78 Comments

Oooof. Not what I wanted to read first thing in the morning. But facts are inconvenient things… just because I don’t like them doesn’t mean they aren’t true. My takeaway is that this country is far sicker than I imagined. We’re in deep trouble, even if Kamala pulls through.

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Tough to read, but I appreciate the honesty and directness from both of you. Thanks, Chris!

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Which is why my bottom line is retaking the House as a check against Trump. should he win. Harris helps the Democrats with pick-up opportunities and swing districts in NY and California, Harris will run strong in both states.

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Taking the House would be a positive step. But just remember that the Supreme Court has ruled that Trump can do anything he wants to as President - including internment camps for political opponents. All the House can do is pass Articles of Impeachment. And we’ve twice seen the courageous actions by the Senate in holding Trump accountable…. Either Kamala wins or Fascist Amerika.

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Yes, Diablo Donald still has the SC in his pocket.

Everyone rights off 3rd party, but blue & red like him

(not a fan of Beck or platform, but...):

https://rumble.com/v587i9p-rfk-jr.-the-revolution-is-going-to-happen.html

Lie until you die (why I have become more disenchanted with ol' blue):

https://open.substack.com/pub/arabellasmith/p/democracy-and-truth?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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(Writes off-couldn't correct misspell!)

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I think that you are all underestimating younger voters. They will be voting and voting Democratic. I feel that the polls do not reflect their numbers.

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In spite of the HUGE smear campaign, a lot of kids like RFK jr.

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The youth vote traditionally has the worst turnout. I hope we don’t have to rely on it

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Radical idea: Maybe national politics is not the cure for what ails us? Let's try donating more time and money to charities and causes rather than political campaigns.

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I think you are on to something. Dedicating effort to improving society can only be a good thing.

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My sentiments exactly. But we are in a time w/the fascist "2025" & threat of tRump is beyond the realms of scary.

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I will gladly vote for an imperfect candidate that is striving for a better America in which everyone has equal rights, bodily autonomy, concern for the ecology, and where corporations don't enslave their workers while rewarding themselves and their shareholders. Even more so when the alternative is an authoritative dictatorship in which all women become second-class citizens, black (or is it pronounced "college"?) people are reduced to being counted as two-thirds of a person, law and order is tossed out the window due to a corrupt Supreme Court, and undesirables are rounded-up and placed in modern-day concentration camps.

Chris, up until now I've defended you against readers who claim that you are nothing more then a shill for Trump. But with today's post it's become clear to me that you have a pro-Trump bias - whether this is deliberate or subconscious. You'll jump at any opportunity to boost Trump's standing. Perhaps all of this is part of your audition tape for a role in the White House Communications Office next January.

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Just because you don’t like the facts doesn’t mean they aren’t true. I think Chris goes way out of his way not to project any bias in his content. I think that what you may be confusing bias with disappointment in what you are reading.

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I'm not arguing that the facts aren't true. And many times in the past I'v entered pretty much the same exact comment you have. "Just because you don't like what you're reading doesn't mean it isn't true".

My point is that Chris will go out of his was (deliberately or subconsciously) to continuously drill home the point that Trump is leading in the polls. Do you ever see any posts from Chris discussing Trump's age, diminishing mental capacity, derailed train of thought (batteries, sharks and sinking boats / having college football coaches run the military / whales killed by windmills / and there's an encyclopedia full of more examples), his sexist mentality, his misogyny, his bigotry, the dangers of Project 2025, etc? But if Trump is leading in a poll or has more routes to 270 EV than Harris, he's trumpeting that in a post.

We're less than a week since Biden's announcement. Polls in general mean shit, and the polls from the last few days, as well as polls for the next two weeks or so are meaningless.

Chris is smart enough to know that, and by wasting time writing columns that focus on these polls is a lazy way to fill space. Chris is far more talented than that so it is disappointing when he takes the easy way out by highlighting information that is pro-Trump.

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Have you never read Chris’ lines columns? They’re all about the word salads at TFG’s rallies and interviews.

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founding

I figured him (Chris Cilliza) out a long time ago. He's a stealthEd Trump activist. Nothing is wrong with that but just be honest and open with your subscribers so that they don't keep believing that they're reading an objective newsletter when they are in fact not. As the election draws nearer, I guess people will realize the truth that Chris is not an objective and independent person as he claims to be

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You could not be more misinformed. Chris certainly not a fan of President Trump. I’ve been impressed how impartial his column has been written.

Great insights Chris!

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Good piece Chris and Damon!

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author

TY!

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The conclusions may be accurate, but I'd find more convincing without the prejudicial comments such as that she hasn't exactly proven herself as VP. Perhaps one of you could educate us with details of a past VP who has had a stellar performance review. This is where your biases -I'm sure not conscious - come through. If you spent more time focusing on the abominable and flat-out crazy comments and behavior of Mr. Trump - as president and now- perhaps readers would be better served. This cannot and should not be a balanced comparison of 2 candidates as if both are normal and acceptable. That is a dangerous approach.

