15 Comments

And if Nikki dropped out, the result might possibly be just the opposite of what you wrote. And then I think there would be a REAL horse race. Nikki Haley is NOT going to garner the nomination instead of Trump. I just don't see it. BUT maybe Chris could in do it a head to head match up. Just sayin'.

Expand full comment

Given how little Republicans seem to dislike Christie (some 60+% have said they will NEVER vote for him under ANY circumstance), I don’t see him EVER winning the nomination. Him dropping out and Haley picking up his supporters, however, does at least seem possible, if not probable.

Chris Cillizza has an interesting perspective on this....

Expand full comment

That should have been “Given how little Republicans seem to like Christie...”

Expand full comment

I think you have an incorrect view of the GOP primary electorate. Haley has far broader appeal. Christie is seen as a northeastern RINO.

Expand full comment

What I suggested was the numbers wouldn’t change much. And I don’t find her “appealing” whatsoever.

Expand full comment

stupid math always gets in the way

Expand full comment
founding

Christie could drop out and make just as much noise from the pundit chair...

Expand full comment

Christie is the only one who has really come out against Trump, the others tend to be a bit wishy washy and will vote for him if the nominee. However, I don’t see Christie moving the needle all that much. I am quite stunned at the muted response from the candidates as to how bad Trump is for democracy. If they really wanted to say how much better of a candidate they are, scream from the rooftops that Trump is a liar, cheat, helped stoke the flames J6, etc., etc.. Unfortunately, Christie is not well liked in the republican world, hoping that if/when he leaves, his votes go to Haley. I don’t think Haley will ultimately win the nomination but one could hope. Not much of a Haley fan but a far better candidate than Trump, we won’t be going over that cliff.

Expand full comment

At the Republican debate Christie did not say some very obvious things about Trump that might just matter to Americans. Trump stole secrets!!!! Trump his them in bathroom and he shared some of them. Trump tried to stay in power in a bunch of illegal ways including sending a mob to Congress to hang the Vice President. ( hyperbole, but true). Trump cheats on finances while we pay taxes because of his deficits. Christie didn’t say any of this so is he really seriously thinking of taking down Trump?

Expand full comment

On the NH primary generally: MEH. It’s not particularly predictive in the case of a fluid field. Gary Hart (D) won it in 1984, John McCain (R) in 2000, Bernie Sanders (D-I) 2020. Sure, Trump won in 2016, but that wasn’t a fluid field, 17 wannabe candidates notwithstanding.

Expand full comment

Why don’t all of the never-Trump republicans just give up on an alternative to Trump. Look who is now the House speaker. Mitch McConnell can barely control his faction. It is time to make the Republican Party lose so badly that maybe they would see the light. Romney has told us he doesn’t recognize his party any longer. Read about the Heritage Foundation plan for 2025 and decide if any Republicans could be entrusted with power again.

Expand full comment

That’s very interesting. I was living in NJ when Christie was in power so can’t say that I like him (or Haley) but wouldn’t that be I amazing to watch. I guess stay tuned. 😬

Expand full comment

This is an interesting column because you're right, Christie is running a vanity campaign to maintain his relevancy and to continue to get booked on Sunday shows, but his whole campaign doesn't really work when Trump won't show up to the debates.

If Christie doesn't make the next debate, I don't see how he justifies staying in the race.

The other issues with Christie's campaign are that he keeps saying Trump can't win, which maybe! but polls right now show the exact opposite and where he stands on any issue doesn't matter since his campaign is just no, not him, and Christie's not going to win.

I am curious how long Vivek stays in. He has $ and he seems to be having a lot of fun, he just needs to know when to get out before Trump turns on him.

Expand full comment

I don’t like Haley’s politics , but she’s not crazy. She is the best hope for a return to a sane person on the top of the GOP ticket, and we need a return to sanity if this country is ever going to be governed effectively . Ending Trump’s reign on the GOP is essential to that goal. Btw, Mike Murphy reports he is hearing Christie might just do what Chris suggests . It could be a game changer. Worth a try.

Expand full comment
founding

maybe its time to start a change.org petition to ask everybody else to drop out and support Haley.

Expand full comment