Chris, I thought that the SOTU was a great way to kick off the campaign for POTUS. I also think this election is less about lift and more about drag. I don't expect to see much soaring rhetoric or inspirational speaking, but I do think Trump has more anchors in the water...more drag, less speed, and ultimately a loss. He will face at least one criminal jury. I expect that to have an impact. As I read the other day, "I'd rather have 81 years behind me than 91 indictments in front of me." I think that is accurate.
I was pleased with the SOTU address, and actually felt very positive in my vote for Joe Biden. Age and wisdom...he is well liked by other heads of state, he is kind, his wife is an asset...he gets the job done. He is old. So what?
I will add that Biden stepping aside, and Harris assuming the mantle of the candidate (because dumping her would be far worse, you could kiss the African American bloc goodbye) would not make them happy. They aren't gonna get Whitmer or Shapiro. If it isn't Harris, it will then go to the only other candidate who has a national profile, that would be Gavin Newsom.
And if you think he beats Trump, you really need to share who your dope dealer is, because that is some good stuff they're smoking.
The wild orange dude did NOT win an outright majority in the 2016 election, and it was only a few thousand votes in a few states that landed Biden in the WH. If the majority vote against Trump, but he still wins the Electoral College, it will not be because those who prefer democracy or a republic deserve a dictator. It will be because we did not insist that Garland get a vote to SCOTUS, or insist that Barrett should not get a vote to SCOTUS, or insist that the filibuster be overturned, and we are not standing up against super-majorities that do believe in gerrymandering but not in voting rights. The Democrats must nominate and elect logical, patriotic candidates at all levels of government to fix all of what is wrong. The GOP won't fix anything at this time.
2020 was just a practice session for what Trumpists will do in 2024. There will be all kinds of crap perpetrated at the local level, there will be MAGA officials at the state level refusing to certify the vote, and if Democrats to not win a majority in the House, then Mike Johnson or his successor will do what Mike Pence would not. Will be wild.
I'm inclined towards a blend of mid and best case scenarios myself. It's still far too early in the race to engage most people and, unlike us, I really do believe that the large majority of people pay little to no attention to politics until very close to elections.
Yes, and that’s sad. About your last sentence. When democracy is on the line, every American should be paying attention well before Election Day. I can dream, can’t I?
I think it’s important to remember that Trump has been out there campaigning hard for months now, while Biden and Harris have not. And let’s not forget that Trump has had Fox News (and the rest of the media) out there giving him free assists in so many ways for so long now - if I had a nickel for every time someone on Fox described Biden as senile, diminished or otherwise incapable due to his age, I could buy a new house. I think Biden really just started campaigning. We have to see how he will proceed.
I’m a very concerned Democrat. I think people have completely forgotten how awful Trump was, and refuse to see how much worse he would be in a second term. I’m going to hope that things can change in the next 8 months and try very hard not to overreact to every single piece of news and every word that is uttered between now and November.
I too am very concerned. And I agree-I too think people have completely forgotten how awful trump was. He will only be more authoritarian in a second term.
Trump has a following that is rock solid in its support. Biden...not so much. With that in mind, any positive changes in polling for JB will likely be very small and slow to occur, if they happen at all. Dangerous times ahead.
I wonder what the weather is like on Earth II, where the majority of those who prove by their existence that the only thing "exceptional" about America is the exceptional moron stupidity of the average quasi-literate American? Trump is better on the economy, inflation, crime and gun violence? Trump wouldn't make the Gaza War WORSE by giving Nitwityahoo everything he wants??? No wonder I run across so many more incapable morons on the road than I used to.
Hilarious that you believe former Pres. Trump is a bigger Israel hawk than Pres. Biden. Pres. Biden literally went around Congress to ship them weapons.
I’m suggesting that supporting Israel in the way that Prss. Biden has for decades makes him a hawk. As for the attacks on 7 October they were absolutely horrific and Israel has every right to defend themselves, I will take some liberty in saying we agree there. As for the Israeli expansion, Pres. Biden also did nothing but offer hallow words. He put zero pressure of PM Netanyahu to halt those policies. If your argument is that former Pres. Trump was a hawk on Israel, then Pres. Biden has matched him almost step for step, with the exception of some hollow words.