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I appreciate all that you both say, but I think you’re leaving out a key factor—the abortion/birth control issue. That was galvanizing in 22 and can be again, especially with Kamala being able to articulate the harms so eloquently. I hold out that there’s hidden women (and men) vote over that issue.

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I believe Trump will have self-destructed by November. She will goad him, bait him and drive him crazy. I can see a win by Harris with women and young voters bringing her over the top. Trump was doing well because of Biden. Now many of the voters who didn’t want Biden will be more open to a younger candidate. I don’t underestimate the racism or misogyny, but I think even more people will be repulsed by it. And if there is a debate, that will be the end of Trump.

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With the concerted smear campaign, blocking of ballot access & the refusal to let him debate, 10 million (?) watched RFK jr join the tRump & Biden Prez debate, on his own debate platform airing simultaneously, and about the same number watching, felt he won the debate. Perhaps we shouldn't underestimate the power of this 3rd party.

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No we shouldn’t, but I believe he will take more votes from Trump. Latest polling shows that Harris does better with RFK Jr. on the ballot.

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I've heard it both ways, that Rfk jr takes votes from both sides. I've also heard that he is the only one who can beat Deranged Donald? Polls also bet on Hillary in 2016.

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Kamala Harris will be a different candidate than she was in 2020. I am sure that there were hard lessons learned. I also think that the majority of Americans do not see reality in Donald J Trump’s apocalyptic vision of our nation, and they don’t see a blood bath of retribution and the imposition of. Christian theocracy as the answer to the problems that we do have. The addition of JD Vance to the Trump ticket is definitely a loser move with regard to enormous swaths of our population, and if he sticks with ideas like excoriatingy childless folks as somehow being less worthy than others, then it adds a whole new dimension to his anti-woman, anti-LGBTQ, anti non caucasian/ immigrant malarkey. The choice of a running mate will indeed be important to the Harris campaign, I trust that she’ll choose wisely from the slate of several good options before her. Trump can(and hopefully will ) be beaten.

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founding

"We need to shake things up and try something else for a while. And Trump’s the only one ballsy enough to do it."

Excuse me, but we tried that out. It was a chaotic and utter failure.

All Kamala needs to do is remind folks of the 4 year shit-show we had.

BTW, I do agree trumpf can still win. But it won't be any better, and probably far worse, than the last time. Not that the country wasn't warned.

But, like Hillary's emails, you know Kamala laughs.

Chris, how come you haven't addressed the elephant in the room. My social media feed has been bombarded with hundreds of really nasty memes and threads about Kamala and sex. I truly think it is amazing that the group that brought us our first avowed "pussy grabbing and proud of it" president is now zeroing in on the fact that apparently Kamala Harris has had sex.

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We had a 4-year shit show… and the odds favor a repeat. How do you explain that??

IMO there’s general agreement that we have a broken country that doesn’t work for the overwhelming majority of people. The MAGA meatheads are so angry about this that they are literally willing to burn the country down and start all over. I think the word is Nihilism.

So the Trump Nazis look at the prospect of another 4 years of chaos with gleeful anticipation. I think the only way of heading this off is to offer a radical but constructive alternative to Fascist Amerika.

After all, who wants to drink tepid water…?

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How do we explain Trump’s strong showing after 4 years of chaos and incompetence? The answer is simple and sad. We live in a woefully ill-informed country. Just today, there is more data showing the economy is strong. But a large % of Americans think we’re in a recession. They also think unemployment is high, when it’s near record lows; oil production is down, when it’s at all time highs; the stock market is down, when it’s breaking records. Most people don’t consume real news and/or live in a bubble of self-curated biased info. Check right wing social media and you’ll see plenty of examples

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It's a damning statement on America in 2024. That we would even consider re-electing Trump may be the inescapable sign that this country as currently constituted is no longer capable of functioning. I honestly can't think of a single, critical American institution that isn't broken.

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I don't like Trump, but I will defend Trump voters. ~75M voters voted for Trump in 2020. They represent a complex coalition of voters and it's not fair to assume the loudest and most obnoxious voices represent all 75M. I know and respect many Trump voters and - even though I disagree with them on a lot of issues - I understand their point of view on America First ideology. I also know and respect many liberals that are low-information voters with obvious blindspots. We are all playing right into the hands of politicians and making life easy for them by being hyper-partisan and intolerant.

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I didn’t say Trump’s voters are bad people. I bemoaned the general ignorance of our fellow citizens, and I argued that it contributes to Trump’s standing in the polls. The greatest trick Trump and the GOP ever played was winning over rural and working class voters with social grievances and fears of immigration while doing nothing for them. As for Dems, they are always bad about communicating their successes. Biden and the Fed have done a great job steering out of the Covid shutdown, but between the Ds failure to tout success, Trump’s lies, and the general lack of credible news consumption, we have people making decisions based on “feelings” that are at variance with reality.

