossible for me to believe that Trump could say something in the next month — the South Carolina primary is February 24 — that would SO offend Republicans in the state (especially women) that they would turn against him.
Like, ask yourself what that might sound like? I mean, this is a man who has said immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the country. A man who calls his political enemies “vermin.” A man who repeatedly defamed an octogenarian woman he was found liable for sexually assaulting. A man who faced almost two dozen sexual assault allegations while he was running for president in 2016. A man who said he would be. “dictator” (for only one day!) if he is reelected to the White House. A man who said that the Constitution might need to be terminated in order for him to re-run the 2020 election. A man who referred to “shithole” countries.
I could go on. And on. And on.
But, you get the idea. If you are STILL with Donald Trump, you know what you signed up for — and what you are getting. In fact, the offensive comments, the derogatory nicknames, the bullying, the meanness — you don’t like Trump in spite of those things, you like him because of those things.
Know who understands that? Really well? Donald Trump.
“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” he said at a campaign rally in Iowa in 2016.
At the time, he was roundly mocked for the comment. It was seen as the wild brag of an egomaniac.
Turns out, he was (and is) exactly right.
What Will is doing then is engaging in the sort of wish-casting that got Republicans in this mess in the first place.
Remember how the other candidates tried to ignore Trump in the early days of the 2016 race under the theory that he would just, somehow, go away?
And how Hillary Clinton’s entire message in that general election was, essentially, “you’re not going to vote for this guy, are you?”
And how, after his false election claims and the January 6 insurrection, establishment Republicans assumed Trump had blown himself up and would disappear from relevance?
Yeah, how did that work out?
Simply put: The idea that Donald Trump will say something — in the next month! — that will disqualify him in the eyes of Republican voters is utterly laughable. It is the last dying breath of establishment Republicans hoping against hope that their party isn’t, really, going to nominate this guy again.
Let me break some news to these folks: The GOP absolutely is going to do just that. No matter what Trump says or does this month. Or next month. Or the month after that.
Agree with you there. I've been reading Will for years even if I find myself disagreeing with much of what he says as he writes well and presents an argument rather than a rant, but he really seems at sea when it comes to the MAGA-ized Republican Party. He's not alone in this, of course!
I think the only thing Trump could do at this point that would eat away at his base of support is to say what (I believe) he actually thinks about them. This would involve some level of honesty... I know, I know. But, what if he said something like: "My fans are complete morons. And a bunch of racists. My ability to stoke their fears about "others" and bully people relentlessly makes them love me. Then they give me money they can't afford, hoping I'll be President again so I can do absolutely nothing that makes their lives any better." He would have to repeat it a few times so he couldn't use the "just joking" excuse. As for Hailey, her best bet is that poking him results in a heart attack. Just sayin'.