I understand someone thinking Biden should do more to pressure Bibi. My own observation is that Bibi disregards that pressure and knows if Trump gets re-elected, he will have carte blanche. He also knows keeping the war going is his best chance to stay in power. To the extent you are arguing that Trump has a more balanced or benign view re the Palestinians, I find that argument contrary to his words and deeds. Thanks for the exchange
Study the whole record . Biden favors a two state solution and presses Bibi for a cease fire. Trump put Kushner and Friedman in charge of ME policy and they made deals that were designed to and did isolate the Palestinians. He now cavalierly says the war “needs to play out.”
Indeed we should study the whole record. As far back as 1986 then Sen. Biden was a staunch supporter of Israel. Saying that people needed to stop apologizing for Israel. He only started calling for a cease fire when he realized it was negatively affecting his re-election campaign.
Not sure what you think you proved in your last post. Yes, Biden has long supported Israel . You have a problem with that? And your spin re the admin’s position now is off base. Blinken has been lobbying Bibi for a cease fire for months. Meanwhile, you offered nothing in response to Trump’s history and current hawkish position
It is very worrisome that the media is making this one speech such a big story.
If one speech can make such a difference then some other speech or slip will blow the weather vane in another direction.
Perhaps the public is very anxious because of wars, nuclear weapons chatter, a couple of years of talk about recession, climate disasters, and Over blown stories about crime and invasion and the authoritarian rapist and do nothing congress.
There are many reasons to be worried.
IMO despite all this and how it makes people feel about the president, the alternative is much worse and it will be hard for thinking people to vote for TFG. The big concern is who will the not thinking people vote for.
The SOU is always a big story in an election year. And it was bigger than most this year b/c of general concerns re Biden's age and the impact of Hur's negative comments. The media didn't "make" it a big story. It was one. Joe did a great job. Between that and the smart ad campaign they started, there is good reason for hope. I did not expect, however, a quick turnaround in polling. We need time for Joe's campaign to sink in and we need some additional strong performances by Joe and/or surrogates
My point was that this big story can very quickly be replaced by the next story the media runs with. They made a very big deal of the Hur report for days. They made a big deal of the Katie Britt humiliation. But they move on. The last story before Election Day will be the clincher. The public has very shallow interest. It takes making it a horse race to keep them interested. .
I understand your view. I also have heard some "experts" state that opinions about incumbents harden in the Summer before an election. We'll see. It baffles me that any semi-reasonable and informed person could vote for Trump, a malignant narcissist, know-nothing, and criminal.
I read that Adlai Stevenson was told he will have the vote of every thinking person. He replied something like that wasn’t going to be enough to win. Or those weren’t the voters he was concerned about.
Even then the uneducated and not critical thinkers were a big group.
One reason that there is such effort to degrade education is that the poorly educated are the ones that will fall for authoritarians. Trump said it. He loves the uneducated.
I’m inclined to go think it’s somewhere between the Middle and Best Case scenarios. I wouldn’t have excepted a large impact this close to the SOTU address. But I do think the purpose as has been suggested was to kick start the actual campaign now that he has officially locked up the nomination.
OK Chris I get it. Jeez! We’re fucked as a country according to your love of polls. Dumb ass is going to win. You have jammed the poll crap down my throat so I’m chocking. Your last few posts are so depressing. Enjoy trump.
Hi Chris, I'm one of your paid readers and, as someone who reads, i.e., pays for, several such columns (can I use an old newspaper term?), yours is absolutely worth it. I hope many others dip ever so slightly into their pockets so it continues. To politics: It's probably right to place the SOTU in the middle ground. To use a baseball analogy, a home run in the 5th has tied the game but lots of good pitches and at least one run is needed to win. Biden needs to channel his inner Ohtani for the next 4 innings.
If you ever bothered to critically analyze the current polls, you might understand the skepticism with which we view them, but instead, you look to pick fights with members of this community.
Why not look at the crosstabs of the polls (the recent NYT/Siena poll was egregious) and see how they line up with the ways voters have actually voted in 2020, 2022, & 2023? You don’t have to be a genius to see the glaring errors but you *do* have to at least look. You can look to Jay Kuo (The Status Kuo) and Jonathan V. Last (The Bulwark) for very detailed and insightful commentary on this exact subject.