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But feelings get votes whether we like it or not (on both sides). I know Trump voters that are convinced that deporting illegal immigrants, cutting-off aid to foreign countries, and "winning" vs China and other strong economies that "owe us big-time" will restore the greatness of the rural and exurb communities of middle America that are getting left behind. Will it? I mean, I have no idea, but my guess would be no?

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I’m not sure you read my earlier comments in this thread. The gravamen of my argument is that people have “feelings” about the economy that are contradicted by actual data. That’s different from thoughts about how a prospective policy might work. As I said, the Ds have failed to communicate the actual story re the economy, and many people don’t stay abreast on their own. IMO, the answer is not to condescend to swing voters by acting as if “feelings” at variance with facts are valid. The better answer is to get the message re successes out while acknowledging legitimate challenges and concerns. Thanks for the exchange.

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I’m not sure that ignorance is the answer. For example, don’t confuse the stock market with the economy. For most families the economy sucks. Either they’ve been laid off, terrified they will be laid off, or are struggling with the cost of rent and food. This is the real economy, and many people are hurting.

Meanwhile corporations are racking up record profits, CEOs are getting even more filthy rich, and the statistics indicate a robust economy.

So voters aren’t without information. They have plenty of evidence to back up their assessment of the economy. They just aren’t tracking GDP. They are tracking their checking account and credit card balances.

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You say not to confuse the stock market with the economy, which is fair enough, but the fact is that unemployment is very low, and inflation is not quite yet where the Fed wants it but has come way down and is closing in on the 2% target. All of this, remarkably, has happened without a recession. That's the "real economy." To say the economy "sucks" presently is to ignore what it's like when it truly sucks, e.g., 8% unemployment or 8% inflation, not 4% and 3%. And "record profits" may be true for some companies but definitely is not true for many others.

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I’m just saying that each person’s assessment of the economy is based on their own personal experience - not statistics and GDP rates. So the fact that unemployment is relatively low and inflation has improved is irrelevant if you are having problem paying the rent and putting food on the table. People are not - and are never going to be - rational beings.

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If you look at opinions on the econony, how well it's doing, they depend significantly on who's in power and what one's own political alignment is, not really a reasoned assessment. So if Trump should be re-elected, with no other change, his supporters would suddenly think that same economy was fantastic. While there are always those who struggle, there is nothing in the economy over the past couple of years that justifies the dissatisfaction. It's difficult to fix an imagined problem. Disinformation, ignorance and group-think only add to the disconnect.

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You are correct that the stock market is not the economy, but ignorance is pervasive and is a large part of the answer. Yes, many are hurting b/c of inflation, but working people always struggle, and they are now voting in record numbers for the Rs, who do nothing for them. My comments were based on data. The data, shows, among other things, that most people say they're doing ok but think things are bad overall. Check the May polling by Harris/ The Guardian, which showed 56% thinking the economy was in recession, which it's been steadily growing; about 50% thinking the market was down, which it's at record levels; 50% think unemployment is near a 50 year high, when it's near record lows; 7 in 10 thinking inflation is rising , when it's falling. So yes, voters are without accurate information and that's because they don't read real news .

You can also check the CBS news post of May 24 re all the above stats

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I dunno. I wouldn’t confuse information with statistics. It’s all based on how you are personally impacted.

My dad had a saying: “A Recession is when your neighbor loses their job. A Depression is when you lose your job.” No mention of GDP… just something to consider.

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Clever saying but the stats repeatedly show high levels of ignorance. And it’s undeniable that levels of credible news consumption are very low. Not sure what you mean by your reference to gdp, which has had steady growth

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Rocket Master Man,

In response to your last point, Chris won't mention, discuss, or write about anything that's negative towards Trump - age, mental capacity (or lack thereof), misogyny, bigotry, etc. Whether this is deliberate or done subconsciously I don't know, but Chris never misses an opportunity to drill home the point that Trump is leading in the polls.

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I hope you guys get paid by the word ... good God this is long. For sure you are full of yourselves.

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I think President Biden called it right. Its up to us to defeat Trump. Kamala can't do it on her own. She needs a very strong grassroots movement supporting her. So far I feel reluctant to get involved beyond sending the occasional small donation. I do have some postcards sitting here that I have not yet gotten around to writing.

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Good discussion. But I watched the VPs speech to the AFT in Houston today and it, and she, was very good. Very powerful. I would caution against assuming she hasn’t learned much since 2019. And the Democratic A-team and apparatus will be with her this time.

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Thought provoking article. My two cents. She needs to stake out moderate positions and forget defending her 2019 positions and performance. And she needs to attack Trump and Vance hard everyday. Keep it about him. Refuse to let him make it about her.

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