Trump will burn the GOP down before he lets anyone else run as its standard bearer. Niki Haley can't beat Biden without Trump voters and far too many will either write in Trump or stay home if Trump is not the candidate. So take Haley +11 over Biden with a boatload of salt. She can't beat Trump and she can't beat Biden either.
And remember, Nikki Haley has only been exposed to the Republican voters and really not the whole general electorate. By the time her negatives and known her poll numbers (for those who believe in polls)will drop drastically. Bring them on , Nikki Haley, Donald Trump , Ron DeSantis, Biden will beat them all in the general election in 2024 !!
When did Trump ever concede an election? Can you name one time? In order for Trump to support her he would have to admit he lost. IMO, Trump has never been gracious in defeat because he is incapable of admitting defeat.
Trump is at risk of going to prison every time he insults a judge handling one of his cases and every time he tries to intimidate witnesses and every time he tries to poison a jury pool. Yet that never stops him.
Have you listened to Haley‘s interview with Hannity on her foreign policy vis-à-vis international organizations, on immigration etc? Have you ignored other statements she has made, pandering to the Trump base? Put electability aside and think about a leader for this country and it’s not a MAGA mini me in 5 inch heels.
Haley is as cruel and extreme as the rest of MAGA. Stop looking for a reasonable Republican, stop buying what Fox is selling and please don't coast over how radical Republicans now are - They're talking 'vermin' and mass deportation - This is not a horserace. It is an existential moment.
IMHO, the reality is, without Trump, there would not have been a President Biden. If Trump had not won in 2016, Biden would not have been the nominee in 2020, regardless of who had been President from 2016 to 2020. He was not the strongest democratic candidate until democrats boiled down the decision to, who can beat Trump.
As an aside, this might have been a shame, since I sense history will objectively conclude Biden has been relatively one of the more effective Presidents...
So, it should not be a shock Biden might not compare well with some other candidates not named Trump (and as you point out, he is not polling so well against Trump either). Nevertheless, while Trump is the candidate, more voters will eventually come to the realisation they need to elect whoever is running against Trump.
But - I feel Joe would have won if had run in 2016 and there never would have been a - I can't even say it - President Trump. There was definite Clinton fatigue
Del - appreciate your perspective. IMHO, my sense is Hillary Clinton was more popular within the Democratic Party, and Biden would have had trouble gaining traction against her, just as Trump appears to be more popular today in the Republican party today. Further, not sure Biden's heart would have been in the fight, due to his family situation, and this would have held him back as well - it was his personal commitment, as he put it, to save the, "...soul of America..." which powered his campaign, as well as powered himself personally.
When you say, “They make decisions with their hearts,” you make it sound like a good thing. How about, “They make their decisions with their emotions?”
As to MAGA voters, and anyone who votes with their heart/gut, these people have most likely not been introduced to, let alone trained in, critical thinking. Great example is the definition below proposed by Facione. [Profiling critical thinking dispositions. Assessment Update. 5 (2): 1–4,1993]
“Critical thinking has seven key features: being inquisitive and curious, being open-minded to different sides, being able to think systematically, being analytical, being persistent to truth, being confident about critical thinking itself, and lastly, being mature.” Trump and his devoted followers have few to none of these qualities.
I don’t see Haley being able to beat Trump. Trump will go off the rails, burn it all down, if he sees Haley getting anywhere close. So far, Haley has been able to stand above the fray for the most part, once Trump sinks his teeth in her, can she stay above the fray or get down and dirty? We know how that has worked in the past, it doesn’t.
There’s a simple, feasible option on the Republican side that would be a DEVASTATING opponent for Biden/harris: Trump/Haley. It absolutely could happen despite the occasional past dustup between the two (after all, in 2017 Trump was willing to work with Christie and Rick Perry despite their past criticisms of him)
This is a good article but my interpretation would differ.
''My pet theory has long been that Republican base voters — far more than Democratic base voters — make choices with their hearts, not their heads.''
This theory assumes that the voters lead the party and not the other way around. My theory that I have shared many times is that the Republican Party has become a populist party. Normal parties try to win elections at all costs. Populist parties exist solely for the benefit of the leader. In my experience, voters are swayed by leaders. Since January 6th, time and time again the Republican Party has chosen to put Donald Trump first and everything else second. Everyone in the party thinks he is their boss. This is what you get.
Haley is going to be the VP nominee. That will be all that the Mango Menace needs to cruise to a win, nauseating as though that is for me to contemplate.
People are often "prisoners of the moment." Trump looks like a lock to win the nomination. So did HRC before Obama had a surprise result in Iowa. Here, as you pointed out the other day, New Hampshire might look a lot tighter if Christie pulled out. What the polling tells us is (a) Haley is a much stronger general election candidate than Trump or Desantis and (b) Biden is very vulnerable. Will enough sane Rs show up in Iowa or NH to change that dynamic and give Haley a chance? That's an unknown. Will Biden understand at some point that his time may have passed? Joe deserves better. He has done an excellent job. But concerns about his fitness aren't going away. No one thought LBJ would step aside until he did, and he did once he took the early NH result and other polling to heart. Bottom line: the path ahead may appear certain, but history tells us surprises may be in store.
Trump will burn the GOP down before he lets anyone else run as its standard bearer. Niki Haley can't beat Biden without Trump voters and far too many will either write in Trump or stay home if Trump is not the candidate. So take Haley +11 over Biden with a boatload of salt. She can't beat Trump and she can't beat Biden either.
An ocean load of salt me thinks
I stand corrected.