Chris is still very much part of the MSM and still reports as though he works for CNN, who has fallen prey to the “bothsidesism” they need to maintain their ratings, clickthroughs, and ad revenue. And quoting pollsters & their apologists doesn’t make them any less suspect. Chris has articles to write and polls give him fodder. I can’t blame him, but I take his opinions with a LARGE shaker of salt…
What a time to be alive! Having an alternative view of things is now viewed as “[looking] to pick fights with the members of the community”!
Honest question, what should Chris write about if not the polls? Further, if Pres. Biden was up on former Pres. Trump would you be so critical of the polls?
I’ve read enough of your comments to understand your “perspective” and have seen the slow but steady decline in the thoughts expressed in the Comment section to say that you are being (and I’m being charitable here…) “disingenuous” at the least.
I can’t speak for all of Chris’s followers, but I can say personally that I view most modern polling with a skeptical eye, as do most thoughtful people that don’t make their living by ad revenue or subscription dollars. While I might “feel” a bit better about the prospects for November if the polling showed Biden with a very slight lead instead of Trump, I would *still* look to the crosstabs to see if they matched what common sense, and prior elections, would show to be true. That’s called “critical”, and not “partisan”, thinking.
I’ve noticed in your feed that you’re absolutely not a partisan and you equally bash former Pres. Trump and President Biden. I can’t wait for you to start your fair and balanced Substack. I’ll be your first subscriber. Again, opposing viewpoints doesn’t make one “disingenuous” at least it didn’t used to.
Once again, let me say that pandering to “bothsidesism” does NO ONE any good when *both sides* are NOT EQUAL!
If you actually think that Biden’s actions and comments deserve a similar level of criticism as Donald J. Trump, then there’s no point to any further discussion between us: you would simply be deluded.
I have no interest in trying to engage MAGA Cult Members with Logic and Reason: they simply don’t listen or think critically. They remind me of a quote from Robert Heinlein, the famous sci-fi writer: “Never try to teach a pig to sing. You waste your time and you annoy the pig.”
Fair enough. To be honest, I’m not sure where I would fall on your political matrix. I don’t want former Pres. Trump to win, but think that Pres. Biden is a deeply flawed candidate. I deeply wish someone else would run, really anyone else at this point, but this is the binary choice we’re left with.
Chris, you like many in MSM were betting and expecting the other Dem candidates to get more votes in the primaries and did not happen.
So, against your prediction “the sky is falling” primary votes is an early indication Dems do not want another candidate. The MSM should start writing about the dangerous of indicted former President Trump.
The MSM still handling Indicted Trump with low expectation.
I don't recall Chris ever saying Biden would have problems in the primaries. Please cite an article where he said anything like that. To the contrary, when other pundits (eg, Klein and Kristol) were urging Biden to get out, Chris said that would never happen. Also, Chris and what you call the MSM regularly call out Trump's lies and outrages. But you can't expect them to be cheerleaders and write only what you'd like to read. The problem isn't the media. It's the fools among us who support a malignant narcissist and know nothing.
The MSM members agreed they have not done their job going back when the indicted President Trump posted the President Obama birth certificate which the MSM repeated it knowing was racist when the Apprentice had high rating.
No need to google. All of Chris’s posts are on his site. I’m just asking where he said Biden would face a serious primary challenge b/c I think he has from the beginning said Biden would be the nominee even when others were saying Biden would or should bow out. I don’t know what point you are trying to make re Trump’s noxious birherism, but many in the press rightly savaged him for it,
the immediate positive effect is on the dedicated Democrats who'll be the core of Biden's base and will work their tails off to make sure Biden wins and Trump loses, so one could argue that the SOTU will have a positive impact on polls, but not right away
Chris, I thought that the SOTU was a great way to kick off the campaign for POTUS. I also think this election is less about lift and more about drag. I don't expect to see much soaring rhetoric or inspirational speaking, but I do think Trump has more anchors in the water...more drag, less speed, and ultimately a loss. He will face at least one criminal jury. I expect that to have an impact. As I read the other day, "I'd rather have 81 years behind me than 91 indictments in front of me." I think that is accurate.
