Why Chris Christie needs to get out NOW

There's only one chance to beat Trump.

(Chris Christie)

Let’s start with this simple fact: If Donald Trump wins both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the race for the Republican presidential nomination is over.

Here’s why:

1. Trump will have proven that he can turn his polling appeal into actual votes. (Again.)

2. There will be tremendous pressure on the Trump-friendly candidates (Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy) to get out of the race and endorse him.

3. There isn’t another primary vote for another MONTH — when South Carolina votes on February 24. By that time, momentum (and money) will be all behind Trump.

That combination of factors means there would be no stopping the Trump train if he scores wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. NONE.

So, the only chance the anti-Trump forces have is to beat him either next Monday in Iowa or a week from Tuesday in New Hampshire. That’s it.

Iowa, if you believe polling, is already a lost cause. Trump’s average — AVERAGE — lead in Iowa right now is more than 35 points.

There is no polling data anywhere that suggests that Trump could lose Iowa. In fact, the only question in my mind is whether he wins the caucuses by the biggest margin in history. That margin? Twelve points — by Bob Dole in 1988. Trump should smash that record.

So, Iowa’s off the table. Which leaves New Hampshire. Where Nikki Haley, at least, is showing some signs of life. Trump’s average lead in the Granite State is under 15 points.

Which is something!

Now, before you get too optimistic, consider this: A massive Trump win in Iowa could well lead to a whole lot of “it’s already over” coverage in the 8 days between that vote and the New Hampshire primary. Which could drive Trump’s numbers up, and Haley’s down.

But let’s — for the sake of argument — assume that doesn’t happen. That Trump and Haley largely hold steady post-Iowa.

Go back and look at those recent New Hampshire polls. Ignore Trump and Haley. Look at the numbers for Chris Christie. In each of the last three polls, he’s steady at 12% — a series of data points that suggest a) Christie has a constituency in the state and b) that constituency is nowhere near big enough for him to make a real run at Trump.

Now, again, remember that if Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire — even if Haley comes in second in each — the race is over.

When you do that, you are left with a very simple conclusion: Sometime between now and, about, January 20th, Christie needs to get out of the race and throw his support behind Haley.

There’s just no other way if — and that is a big IF — the only goal for Christie and the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party is to pull every lever it can to keep the former president from winning.

(Sidebar: I suppose there is another way — that Haley, even with Christie in the race, beats Trump outright. Of course, anything is possible. But I don’t see that happening — at least not right now.)

Would it work? Probably not, if I am being honest. For a few reasons:

1. There’s no guarantee that EVERY Christie voter goes over to Haley simply because he drops out and endorses her

2. If DeSantis and/or Ramaswamy drop out before New Hampshire — and it’s hard to see DeSantis especially staying in if he doesn’t finish a surprisingly strong 2nd in Iowa — those votes would, in the main, go to Trump. And that movement could cancel out Christie voters’ movement to Haley.

3. Iowa — to my point above — might serve as a massive springboard for Trump, turning New Hampshire into a coronation, not a contest.

And, even if Haley does win New Hampshire, that is no guarantee that she is the nominee. Not even close! All that would mean is that the fight for the nomination will last (at least) another month. I still think Trump would be a heavy favorite to win that two-person race.

But, again, the anti Trump forces have VERY few good options. Basically, none. New Hampshire is it. (The state’s highly educated and affluent Republican voters make the state uniquely situated to upset Trump. Read POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin on that.)

Now, Christie has been adamant that he won’t get out before New Hampshire. “Anyone who thinks I am getting out of this race is crazy,” he said on “Morning Joe” last week.

Christie’s logic — as best as I can understand it — is that only he in the field a) understands the threat posed by Trump and b) is willing to speak publicly about that threat.

Under that line of thinking, Haley is insufficiently willing to call out Trump for his radicalism and excesses. She is, to hear Christie tell it, running to either be Trump’s running mate in 2024 or to be the party’s frontrunner in 2028.

And here’s the thing: I TOTALLY agree with him. Haley HAS been timid in her criticisms of Trump. I think she ABSOLUTELY would accept the VP gig if Trump offered it. And I have NO doubt that she has one eye on 2028.

But, that is all besides the point if the goal — the only goal — is to keep Trump from being the Republican presidential nominee. Like it or not, Haley represents the only chance for that to happen. And if Christie is serious about the threat that Trump poses to both the GOP and the country, he’s only got on option to prove it: To get out of the race and endorse Haley. ASAP.