And remember, Nikki Haley has only been exposed to the Republican voters and really not the whole general electorate. By the time her negatives and known her poll numbers (for those who believe in polls)will drop drastically. Bring them on , Nikki Haley, Donald Trump , Ron DeSantis, Biden will beat them all in the general election in 2024 !!
Eh, I think Trump would support her if she promised to pardon him. It would be tepid support but I don’t think he’d burn it down.
When did Trump ever concede an election? Can you name one time? In order for Trump to support her he would have to admit he lost. IMO, Trump has never been gracious in defeat because he is incapable of admitting defeat.
When has he been at risk of going to prison? It’s the kind of thing that clarifies the mind.
Trump is at risk of going to prison every time he insults a judge handling one of his cases and every time he tries to intimidate witnesses and every time he tries to poison a jury pool. Yet that never stops him.
Have you listened to Haley‘s interview with Hannity on her foreign policy vis-à-vis international organizations, on immigration etc? Have you ignored other statements she has made, pandering to the Trump base? Put electability aside and think about a leader for this country and it’s not a MAGA mini me in 5 inch heels.
And to think I was just starting to like her.... 😥
Haley is as cruel and extreme as the rest of MAGA. Stop looking for a reasonable Republican, stop buying what Fox is selling and please don't coast over how radical Republicans now are - They're talking 'vermin' and mass deportation - This is not a horserace. It is an existential moment.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/05/us-bashes-un-critiquing-trump-family-separation-policy
IMHO, the reality is, without Trump, there would not have been a President Biden. If Trump had not won in 2016, Biden would not have been the nominee in 2020, regardless of who had been President from 2016 to 2020. He was not the strongest democratic candidate until democrats boiled down the decision to, who can beat Trump.
As an aside, this might have been a shame, since I sense history will objectively conclude Biden has been relatively one of the more effective Presidents...
So, it should not be a shock Biden might not compare well with some other candidates not named Trump (and as you point out, he is not polling so well against Trump either). Nevertheless, while Trump is the candidate, more voters will eventually come to the realisation they need to elect whoever is running against Trump.
But - I feel Joe would have won if had run in 2016 and there never would have been a - I can't even say it - President Trump. There was definite Clinton fatigue
Del - appreciate your perspective. IMHO, my sense is Hillary Clinton was more popular within the Democratic Party, and Biden would have had trouble gaining traction against her, just as Trump appears to be more popular today in the Republican party today. Further, not sure Biden's heart would have been in the fight, due to his family situation, and this would have held him back as well - it was his personal commitment, as he put it, to save the, "...soul of America..." which powered his campaign, as well as powered himself personally.
Mike - I agree he had a lot going on at that time. Too many what if's
When you say, “They make decisions with their hearts,” you make it sound like a good thing. How about, “They make their decisions with their emotions?”
How about, “They make decisions with areas below the belt, instead of above the shoulders.”
As to MAGA voters, and anyone who votes with their heart/gut, these people have most likely not been introduced to, let alone trained in, critical thinking. Great example is the definition below proposed by Facione. [Profiling critical thinking dispositions. Assessment Update. 5 (2): 1–4,1993]
“Critical thinking has seven key features: being inquisitive and curious, being open-minded to different sides, being able to think systematically, being analytical, being persistent to truth, being confident about critical thinking itself, and lastly, being mature.” Trump and his devoted followers have few to none of these qualities.
I don’t see Haley being able to beat Trump. Trump will go off the rails, burn it all down, if he sees Haley getting anywhere close. So far, Haley has been able to stand above the fray for the most part, once Trump sinks his teeth in her, can she stay above the fray or get down and dirty? We know how that has worked in the past, it doesn’t.
There’s a simple, feasible option on the Republican side that would be a DEVASTATING opponent for Biden/harris: Trump/Haley. It absolutely could happen despite the occasional past dustup between the two (after all, in 2017 Trump was willing to work with Christie and Rick Perry despite their past criticisms of him)
This is a good article but my interpretation would differ.
''My pet theory has long been that Republican base voters — far more than Democratic base voters — make choices with their hearts, not their heads.''
This theory assumes that the voters lead the party and not the other way around. My theory that I have shared many times is that the Republican Party has become a populist party. Normal parties try to win elections at all costs. Populist parties exist solely for the benefit of the leader. In my experience, voters are swayed by leaders. Since January 6th, time and time again the Republican Party has chosen to put Donald Trump first and everything else second. Everyone in the party thinks he is their boss. This is what you get.
This is the type of writing from Chris that I like.
Maybe its time for me to start donating to her campaign, especially since Will Hurd dropped out. Thank you for the reminder.
Haley is going to be the VP nominee. That will be all that the Mango Menace needs to cruise to a win, nauseating as though that is for me to contemplate.
People are often "prisoners of the moment." Trump looks like a lock to win the nomination. So did HRC before Obama had a surprise result in Iowa. Here, as you pointed out the other day, New Hampshire might look a lot tighter if Christie pulled out. What the polling tells us is (a) Haley is a much stronger general election candidate than Trump or Desantis and (b) Biden is very vulnerable. Will enough sane Rs show up in Iowa or NH to change that dynamic and give Haley a chance? That's an unknown. Will Biden understand at some point that his time may have passed? Joe deserves better. He has done an excellent job. But concerns about his fitness aren't going away. No one thought LBJ would step aside until he did, and he did once he took the early NH result and other polling to heart. Bottom line: the path ahead may appear certain, but history tells us surprises may be in store.