Gaming out the possibilities.
I’m looking forward to seeing how many Congressional Republicans want to lose votes with independents next November because they’ve decided to make excuses for anything and everything Trump has done. Maybe they can try out that Mike Pence logic of being firmly for the rule of law except for when Trump is the one breaking the law.
I’m trusting Jack Smith to have a very sordid story to tell about this case. Ultra MAGA Republican Elise Stefanik is my rep and I’m pretty sure she’d still win in a general. She has a Normal Republican opponent, tho. I hope that’s something happening in other districts. I’d love to see some of these extremists losing to Normies.
Stefanik managed to invoke George Soros after the Bragg indictment. We’ll see what defense she and the others can come up with for indictments to come.
I have been a subscriber to the theory that nothing will damage Trump with his base, but I am not so sure his base is still as strong and as deep as it used to be. As the serious indictments pile up, and there may also be a j6 indictment from the federal government and another from Georgia, I think it is going to wear on people. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump implode. He's an old man in very serious trouble, distracted and he will be bleeding money. He looks invulnerable until suddenly he isn't.
Soon enough the Defendant-In-Chief will learn that there is nothing "fake" about the federal investigation into his hoarding classified documents when he has to show up at an arraignment.
The (in)famous Trump quote about shooting someone on 5th Avenue and not losing a single vote was truer than probably even he thought that it was. He will get indicted again, and probably more than once (the documents case, and in Georgia). Yet, I have zero doubt--none whatsoever--that this will shore up his support among Republicans. He will cruise to the nomination. Yes, I understand that many "independents" don't like him, but that's where the voter suppression laws come into play. He just needs to win enough of them to flip a few states, and he'll become our Il Duce.
Do you think it is possible to conduct an anonymous secret poll of all Republican Governors, Senators and Congressmen and ask them to rank their top 2 candidates?
Who has the gravitas and trust to even carry out such a poll and how can they be identified and encouraged to do so?
Is there a way to ensure would it be secure without leaks of individual details? Could they (whoever it is) use something like Incogneato or some other anonymous feedback mechanism?
Would these elected officials be inclined to participate if they could be assured of anonymity?
It is very possible that the majority of these elected officials will not choose Trump through this mechanism.
That would not eliminate the 35% diehard Trump supporters but it could provide more concrete data that the Establishment is not pro-Trump.
What do you think of the above?
Chris, at what point does the GOP leadership dump Trump? Hoping once leadership denounces Trump, it will trickle down to others. They know he’s a loser and has one indictment, another one likely and perhaps more. Nixon lost leadership and that is what sunk him and Nixon resigned. I agree that Trump will most likely get the nomination, his hard core base will never leave him. I also agree that the independents will most likely not vote for him, or enough anyway. With that being said, I thought the same in 2016 and we know how that turned out. It’s hard for me to imagine enough people voting for him after January 6th. If everything else he did, didn’t make a dent in his support, surely January 6th would. Nope. It’s really frightening to think how much worse this can all get, either win or lose. This country may not know what may occur, votes matter.
Trump needs to not be President ever again.
The especially hilarious irony, to me, is that the federal statute providing that mishandling of classified materials disqualifies you from federal office was signed into law by... Donald Trump. i
It was part of the post-2016 theater amidst all the “lock her up” chants to reinforce the message that Hillary should’ve not been eligible to serve as President.
Now we come to find out that the word that was most important to them in that chant was “her.”
I think you said it best in these words:
"The cumulative weight of the allegations against Trump do, at some point, become too much for some number of Republican voters to tolerate. They decide to jump ship and go looking..."
In essence, how much legal weight can he carry before he topples over? Everyone has a breaking point...Trump is getting closer to his.