Well stated. I agree!
I was pleased with the SOTU address, and actually felt very positive in my vote for Joe Biden. Age and wisdom...he is well liked by other heads of state, he is kind, his wife is an asset...he gets the job done. He is old. So what?
If the State of the Union changed nothing, and if we elect Donald J Trump as President, then we will deserve him.
And it will mark the end of this country's journey as a democracy.
It will, indeed.
I came here to say just this.
I will add that Biden stepping aside, and Harris assuming the mantle of the candidate (because dumping her would be far worse, you could kiss the African American bloc goodbye) would not make them happy. They aren't gonna get Whitmer or Shapiro. If it isn't Harris, it will then go to the only other candidate who has a national profile, that would be Gavin Newsom.
And if you think he beats Trump, you really need to share who your dope dealer is, because that is some good stuff they're smoking.
I don’t think there is any scenario in which we “deserve” tRump.
Unless we re-elect him. That will be all our fault.
I seems to me that those of us who do everything in our power to *defeat *tRump do not deserve him. Those who vote for him do, indeed, deserve him.
The wild orange dude did NOT win an outright majority in the 2016 election, and it was only a few thousand votes in a few states that landed Biden in the WH. If the majority vote against Trump, but he still wins the Electoral College, it will not be because those who prefer democracy or a republic deserve a dictator. It will be because we did not insist that Garland get a vote to SCOTUS, or insist that Barrett should not get a vote to SCOTUS, or insist that the filibuster be overturned, and we are not standing up against super-majorities that do believe in gerrymandering but not in voting rights. The Democrats must nominate and elect logical, patriotic candidates at all levels of government to fix all of what is wrong. The GOP won't fix anything at this time.
2020 was just a practice session for what Trumpists will do in 2024. There will be all kinds of crap perpetrated at the local level, there will be MAGA officials at the state level refusing to certify the vote, and if Democrats to not win a majority in the House, then Mike Johnson or his successor will do what Mike Pence would not. Will be wild.
I'm inclined towards a blend of mid and best case scenarios myself. It's still far too early in the race to engage most people and, unlike us, I really do believe that the large majority of people pay little to no attention to politics until very close to elections.
And then, like the dolts they are, they wonder why their ass is always so sore from being kicked.
Yes, and that’s sad. About your last sentence. When democracy is on the line, every American should be paying attention well before Election Day. I can dream, can’t I?
I think it’s important to remember that Trump has been out there campaigning hard for months now, while Biden and Harris have not. And let’s not forget that Trump has had Fox News (and the rest of the media) out there giving him free assists in so many ways for so long now - if I had a nickel for every time someone on Fox described Biden as senile, diminished or otherwise incapable due to his age, I could buy a new house. I think Biden really just started campaigning. We have to see how he will proceed.
I’m a very concerned Democrat. I think people have completely forgotten how awful Trump was, and refuse to see how much worse he would be in a second term. I’m going to hope that things can change in the next 8 months and try very hard not to overreact to every single piece of news and every word that is uttered between now and November.
I too am very concerned. And I agree-I too think people have completely forgotten how awful trump was. He will only be more authoritarian in a second term.
Trump has a following that is rock solid in its support. Biden...not so much. With that in mind, any positive changes in polling for JB will likely be very small and slow to occur, if they happen at all. Dangerous times ahead.
I wonder what the weather is like on Earth II, where the majority of those who prove by their existence that the only thing "exceptional" about America is the exceptional moron stupidity of the average quasi-literate American? Trump is better on the economy, inflation, crime and gun violence? Trump wouldn't make the Gaza War WORSE by giving Nitwityahoo everything he wants??? No wonder I run across so many more incapable morons on the road than I used to.
Hilarious that you believe former Pres. Trump is a bigger Israel hawk than Pres. Biden. Pres. Biden literally went around Congress to ship them weapons.
And who recognized all the Israeli land grabs and moved the embassy to Jerusalem?
I’m suggesting that supporting Israel in the way that Prss. Biden has for decades makes him a hawk. As for the attacks on 7 October they were absolutely horrific and Israel has every right to defend themselves, I will take some liberty in saying we agree there. As for the Israeli expansion, Pres. Biden also did nothing but offer hallow words. He put zero pressure of PM Netanyahu to halt those policies. If your argument is that former Pres. Trump was a hawk on Israel, then Pres. Biden has matched him almost step for step, with the exception of some hollow words.
