Polls do not purport to tell anyone who will win. They are a snapshot in time of a representative opinion sample. Actual voting and counting is the only thing that tells us who won, and includes a bunch of factors that pollsters have an incredibly hard time measuring. Voting habits change by state laws allowing mail-in and early voting, …
Polls do not purport to tell anyone who will win. They are a snapshot in time of a representative opinion sample. Actual voting and counting is the only thing that tells us who won, and includes a bunch of factors that pollsters have an incredibly hard time measuring. Voting habits change by state laws allowing mail-in and early voting, the number of polling places and wait times, and even the weather in certain places. Especially in very close elections, polling has little way of capturing those factors that are election-day specific.
Polls do not purport to tell anyone who will win. They are a snapshot in time of a representative opinion sample. Actual voting and counting is the only thing that tells us who won, and includes a bunch of factors that pollsters have an incredibly hard time measuring. Voting habits change by state laws allowing mail-in and early voting, the number of polling places and wait times, and even the weather in certain places. Especially in very close elections, polling has little way of capturing those factors that are election-day specific.