Will you still say that when she endorses Trump? She did an awful lot of defending him and aligning with him in the past. Are we sure SHE even knows what she’s about?
Your question was how she's different from Trump. I'm saying those are her policy positions, and they're not Trump's. In other words, those are ways in which a President Haley would have been different than a President Trump.
I hope Haley realizes how bad another Trump presidency would be, and declines to endorse him. But I realize she probably will, and I'll be disappointed.
about 15 seconds after Haley dropped (💔💔) i turned off the $$ donation spigot from her campaign to the Biden campaign. i am hoping that if enough of her supporters do the same, that might give Biden something of a bounce.
I agree that it's tough to see the current GOP backing Haley in the future, but she'll be fine. She can leverage her heightened profile to get corp board gigs, big lecture fees, &/or a spot as a college president. These are all standard paths. Your bigger point is valid, namely, that the GOP is no longer a party w/ any claim to traditional conservative principles. It's now comprised of a noxious coalition of the stupid, the bigoted, & the greedy. The latter are folks who always voted R&will continue to do so b/c they care only about keeping taxes down. Under Trump, it's not a conservative party, but rather a far right populist/nationalist movement.
I've always disagreed with Chris's assessment that Nikki Haley is a naturally gifted politician. I think she is very polished and clearly knows her stuff. However, she has switched between "following her principles" and "getting on board with Trump" so many times that I don't think anybody trusts her, from any wing of any party. I think her polish smacks of snake oil salesman and old style politician. The kind of folks that pay attention to politics enough to vote in a primary know that she served in Trump's administration, but then said he shouldn't be president over J6, but then said a bunch of word vomit to not support Trump but not condemn him as she campaigned against him, and then went after him like a pitbull saying he wasn't stable! She has literally advertised her opportunism at a time when the entire county, both parties(!), is incredibly skeptical of established politicians. Folks are desperate for authenticity rather than her shiny political smarm.
Yes, it means something, but it's not clear what. Are these folks who are rightly so disgusted by Trump they'll stay home? Vote for Biden? Part of the challenge is reminding people how bad Trump's record was. Another need is explaining how much good Biden has done
She lost me when she said that she pardon Trump if she was elected. Too bad, I liked her from the start of the debates. She was a better choice by far than Trump.
(i) Do you think there have been significant polling misses so far in the Republican primaries? If so, do you think this is because Trump's support was overstated in primary polls, or is it because the polls were only including Republicans, while primary rules in lots of states allowed independents and Democrats to vote in the GOP primary?
(ii) Suppose Haley *did* want to run a third- party campaign. Is that theoretically possible for her? Or would things like filing deadlines and "sore loser" laws prevent her from appearing on many states' ballots?
I would *love* to see Chris tell us why Trump underperformed the polls, even the ones he thinks so highly of, by averages of 16% to 31%, which is absolutely NOT insignificant.
Further, Chris says: “Donald Trump owns the Republican party now. Yes, there is some portion of the GOP who DO NOT want him. But, it’s nowhere near decisive.” What the hell?!? In an election that will be close, ie won or lost at the margins, for Trump to lose highly significant numbers of Republican and Independent voters may not matter in the primaries that Trump was always expected to win, but Chris could not be MORE wrong about their effect on the general election! Sure, *some* of those voters were Democrats crossing over to send a message, but the majority were unhappy R’s and I’s that do not want Trump. And sure, some number of them will choose party loyalty over morals (as McConnell always has…) and return to vote Trump in the general, but this shows just how weak Trump is, now that we’re essentially starting the general election. Where is Chris and his analysis on this?!
And as a professional salesperson for most of my career (retired a few months back but sold high-technology products to the film, television, broadcast, and streaming industries), I am offended by the crude sales pitch that Chris is now including in his posts recently, ie that “anyone can read the news but he can tell you what’s behind the story and how things will go”.
Every time he sites a flawed poll without digging into the details of the methodology (like Substack writers Jay Kuo, Jonathan V. Last, Noah Berlatsky, etc.) or every time he says something is “insignificant”, as he called the number of non-Trump Haley voters and their likely effect in the general as he did in this article, or calls something “ridiculous”, like the clear and obvious misrepresentations of the mainstream media and their focus on Biden’s age and not Trump’s increasingly obvious mental decline, yet thinking it’s “ridiculous” to think the MSM aren’t CREATING the news instead of just reporting it, it reinforces just how questionable his analysis is.
