What continues to infuriate me when I hear the polling numbers about President Biden's age is that TRUMP IS JUST 3 YEARS YOUNGER!! Even if there were decades separating them, I'd still take an older, seasoned politician who's kept us out of an economic recession over the guy who tried to overthrow the country, has been credibly accused of multiple crimes, and has been found by courts to be a rapist. But hey, that's just me.
As was the case a few times in the past and probably even more true for 2024 this presidential election might be more about who you are not going to vote for rather than who you want to vote for. Trump and Biden both come with baggage, so a year from now it might come down to who Americans want less. Got to love a political campaign season about who is least worst.
Hal, I do think that no matter who wins there will be a hold-your-nose-and-vote-for-them element. I always say that people don't really want the election to come down to Biden vs Trump but that's the way it's looking and, well, someone has to win!
True someof e has to win and it's going to be Bidn who will win. There is no need to panic now or in the future.Biden won in 2020 and he is going to win again in 2024. I don't believe all these polls. Look at their margin of error and I don't even know if they are polling mostly Republicans. The secret of all these noises including the polls is that some people in the press want Trump to come back because of his controversial personality and they think it would attract viewers to their network. That's just the truth
Dr I, there's too much at stake to risk letting up on the gas. We all felt Trump was unelectable and Hillary was a deserving, if unpopular, candidate who had the election sewed up. Then she came out with the "basket of deplorables" an assessment with which I agree, but I'm not running for office and Jim Comey had his "reopening the email investigation" October surprise (by his own words he was certain she was going to win and didn't want her taking office with rumors of a suppressed investigation over her head).
Always assume and plan for the worst case scenario, that way all your surprises will be pleasant ones and you'll never be disappointed.
I fully expect Joe Biden to be reelected but I never thought I'd have to hear the phrase President Trump either.
With 14 months to go, I refuse to get nervous and jerky over the 2024 election. Then again, I’m no longer a Democrat having changed parties in order to vote against Elise Stefanik in the primary next year. Unfortunately, I’ll probably have the chance to vote against her twice next year.
Due to my vocal opposition in letters to the editor I might get a little nervous when Trump gets elected and Stefanik is secretary of gulags, tho. Pretty sure the ones for RINOs aren’t going to be any better than the ones for far left Democrats.
Biden won in 2020 with electoral votes to spare. I realize that’s not a reason to be complacent. The Republican state party in Arizona is all the way insane. The Republican state party in Georgia is at least half insane. In Wisconsin, they’re planning to impeach a left leaning judge who hasn’t heard a case yet. That seems like a great way to drive Democratic turnout next year.
If Trump flips all 3 of those states he gets to a tie, if my math is right. Seems unlikely. Also, can’t see why abortion and the survival of the republic wouldn’t once again be on the ballot as they seemed to be in the red tsunami year of 2022.
Biden is currently being compared to the Almighty if you believe all these polls. Remember in 2022 when they all said there was going to be a red wave. But it never happened. But in any case , Biden would be compared with Trump in 2024 and he( Biden ) will win again as he did in 2020.
I don’t know if Trump is Biden’s “only path to victory”, as you’ve noted, but I do think it’s his strongest path to get the result we ALL need for the sake of American democracy. I think that if the economic numbers stay good, and his campaign puts a laser focus on those good numbers, he can turn those poll numbers around. It’s not easy, ie making the case that the Reality is not the same as the Perceived, but I believe it IS possible. Call me naive, but I think that’s possible if we focus on “the messaging”.
Larry, I think it's possible but not probably. Every campaign since time began has said "All we need to do is clearly communicate what we've done to voters and we will win."
That doesn't always work. People get ideas in their heads -- and stick with those ideas even when presented with evidence that disputes them. I think that's Biden's challenge on the economy.
You may well be right on that, but I hope not! However, running against Trump is indeed the BEST thing that could happen for Biden and 2024. Sure, lots of people polled that they didn’t want to see a Biden-Trump rematch, but if that’s what the election will be, Biden’s got a MUCH better chance at the win. (As an aside, it would be great to see some in-depth analysis from you RE the latest WSJ poll that’s being discussed and the questionable Fabrizio sourcing, imbalance of Republican voters polled that don’t match the national average of numbers of Republican voters, etc)
That's exactly what I was thinking too. I'm honestly not convinced that the samples these poll stars are using is not representative enough of the American people. The real poll is when people actually go to vote. Remember the so called Red wave predictions of 2022 whi never happened.