I understand someone thinking Biden should do more to pressure Bibi. My own observation is that Bibi disregards that pressure and knows if Trump gets re-elected, he will have carte blanche. He also knows keeping the war going is his best chance to stay in power. To the extent you are arguing that Trump has a more balanced or benign view re the Palestinians, I find that argument contrary to his words and deeds. Thanks for the exchange
Appreciate your thoughts as well! Truly.
Who has this quote? "I don't believe you have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist."
Study the whole record . Biden favors a two state solution and presses Bibi for a cease fire. Trump put Kushner and Friedman in charge of ME policy and they made deals that were designed to and did isolate the Palestinians. He now cavalierly says the war “needs to play out.”
Indeed we should study the whole record. As far back as 1986 then Sen. Biden was a staunch supporter of Israel. Saying that people needed to stop apologizing for Israel. He only started calling for a cease fire when he realized it was negatively affecting his re-election campaign.
Not sure what you think you proved in your last post. Yes, Biden has long supported Israel . You have a problem with that? And your spin re the admin’s position now is off base. Blinken has been lobbying Bibi for a cease fire for months. Meanwhile, you offered nothing in response to Trump’s history and current hawkish position
It is very worrisome that the media is making this one speech such a big story.
If one speech can make such a difference then some other speech or slip will blow the weather vane in another direction.
Perhaps the public is very anxious because of wars, nuclear weapons chatter, a couple of years of talk about recession, climate disasters, and Over blown stories about crime and invasion and the authoritarian rapist and do nothing congress.
There are many reasons to be worried.
IMO despite all this and how it makes people feel about the president, the alternative is much worse and it will be hard for thinking people to vote for TFG. The big concern is who will the not thinking people vote for.
The SOU is always a big story in an election year. And it was bigger than most this year b/c of general concerns re Biden's age and the impact of Hur's negative comments. The media didn't "make" it a big story. It was one. Joe did a great job. Between that and the smart ad campaign they started, there is good reason for hope. I did not expect, however, a quick turnaround in polling. We need time for Joe's campaign to sink in and we need some additional strong performances by Joe and/or surrogates
I agree.
My point was that this big story can very quickly be replaced by the next story the media runs with. They made a very big deal of the Hur report for days. They made a big deal of the Katie Britt humiliation. But they move on. The last story before Election Day will be the clincher. The public has very shallow interest. It takes making it a horse race to keep them interested. .
I understand your view. I also have heard some "experts" state that opinions about incumbents harden in the Summer before an election. We'll see. It baffles me that any semi-reasonable and informed person could vote for Trump, a malignant narcissist, know-nothing, and criminal.
I read that Adlai Stevenson was told he will have the vote of every thinking person. He replied something like that wasn’t going to be enough to win. Or those weren’t the voters he was concerned about.
Even then the uneducated and not critical thinkers were a big group.
One reason that there is such effort to degrade education is that the poorly educated are the ones that will fall for authoritarians. Trump said it. He loves the uneducated.
I’m inclined to go think it’s somewhere between the Middle and Best Case scenarios. I wouldn’t have excepted a large impact this close to the SOTU address. But I do think the purpose as has been suggested was to kick start the actual campaign now that he has officially locked up the nomination.
OK Chris I get it. Jeez! We’re fucked as a country according to your love of polls. Dumb ass is going to win. You have jammed the poll crap down my throat so I’m chocking. Your last few posts are so depressing. Enjoy trump.
Hi Chris, I'm one of your paid readers and, as someone who reads, i.e., pays for, several such columns (can I use an old newspaper term?), yours is absolutely worth it. I hope many others dip ever so slightly into their pockets so it continues. To politics: It's probably right to place the SOTU in the middle ground. To use a baseball analogy, a home run in the 5th has tied the game but lots of good pitches and at least one run is needed to win. Biden needs to channel his inner Ohtani for the next 4 innings.
If these polls had President Biden up almost everyone in this group would be touting them all the time. But now that they’re not no one believes them.
