Considering how much sexist and racist hatred there is for Kamala Harris, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Nikki Haley could win the Republican nomination.
They’re not going to find a Wayback Machine so they can go to post-election 2020 and change their whole party’s acquiescence to the stolen election lie. So, the only hope I see is for the various trials of Defendant Trump to break through to the MAGA Cultists and cause them to opt for another candidate. And it would be helpful if there was only one.
And I realize this is not likely. But, the NY trial going on now is pointing out how fraudulent the Apprentice Trump always was. I see in WaPo today that Smith is going to present a motive for the theft of the documents. Of course, the Smith trials are probably going to come too late, in any case.
I suppose George Will has to write something to get paid.
Chris, the analysis is interesting and informative. However, I still say it is Trumps nomination to lose. Nobody will be able to conquer the lead Trump has. I am praying that these trials will pop the balloon and deflate Trump. Sadly, I am skeptical about that. The GOP had many an opportunity, going back to 2015 to unload him.
But if thinning down helps further embattle Trump, all the better. He might need to campaign more while also sitting in a courtroom every day. Instead of walking to a rubber-stamped nomination, the deplorables who support him get further exposure, driving the crucial swing voters toward Democrats. It could also stir an uprising at the Republican convention next year. Who knows?
And by the way , the majority of Republicans in the House also know that Trump is a threat to our Democracy and an agent of chaos. Good for them! How I do I know that ? The House Republicans overwhelmingly refused to even consider him as an interim Speaker and also declined to vote for his candidate (Jim Jordan) as the Speaker. They seem to have headed Liz Cheney's and Cassidy Hutchinson's warnings about Jim Jordan and hopefully about Trump as well
Thanks Chris, it’s quite evident at this time that Trump will be the nominee. Perhaps you could find out what a three way race would look like with RFK Jr., since Biden, Trump and Kennedy seem to be the likely outcome for the general.
Does Kennedy hurt Biden or Trump more? Could it mean no one wins the electoral college, and then the decision is left to the house?
This would be really good information if you could provide it. Thanks in advance....:)
Thanks, Chris, for this interesting article. I definitely agree with you that, as hard as it is to believe (and even harder to watch), the old GOP has lost the battle for the party as you said. But, as you know, there is no such thing as a final victory. Is there a pathway for the GOP away from Trumpism in the future? I have never supported the GOP but I would much rather have them back as the party you could disagree with but not fear that they were going to end democracy if they won enough elections.
The problem has been that (somewhat counterintuitively) having so many GOP candidates has made it more of a “you can’t beat someone with no one” situation.
The ugly reality is that the GOP base isn't a function of Trump, but Trump is a function of the pre-existing GOP base. Remove Trump from the equation and someone very similar would rise in his place. The problem for the GOP is that its distrust of government didn't begin in 2015 but in the 1980s, encapsulated with Reagan's "the nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help" quote.
It is a little late, after 40 years of right wing commentariat tearing down all governing institutions, to expect some kind of paradigm shift in the institutional rage of GOP base.
The GOP establishment ( Elected officials and Donors) are a smart bunch of people. They obviously don't want to keep elections as has been the case since Donald Trump hijacked their party. They are smart enough to know that more often than not, past is usually a proloq. GOP has been losing National elections since 2018.( Lost in 2018, 2020 and 2022.) They see the hand writing on the wall that with the Fraudster, con artist, twice impeached and criminally indicted with 91 felonies Trump as their flag bearer against an 80 year old( as you always like to remind us) Joe Biden, they will lose to Biden. This is why they are desperate to put their Money where their Mouth is. My advice to them though is to spare their resources for now because the GOP voters who believe falsely that the 2020 election was rigged (but not the 2016 because their cult leaders won fair and square just like Biden won fair and square in 2020 and will win again in 2024) will nominate him again in 2024. The GOP Donors who genuinely love this country can team up with other prominent Republicans who righty believe that Trump is a genuine threat to Democracy and form a Pack to seriously campaign against Trump next year. I know there a few of such superpacks in their embryonic stages as we we speak
Chris - the fallacy of the Will's argument is it is based upon the assumption the non-Trump candidates are trying to beat Trump, and therefore, if they were to consider dropping out, they would want to endorse anyone but Trump. However, as you have pointed out, the other candidates, with the exception of Christie, and maybe Hutchinson, have barely attacked Trump. Haley and Pence, at best, have tried landing weak jabs, however, have not yet truly landed a punch. I also believe Ramaswamy would most likely endorse Trump if he dropped out. So, if these candidates for President will not attack the leading candidate, why would they drop out to allow someone else a better chance to challenge the leading candidate they refuse to attack? Further, if they are not going to attack Trump, they might argue they are better to stay in the race to keep someone else from truly challenging Trump.
In a normal world, Will's premise might make sense. He forgets any world which still supports the liar in chief, who is four times indicted, who is a convicted fraudster, and who is a convicted sexual assaulter and convicted defamer, could still be the leading candidate for the republican nomination for President (did I forget anything) cannot be normal...
Republicans and the con-servatives" (read Heather Cox Richardson's new book - like Stuart Stevens in his books, she proves that word was always a con) need to pull their heads out their asses and realize that they're along for the ride with their monster, like it or not. The ones who want someone to vote for against Trump are going to have to wrap their heads around the fact that that candidate is Joe Biden.
Considering how much sexist and racist hatred there is for Kamala Harris, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Nikki Haley could win the Republican nomination.
Likewise Scott. Or Hurd.
Great job of analyzing that proposed theory.
They’re not going to find a Wayback Machine so they can go to post-election 2020 and change their whole party’s acquiescence to the stolen election lie. So, the only hope I see is for the various trials of Defendant Trump to break through to the MAGA Cultists and cause them to opt for another candidate. And it would be helpful if there was only one.