What does it mean to “didn’t want to see a Trump-Biden rematch”? If I were answering a poll and the questioner asked me if I wanted to see a Trump-Biden rematch I’d say “hell no, Trump is the last person I’d want as a presidential nominee” but I’d happily vote for Biden regardless of whom he was running against. I don’t get this “75% of the country doesn’t want to see a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024” statistic that journalists keep trotting out.
Well, Chris -- If the media would JUST SHUT UP about Biden's age, maybe we could get back to policies and initiatives and things like that. He's old, #45 is old, I'm old, a lot of people are old. Deal with it. This is not "breaking news"!
I turned off CNN this morning because Biden's age was ALL they wanted to talk about for what seemed like three hours. Oh, wait, it WAS three hours.
Trump will implode before election day! Democrats will win regardless of who their nominee is. American voters are just too smart to make the Trump mistake twice. They may not be willing right now to honestly answer poll questions, just holding on to their minuscule hope that Trump can win. But let’s face it, he is finished. He is just strutting around the Boxing ring right now but wait until the bell rings to start the fight.
"American voters are just too smart to make the Trump mistake twice"
You weren't at Thanksgiving with my extended family and their friends last year. The Republicans have an advantage baked into the electoral college and the judicial system. We need to be extremely vigilant and active leading up to 2024.
Appreciate your insight, Chris, as always, I am in the nervous Nelly camp. I would prefer to not have a Biden vs Trump rematch. I would prefer to have neither candidate be running but at the very least, Biden vs. any other GOP. Well, perhaps not DeSantis. Ugh. This is what we have come to? Seriously?? Yes, Biden beat Trump in 2020 but am so afraid the age thing will weigh heavily against Biden. IMO, it should also be said about Trump, along with all the other baggage that Trump has. Also, could be a convicted felon by that point and he could still win. It’s too close for comfort and while I know we still have 14 months to go, I think it’s all baked in at this point. We don’t have someone new to say, let’s give him/her a chance. I am very worried for democracy.
Iam very skeptical about this cnn poll that says Nikki Haley whos is polling just 7% among the Republicans but beating the sitting President Biden by six points. It just doesn't sound right to me. She is not even that popular among her fellow Republicans
True. But remember polling by news outlets isn't necessarily about measuring how the public really feels. It's about generating clicks and getting eyeballs on the (virtual) printed page and TV screen.
I understand you need to make a living but sad that so many things are subscriber only now, including one of the most fun things you do, transcript analysis
These poll results make me sick to my stomach. Barring a serious health issue, I don’t see Biden backing out. Even if he did, Harris would likely face some primary competition. Considering how long the GOP primary has been going on *already,* it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of time left. Ugh.
Yeah. I think two things can be true: 1) Democrats (and the general public think Biden is too old and 2) He is still the strongest candidate to beat Trump.
This bears repeating🗣️The polls are representative of the majority of the people who answered the poll, it is NOT representative of the majority of actual voters or the perspective of the majority of the nation. The WSJ skews toward the right and its been repeatedly shown that the CNN poll over sampled Republicans and Independents who lean Republican. Of the 1,503 respondents to the poll- 898 were Rs or R leaning and 391 were Democrats or D leaning. Yet once again too many in the media present this information as if this is the sentiment or thinking of a nation with over 300 million people in it. I truly miss the days when the media did a better job of more fully informing the electorate rather than TMZ level analysis coupled with reality TV horse race punditocracy. The 4th Estate continues to fail us at a time when our democracy is in peril. Democrats shouldn’t panic because these polls are snapshots of a minuscule group of oversampled Republicans who don’t vote for Democrats. I look forward to you addressing the problem with this and other polls in general but l won’t hold my breath as I fully believe what
Upton Sinclair said— 'It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’
I think all of you silly Democrats should just relax, and let it happen. Uncle Joe will come and save you, perched atop his white steed, with handlers on both sides to assure he doesn’t fall off. The only possible problem would come if the horse took a step.😄
What continues to infuriate me when I hear the polling numbers about President Biden's age is that TRUMP IS JUST 3 YEARS YOUNGER!! Even if there were decades separating them, I'd still take an older, seasoned politician who's kept us out of an economic recession over the guy who tried to overthrow the country, has been credibly accused of multiple crimes, and has been found by courts to be a rapist. But hey, that's just me.
And that’s me, too, Krista.
