So based on Merrill’s comment I went into each of the demographics of the participant groups for the swing states and found the following (urban/rural): PA (65/35); WI (48/52); AZ (75/25); GA (61/39); MI (62/38); and NV (82/18). The only state that really looks out of whack WI which is 70% urban vs 30% rural. I didn’t look up the distrib…
So based on Merrill’s comment I went into each of the demographics of the participant groups for the swing states and found the following (urban/rural): PA (65/35); WI (48/52); AZ (75/25); GA (61/39); MI (62/38); and NV (82/18). The only state that really looks out of whack WI which is 70% urban vs 30% rural. I didn’t look up the distributions in the other states. Regardless, the poll states: “To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.” So, even if the demographics of the respondents didn’t match the overall population, the poll accounted for this in their results through their weightings.
Thanks for looking into the urban/rural split. If you check census stats you'll see that truly rural population in the US is about 24% so I'm not sure how you determined the Times poll isn't biased to rural voters who are far more conservative/MAGA than urban voters.
So based on Merrill’s comment I went into each of the demographics of the participant groups for the swing states and found the following (urban/rural): PA (65/35); WI (48/52); AZ (75/25); GA (61/39); MI (62/38); and NV (82/18). The only state that really looks out of whack WI which is 70% urban vs 30% rural. I didn’t look up the distributions in the other states. Regardless, the poll states: “To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.” So, even if the demographics of the respondents didn’t match the overall population, the poll accounted for this in their results through their weightings.
According to the Census Bureau, 80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas. The remaining 20% lives in areas classified as rural.
Jim
Thanks for looking into the urban/rural split. If you check census stats you'll see that truly rural population in the US is about 24% so I'm not sure how you determined the Times poll isn't biased to rural voters who are far more conservative/MAGA than urban voters.