Why the conventional wisdom on Ron DeSantis might be wrong

On electability.

(Donald Trump, left, and Ron DeSantis)

Conventional wisdom about the 2024 Republican race goes like this: Donald Trump is the most likely to win the primary but the least electable candidate in the general election.

Someone like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the argument goes, might struggle to beat Trump in a primary but would be a much stronger challenger to President Joe Biden next fall.¹

But, what if that supposition is simply wrong? New data from a Wall Street Journal national poll suggests it just might be.

Here’s the key paragraphs from the story on the poll results:

The poll also shows potential general-election vulnerabilities for Mr. DeSantis, who has made electability a central pitch to voters, as he seeks to rack up conservative policy victories during the Florida legislative session. 

A six-week abortion ban, which he signed into law last week, is overwhelmingly popular with Republicans but opposed by 53% of voters overall, including 64% of white suburban women, a coveted swing group. By a two-to-one margin, voters oppose allowing people to carry a concealed handgun without a permit, another measure Mr. DeSantis signed into law.

What those paragraphs suggest is that the things that DeSantis is doing in Florida — especially on abortion and guns — may well endear him to Republican primary voters but also appear to be alienating him from general election voters he needs to beat Biden.

Which is, well, interesting. As is the fact that Trump and DeSantis are running roughly the same against Biden at the minute.

Here’s the Real Clear Politics polling average of Trump vs Biden:

And here’s DeSantis vs Biden:

Pretty, pretty similar, right?

Especially when you consider that, to the extent DeSantis has made an argument against Trump to this point, it’s been about electability.

“I’m happy to say, you know, in my case, not only did we win re-election, we won with the highest percentage of the vote that any Republican governor candidate has in the history of the state of Florida,” DeSantis said in late January when asked about Trump’s mounting attacks on him.

“You can call me whatever you want,” DeSantis said in an interview last month with Piers Morgan in the New York Post. “Just as long as you also call me a winner.”

And, on the campaign trail in New Hampshire earlier this month, DeSantis said that “there is no substitute for victory,” and, according to the New York Times, “denounced the ‘culture of losing’ that he said had engulfed Republicans in recent years, swiping at Donald J. Trump in all but name.”

As that same Times story noted:

Republican frustration with years of ballot box disappointments to urge a new face for the party in 2024. Republicans lost with Mr. Trump, the argument goes, but can win with Mr. DeSantis.

But there are growing questions about Mr. DeSantis’s own ability to win over the independent and suburban voters who delivered the White House to President Biden, and whether the hard-line stances the governor has taken, including on abortion, will repel the very voters he promises to win back.

Now, it’s worth noting a whole bunch of caveats here:

1. General election polling done before one of the candidates (DeSantis) is even in the race is rightly viewed with some skepticism.

2. DeSantis’ favorability numbers (43% favorable/45% unfavorable) among the general electorate are still much better than Trump’s (39% favorable/57% unfavorable)

3. When Republicans were asked who has the best chance of beating Biden in 2024, 41% named DeSantis while 31% chose Trump.

All of that stuff matters. And all of it should be thrown into the equation when we are trying to understand what DeSantis’ potential appeal is to a general election swing voter.

But it’s also hard to ignore this fact: Winners win. And right now at least, DeSantis is losing — in a major way — in the Republican presidential race.

Compare where DeSantis stood vis a vis Trump in December versus where he stands now in WSJ polling:

OUCH.

And Trump is doing everything he can to take the shine off of DeSantis — and the idea of him as the most electable candidate in the Republican field.\

After DeSantis — pettily — suggested that he could put a state prison next to Disney World or start as state-sponsored amusement park this week, Trump jumped in to bash the Florida governor as, well, a loser.

What’s fascinating about this whole electability debate is that it’s not entirely clear that Republicans are — or will — prioritize a candidate who can win in 2024.

In fact, there’s data to suggest that electability isn’t a major priority for Republican voters.

In a March CNN national poll, 59% of Republicans said they preferred a candidate who agreed with them on major issues while 41% said they would opt for the candidate with the best chance of beating Biden in the fall of 2024.

So, maybe electability won’t matter after all?

At the moment, DeSantis’ strength — such as it is — is that he wins. He’s a winner. The more Trump can even that playing field — whether through attacks or polls — the better his chances become of being the nominee.

1. I have put forward this argument in the past — noting my belief that Trump was the weakest general election candidate for Republicans, largely due to his dismal numbers among independents.