As was the case a few times in the past and probably even more true for 2024 this presidential election might be more about who you are not going to vote for rather than who you want to vote for. Trump and Biden both come with baggage, so a year from now it might come down to who Americans want less. Got to love a political campaign season about who is least worst.
Hal, I do think that no matter who wins there will be a hold-your-nose-and-vote-for-them element. I always say that people don't really want the election to come down to Biden vs Trump but that's the way it's looking and, well, someone has to win!
True someof e has to win and it's going to be Bidn who will win. There is no need to panic now or in the future.Biden won in 2020 and he is going to win again in 2024. I don't believe all these polls. Look at their margin of error and I don't even know if they are polling mostly Republicans. The secret of all these noises including the polls is that some people in the press want Trump to come back because of his controversial personality and they think it would attract viewers to their network. That's just the truth
Dr I, there's too much at stake to risk letting up on the gas. We all felt Trump was unelectable and Hillary was a deserving, if unpopular, candidate who had the election sewed up. Then she came out with the "basket of deplorables" an assessment with which I agree, but I'm not running for office and Jim Comey had his "reopening the email investigation" October surprise (by his own words he was certain she was going to win and didn't want her taking office with rumors of a suppressed investigation over her head).
Always assume and plan for the worst case scenario, that way all your surprises will be pleasant ones and you'll never be disappointed.
I fully expect Joe Biden to be reelected but I never thought I'd have to hear the phrase President Trump either.
But I worry that dems won’t come out to vote if they feel that strongly about Biden
Appreciate the depth of your analysis - on all sides of each topic. I do not always agree, however, I respect your positions and points of view.
It confirms why I subscribe - Thank you!
Thanks, Mike. I always say I am doing my best to figure this stuff out. But I by no means have a monopoly on good or right ideas.
With 14 months to go, I refuse to get nervous and jerky over the 2024 election. Then again, I’m no longer a Democrat having changed parties in order to vote against Elise Stefanik in the primary next year. Unfortunately, I’ll probably have the chance to vote against her twice next year.
Due to my vocal opposition in letters to the editor I might get a little nervous when Trump gets elected and Stefanik is secretary of gulags, tho. Pretty sure the ones for RINOs aren’t going to be any better than the ones for far left Democrats.
Biden won in 2020 with electoral votes to spare. I realize that’s not a reason to be complacent. The Republican state party in Arizona is all the way insane. The Republican state party in Georgia is at least half insane. In Wisconsin, they’re planning to impeach a left leaning judge who hasn’t heard a case yet. That seems like a great way to drive Democratic turnout next year.
If Trump flips all 3 of those states he gets to a tie, if my math is right. Seems unlikely. Also, can’t see why abortion and the survival of the republic wouldn’t once again be on the ballot as they seemed to be in the red tsunami year of 2022.
Biden is currently being compared to the Almighty if you believe all these polls. Remember in 2022 when they all said there was going to be a red wave. But it never happened. But in any case , Biden would be compared with Trump in 2024 and he( Biden ) will win again as he did in 2020.
I compare Trump to the almighty 😈
I don’t know if Trump is Biden’s “only path to victory”, as you’ve noted, but I do think it’s his strongest path to get the result we ALL need for the sake of American democracy. I think that if the economic numbers stay good, and his campaign puts a laser focus on those good numbers, he can turn those poll numbers around. It’s not easy, ie making the case that the Reality is not the same as the Perceived, but I believe it IS possible. Call me naive, but I think that’s possible if we focus on “the messaging”.
Larry, I think it's possible but not probably. Every campaign since time began has said "All we need to do is clearly communicate what we've done to voters and we will win."
That doesn't always work. People get ideas in their heads -- and stick with those ideas even when presented with evidence that disputes them. I think that's Biden's challenge on the economy.
You may well be right on that, but I hope not! However, running against Trump is indeed the BEST thing that could happen for Biden and 2024. Sure, lots of people polled that they didn’t want to see a Biden-Trump rematch, but if that’s what the election will be, Biden’s got a MUCH better chance at the win. (As an aside, it would be great to see some in-depth analysis from you RE the latest WSJ poll that’s being discussed and the questionable Fabrizio sourcing, imbalance of Republican voters polled that don’t match the national average of numbers of Republican voters, etc)
That's exactly what I was thinking too. I'm honestly not convinced that the samples these poll stars are using is not representative enough of the American people. The real poll is when people actually go to vote. Remember the so called Red wave predictions of 2022 whi never happened.