If you ever bothered to critically analyze the current polls, you might understand the skepticism with which we view them, but instead, you look to pick fights with members of this community.
Why not look at the crosstabs of the polls (the recent NYT/Siena poll was egregious) and see how they line up with the ways voters have actually voted in 2020, 2022, & 2023? You don’t have to be a genius to see the glaring errors but you *do* have to at least look. You can look to Jay Kuo (The Status Kuo) and Jonathan V. Last (The Bulwark) for very detailed and insightful commentary on this exact subject.
Chris is still very much part of the MSM and still reports as though he works for CNN, who has fallen prey to the “bothsidesism” they need to maintain their ratings, clickthroughs, and ad revenue. And quoting pollsters & their apologists doesn’t make them any less suspect. Chris has articles to write and polls give him fodder. I can’t blame him, but I take his opinions with a LARGE shaker of salt…
What a time to be alive! Having an alternative view of things is now viewed as “[looking] to pick fights with the members of the community”!
Honest question, what should Chris write about if not the polls? Further, if Pres. Biden was up on former Pres. Trump would you be so critical of the polls?
I’ve read enough of your comments to understand your “perspective” and have seen the slow but steady decline in the thoughts expressed in the Comment section to say that you are being (and I’m being charitable here…) “disingenuous” at the least.
I can’t speak for all of Chris’s followers, but I can say personally that I view most modern polling with a skeptical eye, as do most thoughtful people that don’t make their living by ad revenue or subscription dollars. While I might “feel” a bit better about the prospects for November if the polling showed Biden with a very slight lead instead of Trump, I would *still* look to the crosstabs to see if they matched what common sense, and prior elections, would show to be true. That’s called “critical”, and not “partisan”, thinking.
I’m a big believer in logic and verification.
I’ve noticed in your feed that you’re absolutely not a partisan and you equally bash former Pres. Trump and President Biden. I can’t wait for you to start your fair and balanced Substack. I’ll be your first subscriber. Again, opposing viewpoints doesn’t make one “disingenuous” at least it didn’t used to.
Once again, let me say that pandering to “bothsidesism” does NO ONE any good when *both sides* are NOT EQUAL!
If you actually think that Biden’s actions and comments deserve a similar level of criticism as Donald J. Trump, then there’s no point to any further discussion between us: you would simply be deluded.
I have no interest in trying to engage MAGA Cult Members with Logic and Reason: they simply don’t listen or think critically. They remind me of a quote from Robert Heinlein, the famous sci-fi writer: “Never try to teach a pig to sing. You waste your time and you annoy the pig.”
Fair enough. To be honest, I’m not sure where I would fall on your political matrix. I don’t want former Pres. Trump to win, but think that Pres. Biden is a deeply flawed candidate. I deeply wish someone else would run, really anyone else at this point, but this is the binary choice we’re left with.
Chris, you like many in MSM were betting and expecting the other Dem candidates to get more votes in the primaries and did not happen.
So, against your prediction “the sky is falling” primary votes is an early indication Dems do not want another candidate. The MSM should start writing about the dangerous of indicted former President Trump.
The MSM still handling Indicted Trump with low expectation.
I don't recall Chris ever saying Biden would have problems in the primaries. Please cite an article where he said anything like that. To the contrary, when other pundits (eg, Klein and Kristol) were urging Biden to get out, Chris said that would never happen. Also, Chris and what you call the MSM regularly call out Trump's lies and outrages. But you can't expect them to be cheerleaders and write only what you'd like to read. The problem isn't the media. It's the fools among us who support a malignant narcissist and know nothing.
I will no google it for you.
The MSM members agreed they have not done their job going back when the indicted President Trump posted the President Obama birth certificate which the MSM repeated it knowing was racist when the Apprentice had high rating.
No need to google. All of Chris’s posts are on his site. I’m just asking where he said Biden would face a serious primary challenge b/c I think he has from the beginning said Biden would be the nominee even when others were saying Biden would or should bow out. I don’t know what point you are trying to make re Trump’s noxious birherism, but many in the press rightly savaged him for it,
the immediate positive effect is on the dedicated Democrats who'll be the core of Biden's base and will work their tails off to make sure Biden wins and Trump loses, so one could argue that the SOTU will have a positive impact on polls, but not right away