Why don't Democrats want Joe Biden anymore?

Wither Uncle Joe.

Consider these two data points:

1. Almost 6 in 10 (58%) of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want someone other than Joe Biden to run for president in 2024. That’s according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

2. Just 37% of Democrats say they want Biden to seek a second term in a new AP-NORC national poll.

Those findings tell the same story — just from different sides: A clear majority of Democrats do not want the sitting Democratic president of the United States to run again.

And this is no new phenomenon. As far back as the summer of 2022, 60%+ of Democrats were saying they didn’t want Biden to run again in 2024. (A New York Times/Siena poll showed that 64% of Democrats wanted someone other than Biden as the party’s next nominee.)

All of which is STRIKING. And a clear break from recent history.

Consider where then President Barack Obama stood on that same question in October 2010. At that time, which was not a great moment for Democrats as they prepared to be walloped in the midterm elections, 83% of Democrats in Pew polling said they wanted Obama to run for a 2nd term. 83%!

Or go back even further. In December 1994 — a month removed from a historic Republican takeover of the House — more than 6 in 10 Democrats (61%) still wanted Bill Clinton to run for another term in 1996.

The simple fact is that it is unprecedented in modern times for a Democratic president (or a Republican one) to have so many people within his party actively rooting against him seeking another term. And these latest numbers on Biden come just a few months removed from a far-better-than-expected showing for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections!

So, well, why? Why do so many Democrats just not want Biden anymore? A few thoughts.

1. Age: Biden is 80. If he is reelected, he will turn 82 before he is inaugurated to a 2nd term and 86 before he is finished with that term. That makes him, by far, the oldest person ever elected president and the oldest president ever to seek reelection.

   In an Associated Press story accompanying its latest poll findings, the age issue rears its head. Here’s the key bit:

   “Follow-up interviews with poll respondents suggest that many believe the 80-year-old’s age is a liability, with people focused on his coughing, his gait, his gaffes and the possibility that the world’s most stressful job would be better suited for someone younger.”

   There’s no question that Biden has slowed in the last decade or so. In a physical conducted by the White House physician in November 2021, the doctor said that Biden’s gait is “perceptibly stiffer and less fluid” even while adding that he is “healthy” and remains “fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency.”

   Republicans have made much of Biden’s tendency to misspeak and even lose his train of thought. Of course, veteran Biden watchers note that he has never been a particularly gifted public speaker and suffers from the long-windedness that often afflicts those who have spent years in the Senate.

   Partisan attacks aside, it’s clear that Biden’s age — whether it be worries about his capacity to do the job of president or a desire for a new generation of leaders — is a major issue for Democrats looking for the party’s 2024 nominee.

   “Could we please find somebody under 75 to be our president,” Democratic strategist James Carville asked last month. “Just for the fun of it?”

2. The Obama comp. Democrats are forever looking for the next Obama — the once-in-a -generation leader who can inspire, um, hope and change while fundamentally reshaping the political map.

   Biden, well, isn’t that. Whereas Obama was an outsider coming in to shake up the system, Biden is an institutionalist through and through — spending the majority of his time in politics in that redoubt of establishment politics: The Senate.

   While the Biden people don’t like the comparison — for obvious reasons — it was on vivid display in the final weeks of the 2022 campaign. Obama seemed to be everywhere — revving up the Democratic base with his remarkable gift for speechmaking. The Obama events had an energy and excitement that was simply absent from similar Biden rallies.

   Now, the truth of the matter is that any politician of recent vintage will struggle when compared to Obama. Like him or hate him, Obama is, without question, the most talented politician to emerge on the national stage in decades. (His easy wins in 2008 and 2012 speak to his candidate quality.)

   But Biden uniquely suffers from the comparison, having served as Obama’s vice president for 8 years and being the next Democrat to be elected to the White House after him.

3. The grass is always greener effect. This is a corollary of the Obama comparison. The fact is that Democrats always want what they don’t have.

   And so, Pete Buttigieg, currently the Secretary of Transportation, looks really, really appealing to Democrats. He’s young (41!), he’s telegenic and he’s wicked smart. So appealing that there’s polling out there that suggests that Buttigieg would beat Biden in the New Hampshire primary!

   Of course, the grass isn’t always greener. In fact, it rarely is. Every candidate has his or her own weaknesses that become apparent when that person goes from a pie-in-the-sky dream candidate to, well, actual candidate. In Buttigieg’s case, it’s not clear to me that he has solved the problem that dragged down his 2020 presidential bid: A lack of appeal in black and brown communities.

What’s perhaps most remarkable about Biden’s numbers is that they haven’t attracted any ambitious pol looking to take a crack at him in the coming primary fight. And, unless you consider Marianne Williamson to be a serious candidate (I don’t) then there doesn’t even appear to be anyone considering the race who might actually pose a threat to Biden.

Which is sort of incredible when you consider that 6o%+ of DEMOCRATS say they do not want Biden as their nominee again in 2024.

What explains the lack of a credible challenger to Biden? The power of incumbency is VERY strong. And the rest of the Democratic potential field has its reasons for staying out. Kamala Harris is tied at the hip to Biden and content to wait until 2028. Buttigieg, given how young he is, can absolutely wait another four years. Ditto Gavin Newsom in California. And Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan.

Add it all up and you get this: Democrats may not want Biden in 2024 but, barring some cataclysm, they’re going to get him.