Why Republicans should -- but won't -- nominate Nikki Haley

Paradox!

This chart, posted by Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign on Thursday, paints a pretty stark picture of the coming general election:

And that chart doesn’t even include the new Fox news poll that showed Haley leading Joe Biden by 11 while Ron DeSantis has a 5-point edge over the president and Donald Trump leads by 4.

It’s become clear — especially over the last few weeks — that Haley is running well ahead of the other Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups with Biden. And that, at least as of today, she represents the party’s best chance to win back the White House in 2024.

“If they nominate Nikki Haley, we’re in trouble,” a senior Democratic strategist close with the Biden campaign told Politico back in August. That’s only become more clear in the intervening months.

And yet…Haley remains a decided underdog to Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationally. There are ways you can imagine her becoming the nominee but they require the equivalent of a triple Lindy — making them, at best, long shots.

So, what gives? After all, you would assume that the FIRST and ONLY priority for Republicans would be to nominate someone who has the best chance to win, right?

Well….not really.

It’s been apparent for a while now that the majority of Republican voters would rather have a nominee who thinks like they do about the world than one who is most likely to win.

All the way back in March, CNN did a poll that found 59% of Republican voters saying they’d choose a candidate who agreed with them on major issues while 41% said they’d rather someone who has a strong chance to beat Biden.

That polling data represented a stark difference in thinking from how Democrats approached their own presidential choice in 2020 — as illustrated here by FiveThirtyEight:

Democrats were quite clearly motivated to pick someone who could beat Trump. Which was Biden’s entire pitch in the primary! And he wound up making good on it!

And yet, even though Republicans, by all accounts, loathe the direction that Biden has taken the country and badly want to replace him next year, they seem entirely comfortable passing over the candidate who gives them the best chance to do just that.

So, again, what gives?

My pet theory has long been that Republican base voters — far more than Democratic base voters — make choices with their hearts, not their heads.

As in, they like the idea of picking someone who can win but, when it comes down to it, opt for the person who speaks to their emotions, their gut.

And that person is, obviously, Trump. Like him or hate him, he is a master manipulator of peoples’ emotions — particularly on the negative side.

While Haley is making clear-eyed arguments about policy (and electability), Trump is calling his opponents “vermin” and promising to use the levers of government to punish people who oppose him.

For voters who vote with their hearts, it’s not a close fight. And, the heart’s feelings often trump — ahem — the mind’s logic.

Evidence? Over the summer, Monmouth University did a poll where they asked Republicans who the strongest general election candidate against Biden was. Almost 7 in 10 (69%) chose Trump — including 45% who said Trump would “definitely” be the strongest candidate.

There’s also this: While Haley is, without debate, the strongest Republican nominee against Biden, Trump is also running well against the Democrat. So, while Haley is up 11 against Biden in that Fox News poll, Trump is up 4. Sure, you’d rather be ahead by 11 than 4. But Trump is still ahead!

Maybe things would be different if Trump was behind Biden by 10 points in that same poll that Haley led Biden by 10. Maybe.

I also want to throw one more theory out there about why electability doesn’t matter to Republicans as much as, in theory, it should.

It’s not my idea. It’s one I have heard proposed by my very smart friends at The Bulwark: Will Saletan and Jonathan V. Last.

Here’s JVL on what may be motivating Republicans:

“Normal” Republicans—and here I include everyone from House members such as Mike Rogers to governors like Chris Sununu—are motivated by only one thing: Winning power for the Republican party. They are willing to make any compromise if they believe it will increase the chances of a Republican holding power in government.

MAGA Republicans do not care—at all—about control of the government. Their only motivation is to control the Republican party itself. The MAGAs are happy to lose general elections, so long as they can dominate the institution of the party itself. That’s their primary motivation.

Incentives are everything and the dynamic in the House GOP caucus puts us back in Muad'Dib territory.

“Normal Republicans” want the Republican party to win power. They would prefer it if it was their version of the Republican party, but this preference is a secondary factor. The outcome they want to avoid at all costs is Democrats holding governing power.

MAGA Republicans want to control the Republican party itself. They would prefer to also control the government, but the outcome they want to avoid at all costs isn’t Democrats holding governing power—it’s letting “Normal Republicans” run their party.

And that’s why we are where we are.

It raises an interesting point: What if winning isn’t really the goal of the base of the Republican party? What if controlling the party — even if it is a minority party — is what really matters?

Regardless of the reason, it’s obvious — at least right now — that nominating the strongest general election candidate isn’t the priority for Republicans.

It might not matter! Today Trump looks to have an edge — albeit a much more narrow one than Haley — over Biden.

But, man oh man is it a risk. The losing side of their bet is a 2nd term for Joe Biden.