What Nikki Haley proved (and where she goes from here)

She's out. Now what?

Nikki Haley is out of the 2024 presidential race, a day after she lost 14 of 15 states to Donald Trump on Super Tuesday.

She is not planning to endorse Trump (at least not yet) — and emphasized that the burden is on the former president to win over the voters who backed her in the primary.

Honestly, you can get that news from LOTS of places. What’s special about this newsletter is that I am always going to tell you a) why all of this matters and b) what to look for next.

Which is NOT something you can find just anywhere. And I hope is a major reason why you become a paid subscriber to this newsletter today. It’s just $5 a month or $50 for the year.

I am making this Haley analysis free for everyone today. But I will tell you that changes are coming — both in terms of the subscription price and how much of my content is behind the paywall. So, now is the time to jump on board!

I think a good way to look at the totality of Haley’s candidacy — and where she might head from here — is to start with what she proved in this race. To my mind, there are two main things — which make contrary points about her future.

First, Haley proved that she is a very able candidate. She was one of the first people in the Republican race. (She got into the race in February 2023.) She was not the best known of the non-Trump candidates. She was mired in the low single digits for a loooong time. People like Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott and even Vivek Ramaswamy were all favored over her at different points in the first nine months of the race.

But, Haley persevered — leaning on her natural charisma and her message discipline.

I have said from the start of the race that Haley is, aside from Trump, the most naturally gifted candidate in the Republican race. (Trump is, unfortunately, very good at his bullying form of populism and rabble-rousing.) Haley was a star in the debates. She was a natural on the campaign trail.

And then there was the message thing. She picked a message — it’s time for a generational change (aka it’s time for Republicans to stop nominating old white guys) — and stuck to it. You knew why she was running. It was easily understood. And she said it over and over and over again.

All of which is to Haley’s immense credit. Even if you have been in the spotlight as, say, a governor, the transition to a presidential race is a very difficult one. Most candidates can’t do it. (See: DeSantis, Ron). But Haley made the leap seemingly effortlessly, a testament to her abilities as a candidate.

Add that all up and you might think that Haley’s future is very, very bright.

Except that, as you’ll remember, I said Haley’s candidacy proved TWO things. And the second thing it proved is that there is no majority constituency (or even close to it) for someone with Haley’s profile in the modern-day GOP.

Take a look at the exit polls from two swing-y states that voted Tuesday: Virginia and North Carolina.

In Virginia, Haley won just 19% of Republican voters. One in five!

In North Carolina, it was even worse for Haley as she took just 14% of Republican voters.

Those aren’t outliers. In South Carolina — her home state! — Haley won just 3 in 10 Republican voters. In the New Hampshire primary, she won just 25% of the Republican vote.

Haley was just never able to convince a majority — or even close to a majority — of actual Republican voters that she should be their candidate.

And the reason for that is simple: Donald Trump owns the Republican party now. Yes, there is some portion of the GOP who DO NOT want him. But, it’s nowhere near decisive. The bulk of the GOP wanted Trump — even with all of his warts and weaknesses — and they got him.

Could you argue — if you are pro-Haley — that the party may be in thrall to Trump now but that will change if he loses to President Joe Biden in November? I mean, sure. And it’s not a totally implausible idea.

But, I would counter with this: Do you really believe that if Trump loses in 2024, he is going to a) admit it and b) simply go away?

No chance! Trump will insist if he loses that he actually won and that he was cheated out of it. He will work to maintain his hold on the GOP. And, honestly, I think it will probably work! The base will believe he won. They will see him as the wronged victim — and the next election as the chance to redeem him (or something).

But what if Trump dies or is incapacitated between now and the election, you ask. Again, possible! I simply don’t believe — whether Trump would be taken off the board before this election or sometime in 2025 or 2026 — that the party, being what it is, would turn to Haley.

The party — as evidenced by the primary results — is one of populism now. It’s base is white, lower middle class and male. These are not Haley’s people — and even with Trump out of the race I don’t think they suddenly would be.

Which leaves us here: Nikki Haley is a very gifted candidate without a political home or an obvious next step, politically speaking.

So, what will she do?

My educated guess is that she is going to lay low in 2024, hope Trump loses and then spend 2025-2026 on a sort of “I told you so” campaign — making the case that the GOP has to remake itself if it wants to win the White House back.

Such a strategy depends heavily on the idea that a second straight Trump loss at the presidential level would occasion a major re-examination of what the party is and what it should be — and that it would turn to Haley out of a sense of buyer’s remorse and a desire to return to first principles.

Again, I think that is unlikely — because a) Trump will never concede he lost (and the base will believe him) and b) I don’t think Trumpism dies with Trump. I think the GOP has been fundamentally altered by the billionaire businessman — and it’s not going to simply revert back to the Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan days as soon as he is gone.

So, what should Haley do? That’s a MUCH harder question to answer.

She has been clear that she isn’t interested in running as a third party candidate in this election. Which, I get — if you believe that the Republican party is going to come to its senses some time soon.

But, see, I don’t.

Which is why I think it does make some sense for Haley to run as an independent candidate in this election. The best argument for not doing so is that she doesn’t want to damage her future prospects in the GOP. But what if there ARE no future prospects for her in this version of the GOP? What if the best thing she can do to preserve her version of the Republican party is to run an independent campaign on just those values?

There’s a certain logic to it, right? But in order to make that leap, Haley would have to realize that there is no party for her to come home to. That the GOP is fundamentally changed in ways that make it inhospitable to her. And that the only solution is to begin the work of forming a new conservative party built around the ideas that were popular circa 2012.

Does she think that way? I doubt it. Politicians are, by nature, a cautious species. Haley likely believes that by simply biding her time the party will come back around to her. And so she will do just that.

But, there’s ample evidence to suggest her conclusion is wrong — most notably the presidential primary process she just participated in.

Simply put: Haley is a talent — no question about it. But her political future — especially within the current GOP — is very hard to see.