What if everyone dropped out of the 2024 race but Nikki Haley and Donald Trump?
Considering an (unlikely) scenario.
Conservative columnist George F. Will proposes something quasi-radical in a piece out today: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott should drop out of the presidential race and immediately endorse former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
By catalyzing a coalescence around Haley, Scott could transform the nation’s political mood. As long as the Republican race pits Donald Trump against a cluster of lagging pursuers, the nominating electorate cannot ponder a binary choice. When, however, it is Trump against one experienced, polished, steely and unintimidated adversary, voters can internalize this exhilarating reality: There is a choice suitable for a great nation.
Will envisions Haley not just beating Trump for the nomination but being such an overwhelming favorite in the general election that President Joe Biden drops his own 2024 bid. Which, well, probably not.
But, Will is far from the only Republican urging shrinkage in the race — and a coalescing behind Haley.
“I urge donors, voters, and other candidates to unite around an alternative candidate to Trump,” said former Texas Rep. Will Hurd in dropping out of the 2024 race earlier this week. He endorsed Haley and said she could “unite us” and “navigate the complex challenges we face, particularly when it comes to our national security.”
And Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, at a gathering of his major donors from campaigns past, also emphasized the need to unite behind a single candidate to take down Trump.
“I’d like it to coalesce earlier; I just think it has to happen,” Romney said. “I want to put responsibility on your shoulders as the people who are financing campaigns to have some say as to when it’s time for the person you support to say, ‘Okay, I’m getting behind someone else.’”
Romney, unlike Hurd and Will, did not suggest which candidate should be the preferred Trump alternative.
While I am skeptical that this sort of uniting around a single candidate — Haley or anyone else — will actually happen (politicians are egotistical creatures) it’s an interesting thought experiment to consider if it did.
So, let’s do that. Let’s say that, today, everyone in the race but Haley and Trump dropped out. And everyone — Scott, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy (unlikely!) endorsed Haley as they left the contest.
To figure out how that would change the race, it’s worth looking at where polling stands in the first two states that will cast votes.
Here’s Iowa, according to Real Clear Politics polling average:
Trump has 49% of the vote. Haley has 9%. If you give Haley ALL the other votes, she totals 45% — which isn’t bad but is still behind Trump.
Now, New Hampshire, again according to RCP:
Trump is at 45%. Haley is at 14%. Give her ALL the other votes and she gets to almost 50% (49.7%).
Which, at first glance, might look encouraging for the anti-Trump faction within the party.
The fundamental problem here, however, is the assumption that Haley would get ALL of the votes of the contenders who dropped out. Even if they all did endorse her, it’s hard to see that happening.
Poll after poll suggests Trump is the preferred 2nd choice for lots and lots of Republicans. Which means plenty of say, Ramaswamy supporters, would flock to Trump if Vivek dropped out — regardless of who he endorsed. (And, to be clear, Ramaswamy is going to endorse Trump if and when he leaves the race.)
Which is a major hole in Will’s theory. As I have written before, there is no real evidence that Republican voters are a) dissatisfied with the idea of Trump as their nominee or b) clamoring for an alternative to the former president.
To the contrary, they are not only determined to vote for Trump but also believe whole-heartedly that he is their best chance to beat Biden next November.
Will’s argument then is predicated on a hope that the Republican party, if given the option, will choose against Trump. That the lesson to be learned from the 2016 primary wasn’t that Trump was shaping a new Republican party in front of our eyes but rather that the old, establishment GOP just didn’t line up behind a Trump alternative quickly enough.
I think that’s wrong. What 2016 signaled was, in fact, a deep divide between the grassroots of the Republican party and its elected officials. The party base was far more populist than its leaders understood. Trump’s entire candidacy was predicated on the idea that Republican leaders had failed to represent the needs and interests of the people who elected them.
Seven years on, the reality is that Trump has led a total transformation of the Republican party. The party is now no longer organized around principles but rather functions as a cult of personality built around the whims of Trump.
And people like it! There’s a reason that Trump has leads of upwards of 30 points in every early voting state and a 40 point lead nationally over a crowded field of would-be challengers.
Will (and Romney and Hurd) are operating in a fantasy world. The Republican party — repeatedly over the past 7 years — has been given the opportunity to walk away from Trump. And it’s never happened.
Thinning the field down to just Haley vs Trump is the latest gambit from an establishment that (still) doesn’t realize the war for control of the party is over. They lost.
Considering how much sexist and racist hatred there is for Kamala Harris, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Nikki Haley could win the Republican nomination.
Great job of analyzing that proposed theory.
They’re not going to find a Wayback Machine so they can go to post-election 2020 and change their whole party’s acquiescence to the stolen election lie. So, the only hope I see is for the various trials of Defendant Trump to break through to the MAGA Cultists and cause them to opt for another candidate. And it would be helpful if there was only one.
And I realize this is not likely. But, the NY trial going on now is pointing out how fraudulent the Apprentice Trump always was. I see in WaPo today that Smith is going to present a motive for the theft of the documents. Of course, the Smith trials are probably going to come too late, in any case.
I suppose George Will has to write something to get paid.