I’m not looking for Chris to be a Democratic booster, as there are plenty of excellent writers on Substack that are Democratically-aligned and focused more on how we can beat Trump, such as Simon Rosenberg, Robert B. Hubbell, Dan Pfeiffer, etc. However, when Chris misses or downplays what a huge number of writers makes clear in their cogent analyses, I have to highly question his perspective. I like Chris and I’ll continue to support him with a paid subscription, but I’m hoping to see more insightful articles in the future…
I think a new party is the only to go. Think Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Nikii and more honest moderate like minded folks. I still say that there is more of us “normies” than the radical right and left. Let’s go!
Haley is just the last candidate standing delaying her embrace for the indicted Trump-MAGA takeover of the GOP. Haley as nonwhite candidate will join Rubio, Cruz, and others committing long term political suicide without future in a far-right party.
You used “just” and “only” like 2024 is 2008. Dems just need a percent of those 1 in 3 voters (Haley) who can stay home or vote Dems like some of those Sanders voters in 2016.
Stop the CNN type analysis of 2016 party system different to 2024.
I’m holding to the idea that Republicans are using Trump to get back the WH and then are going to Article 25 him or do an Antonin Scalia on him with a myPillow. Still working out how they’re going to break that to the MAGA Faithful, tho.
Excellent explanation, Chris! I think Haley would have brought a lot to the table. I can’t understand how Donald Trump has the hold that he has over the GOP to the point where folks say he “owns”it. Are politicians in it for the good of the country or their own aggrandizement? I wonder that point more and more.
How is Nikki Haley different from Trump? Other than Ukraine? And the fact that she forms complete sentences? I don’t get it.
She is not ideologically different from Donald J Trump, but she is not a sociopath, a convicted sex offender or an indicted criminal. ……
....or the world’s biggest liar, verbal abuser, narcissist, etc.
Small government. Free trade. Rule of law. Character matters. Globalism. Pro-NATO.
Will you still say that when she endorses Trump? She did an awful lot of defending him and aligning with him in the past. Are we sure SHE even knows what she’s about?
Your question was how she's different from Trump. I'm saying those are her policy positions, and they're not Trump's. In other words, those are ways in which a President Haley would have been different than a President Trump.
I hope Haley realizes how bad another Trump presidency would be, and declines to endorse him. But I realize she probably will, and I'll be disappointed.
about 15 seconds after Haley dropped (💔💔) i turned off the $$ donation spigot from her campaign to the Biden campaign. i am hoping that if enough of her supporters do the same, that might give Biden something of a bounce.
I agree that it's tough to see the current GOP backing Haley in the future, but she'll be fine. She can leverage her heightened profile to get corp board gigs, big lecture fees, &/or a spot as a college president. These are all standard paths. Your bigger point is valid, namely, that the GOP is no longer a party w/ any claim to traditional conservative principles. It's now comprised of a noxious coalition of the stupid, the bigoted, & the greedy. The latter are folks who always voted R&will continue to do so b/c they care only about keeping taxes down. Under Trump, it's not a conservative party, but rather a far right populist/nationalist movement.
I've always disagreed with Chris's assessment that Nikki Haley is a naturally gifted politician. I think she is very polished and clearly knows her stuff. However, she has switched between "following her principles" and "getting on board with Trump" so many times that I don't think anybody trusts her, from any wing of any party. I think her polish smacks of snake oil salesman and old style politician. The kind of folks that pay attention to politics enough to vote in a primary know that she served in Trump's administration, but then said he shouldn't be president over J6, but then said a bunch of word vomit to not support Trump but not condemn him as she campaigned against him, and then went after him like a pitbull saying he wasn't stable! She has literally advertised her opportunism at a time when the entire county, both parties(!), is incredibly skeptical of established politicians. Folks are desperate for authenticity rather than her shiny political smarm.
Doesn't it say something that in a primary race that was essentially over, at worst, 1 in 5 primary voters still didn't want Trump to be the nominee?
Yes, it means something, but it's not clear what. Are these folks who are rightly so disgusted by Trump they'll stay home? Vote for Biden? Part of the challenge is reminding people how bad Trump's record was. Another need is explaining how much good Biden has done
Agreed, Chris. And many of us will pay more for a subscription to your content. Thanks!
I suspect that she too will "bend the knee" and endorse Trump.
They all do.................
Agreed. Haley’s squishy principles won’t allow for anything but an endorsement.