And I realize this is not likely. But, the NY trial going on now is pointing out how fraudulent the Apprentice Trump always was. I see in WaPo today that Smith is going to present a motive for the theft of the documents. Of course, the Smith trials are probably going to come too late, in any case.
I suppose George Will has to write something to get paid.
Chris,
You nailed it about ego...all the candidates are in it because of their outsized fantasy of running the country instead of "helping" the country.
Chris, the analysis is interesting and informative. However, I still say it is Trumps nomination to lose. Nobody will be able to conquer the lead Trump has. I am praying that these trials will pop the balloon and deflate Trump. Sadly, I am skeptical about that. The GOP had many an opportunity, going back to 2015 to unload him.
Elaine it absolutely is!
But if thinning down helps further embattle Trump, all the better. He might need to campaign more while also sitting in a courtroom every day. Instead of walking to a rubber-stamped nomination, the deplorables who support him get further exposure, driving the crucial swing voters toward Democrats. It could also stir an uprising at the Republican convention next year. Who knows?
I agree. It ain't over till its over, as they say.
This is, actually, the best strategy.
It may be the best strategy the non Trump forces have. But I still don't think it's a good (or likely) strategy.
If the other option is surrender, it's the best strategy. Go down swinging.
And by the way , the majority of Republicans in the House also know that Trump is a threat to our Democracy and an agent of chaos. Good for them! How I do I know that ? The House Republicans overwhelmingly refused to even consider him as an interim Speaker and also declined to vote for his candidate (Jim Jordan) as the Speaker. They seem to have headed Liz Cheney's and Cassidy Hutchinson's warnings about Jim Jordan and hopefully about Trump as well
Thanks Chris, it’s quite evident at this time that Trump will be the nominee. Perhaps you could find out what a three way race would look like with RFK Jr., since Biden, Trump and Kennedy seem to be the likely outcome for the general.
Does Kennedy hurt Biden or Trump more? Could it mean no one wins the electoral college, and then the decision is left to the house?
This would be really good information if you could provide it. Thanks in advance....:)
Kennedy or no Kennedy. Biden will win in 2025 inspire of the flawed Electoral College
We can only pray...:)
Thanks, Chris, for this interesting article. I definitely agree with you that, as hard as it is to believe (and even harder to watch), the old GOP has lost the battle for the party as you said. But, as you know, there is no such thing as a final victory. Is there a pathway for the GOP away from Trumpism in the future? I have never supported the GOP but I would much rather have them back as the party you could disagree with but not fear that they were going to end democracy if they won enough elections.
The problem has been that (somewhat counterintuitively) having so many GOP candidates has made it more of a “you can’t beat someone with no one” situation.
The ugly reality is that the GOP base isn't a function of Trump, but Trump is a function of the pre-existing GOP base. Remove Trump from the equation and someone very similar would rise in his place. The problem for the GOP is that its distrust of government didn't begin in 2015 but in the 1980s, encapsulated with Reagan's "the nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help" quote.
It is a little late, after 40 years of right wing commentariat tearing down all governing institutions, to expect some kind of paradigm shift in the institutional rage of GOP base.
The GOP establishment ( Elected officials and Donors) are a smart bunch of people. They obviously don't want to keep elections as has been the case since Donald Trump hijacked their party. They are smart enough to know that more often than not, past is usually a proloq. GOP has been losing National elections since 2018.( Lost in 2018, 2020 and 2022.) They see the hand writing on the wall that with the Fraudster, con artist, twice impeached and criminally indicted with 91 felonies Trump as their flag bearer against an 80 year old( as you always like to remind us) Joe Biden, they will lose to Biden. This is why they are desperate to put their Money where their Mouth is. My advice to them though is to spare their resources for now because the GOP voters who believe falsely that the 2020 election was rigged (but not the 2016 because their cult leaders won fair and square just like Biden won fair and square in 2020 and will win again in 2024) will nominate him again in 2024. The GOP Donors who genuinely love this country can team up with other prominent Republicans who righty believe that Trump is a genuine threat to Democracy and form a Pack to seriously campaign against Trump next year. I know there a few of such superpacks in their embryonic stages as we we speak
"The GOP Donors who genuinely love this country can" play bridge if they can find a fourth.
Hmmm, this could be a fun party game.
"The GOP Donors who genuinely love this country can..."
Chris - the fallacy of the Will's argument is it is based upon the assumption the non-Trump candidates are trying to beat Trump, and therefore, if they were to consider dropping out, they would want to endorse anyone but Trump. However, as you have pointed out, the other candidates, with the exception of Christie, and maybe Hutchinson, have barely attacked Trump. Haley and Pence, at best, have tried landing weak jabs, however, have not yet truly landed a punch. I also believe Ramaswamy would most likely endorse Trump if he dropped out. So, if these candidates for President will not attack the leading candidate, why would they drop out to allow someone else a better chance to challenge the leading candidate they refuse to attack? Further, if they are not going to attack Trump, they might argue they are better to stay in the race to keep someone else from truly challenging Trump.
In a normal world, Will's premise might make sense. He forgets any world which still supports the liar in chief, who is four times indicted, who is a convicted fraudster, and who is a convicted sexual assaulter and convicted defamer, could still be the leading candidate for the republican nomination for President (did I forget anything) cannot be normal...
Republicans and the con-servatives" (read Heather Cox Richardson's new book - like Stuart Stevens in his books, she proves that word was always a con) need to pull their heads out their asses and realize that they're along for the ride with their monster, like it or not. The ones who want someone to vote for against Trump are going to have to wrap their heads around the fact that that candidate is Joe Biden.