Oh REALLY. They gave Clinton a better than 70 % chance of winning. But you know who got 2016 right?, It was Prof. Allan Litchman. Guess who he said is likely to win in November,President Biden.
2016 was an outlier election for the presidency, because so much happened in this final weeks that it was almost impossible for pollsters to capture any trends among late breaking, and relatively low information voters.
538 actually got 2016 better than anyone else. They showed Trump having a reasonable chance of winning.
Oh REALLY. They gave Clinton a better than 70 % chance of winning. But you know who got 2016 right?, It was Prof. Allan Litchman. Guess who he said is likely to win in November,President Biden.
Just for reference, here was the 538 projection of the 2016 election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Indeed.
2016 was an outlier election for the presidency, because so much happened in this final weeks that it was almost impossible for pollsters to capture any trends among late breaking, and relatively low information voters.