She lost me when she said that she pardon Trump if she was elected. Too bad, I liked her from the start of the debates. She was a better choice by far than Trump.
So true 😣
I really, really hope not. But I worry you're probably right.
She should think of becoming a moderate Democrat....she would get support.
Chris: I have two questions.
(i) Do you think there have been significant polling misses so far in the Republican primaries? If so, do you think this is because Trump's support was overstated in primary polls, or is it because the polls were only including Republicans, while primary rules in lots of states allowed independents and Democrats to vote in the GOP primary?
(ii) Suppose Haley *did* want to run a third- party campaign. Is that theoretically possible for her? Or would things like filing deadlines and "sore loser" laws prevent her from appearing on many states' ballots?
I would *love* to see Chris tell us why Trump underperformed the polls, even the ones he thinks so highly of, by averages of 16% to 31%, which is absolutely NOT insignificant.
Further, Chris says: “Donald Trump owns the Republican party now. Yes, there is some portion of the GOP who DO NOT want him. But, it’s nowhere near decisive.” What the hell?!? In an election that will be close, ie won or lost at the margins, for Trump to lose highly significant numbers of Republican and Independent voters may not matter in the primaries that Trump was always expected to win, but Chris could not be MORE wrong about their effect on the general election! Sure, *some* of those voters were Democrats crossing over to send a message, but the majority were unhappy R’s and I’s that do not want Trump. And sure, some number of them will choose party loyalty over morals (as McConnell always has…) and return to vote Trump in the general, but this shows just how weak Trump is, now that we’re essentially starting the general election. Where is Chris and his analysis on this?!
And as a professional salesperson for most of my career (retired a few months back but sold high-technology products to the film, television, broadcast, and streaming industries), I am offended by the crude sales pitch that Chris is now including in his posts recently, ie that “anyone can read the news but he can tell you what’s behind the story and how things will go”.
Every time he sites a flawed poll without digging into the details of the methodology (like Substack writers Jay Kuo, Jonathan V. Last, Noah Berlatsky, etc.) or every time he says something is “insignificant”, as he called the number of non-Trump Haley voters and their likely effect in the general as he did in this article, or calls something “ridiculous”, like the clear and obvious misrepresentations of the mainstream media and their focus on Biden’s age and not Trump’s increasingly obvious mental decline, yet thinking it’s “ridiculous” to think the MSM aren’t CREATING the news instead of just reporting it, it reinforces just how questionable his analysis is.
I’m not looking for Chris to be a Democratic booster, as there are plenty of excellent writers on Substack that are Democratically-aligned and focused more on how we can beat Trump, such as Simon Rosenberg, Robert B. Hubbell, Dan Pfeiffer, etc. However, when Chris misses or downplays what a huge number of writers makes clear in their cogent analyses, I have to highly question his perspective. I like Chris and I’ll continue to support him with a paid subscription, but I’m hoping to see more insightful articles in the future…
I think a new party is the only to go. Think Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Nikii and more honest moderate like minded folks. I still say that there is more of us “normies” than the radical right and left. Let’s go!
I’d like to see that too!
Well, Haley didn't endorse Trump. But Mitch just did.
So much for him even remotely thinking of playing spoiler/telling Repubs the truth. An institutuionalist he will always be.
Yep, not a surprise.
Haley is NOT a “very gifted”” politician.
Haley is just the last candidate standing delaying her embrace for the indicted Trump-MAGA takeover of the GOP. Haley as nonwhite candidate will join Rubio, Cruz, and others committing long term political suicide without future in a far-right party.
You used “just” and “only” like 2024 is 2008. Dems just need a percent of those 1 in 3 voters (Haley) who can stay home or vote Dems like some of those Sanders voters in 2016.
Stop the CNN type analysis of 2016 party system different to 2024.
WAKE UP!
Sad; but, true, CC.
I’m holding to the idea that Republicans are using Trump to get back the WH and then are going to Article 25 him or do an Antonin Scalia on him with a myPillow. Still working out how they’re going to break that to the MAGA Faithful, tho.
Like it. Right on.
Excellent explanation, Chris! I think Haley would have brought a lot to the table. I can’t understand how Donald Trump has the hold that he has over the GOP to the point where folks say he “owns”it. Are politicians in it for the good of the country or their own aggrandizement? I wonder that point more and more.
“Ambassador to India. Or something. Just don’t endorse the POS and you got a job waiting.”