What if the State of the Union changed nothing?

Inside Democrats' worst fear

The press coverage for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address was positively fawning — emphasizing how the president had shown energy and vigor, putting to rest (or at least quieting) questions about whether he was up to the job.

Hell, I wrote that Biden “absolutely nailed it”!

Democrats — online and offline — predicted that the SOTU speech would be a pivot point in the campaign, when Biden addressed the age questions head-on and started a comeback in his general election race against Donald Trump.

Except, well, that comeback hasn’t really materialized in post-SOTU polling.

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Here’s a look at the polls that have been conducted entirely after Biden gave his speech:

Which isn’t conclusive, of course.

But there’s more out there too.

An ABC-Ipsos poll released over the weekend found that while 3 in 10 Americans said Biden had outperformed their expectations during the speech, his overall ratings on issues was largely unchanged from before the address.

Here’s how ABC summarized that result:

Despite the positive marks Biden earns from some groups on his performance, that has not yet translated into positive change on his approval ratings.

Out of the nine issues asked about in the survey, seven are in line with previous approval ratings last reported in October 2023. Biden’s approval rating has only changed on two issues: abortion (improved) and the war between Israel and Hamas (worsened).

At least three in five Americans continue to disapprove of Biden’s handling of immigration and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (68%), inflation (66%), the war between Israel and Hamas (65%), gun violence (62%), crime (61%), and the economy (60%).

It’s not just the ABC poll either. According to the 538 polling average, Biden’s job approval number dipped on Tuesday night to 37.4%, the lowest of his presidency.

And his approval ratings at this point in his presidency are historically bad.

So, there’s a few ways to see the post-SOTU polls. Let’s go from the worst case scenario for Democrats to the best case.

WORST CASE

If Biden’s SOTU speech — and the resultant positive press — doesn’t move his numbers, nothing will.

People have made up their minds about Biden — too old, hasn’t handled the country’s problems effectively — and they are not open to be persuaded.

Couple that with the fact that people seem to be memory-holing Trump’s worst moments as president and you have a very big and bad problem for Biden.

MIDDLE CASE

Biden’s speech wasn’t, really, about convincing independent voters or soft Republicans. It was entirely designed to reassure nervous Democrats that the bet they are placing on the 81-year-old Biden is a good one.

John Podhoretz, a conservative commentator, summed this up nicely:

There are some signs in the post-SOTU polling that suggest the speech did help rally Democrats. In the ABC-Ipsos poll, a majority of Democrats — 52% — said that Biden overperformed their expectations. Two thirds of Democrats polled by CNN after the speech said they felt “very” positively about the address.

The first step of any winning campaign is to consolidate your base. And, there were lots of signs before Biden’s speech that he had not done that — including findings that a majority of Democrats thought he was too old to run for another term and preferred a different nominee.

The goal of Biden’s speech was to assuage those concerns among his base — and convince them that he is going to be the candidate and they need to get behind him. The right way to read the post-SOTU polling then is to solely look at Biden’s numbers among Democrats. If they are more favorable than before the SOTU, the speech worked.

BEST CASE

The American public is NOT like the political media. They don’t follow this stuff super closely — and they don’t feel like they need to render a judgement on whether Biden is doing better or worse the second that the SOTU speech ends.

Expecting there to be an IMMEDIATE poll bump for Biden then is a ridiculous standard. The goal of the speech was to start to make the case to the public for why Biden deserves 2nd term, not close the deal. This was about establishing a beachhead — setting the stage for the argument to come about Biden and, yes, Trump.

The effects, therefore, will be far slower than the political press is looking for. Small movements in polls — whether for or against Biden — are meaningless.

Which of these scenarios is the right one? I wish I knew!

If I had to pick, I think I would go with the middle one — that the Biden speech was ultimately a success if it puts to rest talk among his own party that he needs to be replaced — or that he won’t make it until the general election.

That, to me, is the critical polling question to look at when deciding if Biden’s SOTU speech “worked” or not. Does the number of Democrats wanting a different nominee and/or worried about Biden being able to do the job of president go down? And stay down?

If it does, that’s success. If it doesn’t? Then Biden probably failed in his SOTU mission.