What does it mean to “didn’t want to see a Trump-Biden rematch”? If I were answering a poll and the questioner asked me if I wanted to see a Trump-Biden rematch I’d say “hell no, Trump is the last person I’d want as a presidential nominee” but I’d happily vote for Biden regardless of whom he was running against. I don’t get this “75% of the country doesn’t want to see a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024” statistic that journalists keep trotting out.
Well, Chris -- If the media would JUST SHUT UP about Biden's age, maybe we could get back to policies and initiatives and things like that. He's old, #45 is old, I'm old, a lot of people are old. Deal with it. This is not "breaking news"!
I turned off CNN this morning because Biden's age was ALL they wanted to talk about for what seemed like three hours. Oh, wait, it WAS three hours.
Trump will implode before election day! Democrats will win regardless of who their nominee is. American voters are just too smart to make the Trump mistake twice. They may not be willing right now to honestly answer poll questions, just holding on to their minuscule hope that Trump can win. But let’s face it, he is finished. He is just strutting around the Boxing ring right now but wait until the bell rings to start the fight.
"American voters are just too smart to make the Trump mistake twice"
You weren't at Thanksgiving with my extended family and their friends last year. The Republicans have an advantage baked into the electoral college and the judicial system. We need to be extremely vigilant and active leading up to 2024.
Appreciate your insight, Chris, as always, I am in the nervous Nelly camp. I would prefer to not have a Biden vs Trump rematch. I would prefer to have neither candidate be running but at the very least, Biden vs. any other GOP. Well, perhaps not DeSantis. Ugh. This is what we have come to? Seriously?? Yes, Biden beat Trump in 2020 but am so afraid the age thing will weigh heavily against Biden. IMO, it should also be said about Trump, along with all the other baggage that Trump has. Also, could be a convicted felon by that point and he could still win. It’s too close for comfort and while I know we still have 14 months to go, I think it’s all baked in at this point. We don’t have someone new to say, let’s give him/her a chance. I am very worried for democracy.
Iam very skeptical about this cnn poll that says Nikki Haley whos is polling just 7% among the Republicans but beating the sitting President Biden by six points. It just doesn't sound right to me. She is not even that popular among her fellow Republicans
"It just doesn't sound right to me" is not sufficient reason to ignore the polls.
Look at it this way, if you're right we may have gotten a bit more agitated and worked a bit harder for Biden's campaign than was necessary.
If I'm right, it's goodbye constitutional republic; hello King Donald, first of the Trump family line.
What's your Plan B in that situation?
There’s a science to framing poll questions. Hire new scientists?
True. But remember polling by news outlets isn't necessarily about measuring how the public really feels. It's about generating clicks and getting eyeballs on the (virtual) printed page and TV screen.
Yes. It’s become a genre.
I understand you need to make a living but sad that so many things are subscriber only now, including one of the most fun things you do, transcript analysis
I sure hope that your (muted) optimism is justified.
These poll results make me sick to my stomach. Barring a serious health issue, I don’t see Biden backing out. Even if he did, Harris would likely face some primary competition. Considering how long the GOP primary has been going on *already,* it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of time left. Ugh.
Yeah. I think two things can be true: 1) Democrats (and the general public think Biden is too old and 2) He is still the strongest candidate to beat Trump.
Yeah. I just worry about turnout. There’s so little margin for error.
This bears repeating🗣️The polls are representative of the majority of the people who answered the poll, it is NOT representative of the majority of actual voters or the perspective of the majority of the nation. The WSJ skews toward the right and its been repeatedly shown that the CNN poll over sampled Republicans and Independents who lean Republican. Of the 1,503 respondents to the poll- 898 were Rs or R leaning and 391 were Democrats or D leaning. Yet once again too many in the media present this information as if this is the sentiment or thinking of a nation with over 300 million people in it. I truly miss the days when the media did a better job of more fully informing the electorate rather than TMZ level analysis coupled with reality TV horse race punditocracy. The 4th Estate continues to fail us at a time when our democracy is in peril. Democrats shouldn’t panic because these polls are snapshots of a minuscule group of oversampled Republicans who don’t vote for Democrats. I look forward to you addressing the problem with this and other polls in general but l won’t hold my breath as I fully believe what
Upton Sinclair said— 'It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’
I think all of you silly Democrats should just relax, and let it happen. Uncle Joe will come and save you, perched atop his white steed, with handlers on both sides to assure he doesn’t fall off. The only possible problem would come if the horse took a step.😄