Winners and losers from the New Hampshire primary

It's over, folks.

(Donald Trump, winner)

The New Hampshire primary is in the books — and it’s another Donald Trump win.

Trump took 55% to Nikki Haley’s 43% — a victory that was slightly lower than the tracking polls on the race but still convincing, especially when you consider his 30 point victory in the Iowa caucuses eight days ago and the fact that the rest of the primary calendar seems to work (heavily) in his favor.

Joe Biden also won, convincingly, despite the fact that he needed to run as a write-in candidate. (Biden bypassed New Hampshire to put South Carolina first in the nation on the Democratic side.)

Below my winners and losers from the night that was.

WINNERS

Donald Trump: Don’t believe the hype of people who are trying to suggest that his New Hampshire win was somehow unimpressive. He is the first Republican in the history of the modern primary process to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. The first! Like, come on. Also, the rest of the primary calendar is VERY good for Trump — starting with South Carolina and then moving into the Super Tuesday states in early March. He will be the nominee. It’s only a question of when.

Joe Biden: Had Dean Phillips got anywhere close to the 40%+ his team was predicting before the New Hampshire primary, today would have been rife with stories about the incumbent’s weakness — and LOUD whispers that he should drop out for the good of the party. Biden broke 50% with a write-in campaign — and Phillips got under 20% of the vote. Not perfect but plenty strong to avoid a slew of negative stories.

Independents: New Hampshire is famous for its political independence — and independents. (The state license plate literally says “Live Free or Die.”). Unaffiliated voters came out in BIG numbers on Tuesday, making up 43% of the overall electorate — a higher number than I thought it would be. They went overwhelmingly for Haley — 60%-38%. While it wasn’t enough to put her over the top on Trump, it was a warning for the coming general election: The former president has an independents problem.

South Carolina TV stations: Had Trump won by 25 or 30 points, I am not sure that Nikki Haley pledges to keep going through the Feb. 24 Palmetto State primary. But, her loss was narrow enough that she’s already up on TV in South Carolina — with a $4 million buy. And Trump will respond in kind. Assuming Haley stays in for the next month (possible if not a guarantee), it will be a windfall for local TV stations as the two candidates battle it out over the airwaves.

LOSERS

Nikki Haley: Look, I said MANY times in this space that she had to win New Hampshire to have a chance at the nomination. And I stand by that. I see a path where Haley stays in the race for another month (I guess) but I still don’t see a path where she can be the Republican nominee. Haley’s speech was a little too optimistic for me — like, she did lose, again. I still think Haley is a very talented candidate but if she can’t win Republican voters — Trump beat her by 49 points among GOPers in New Hampshire — she can’t win.

Donald Trump’s victory speech: Ugh. Trump spent the majority of his speech running down Haley and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu in often-personal terms. (He talked about how Haley’s dress wasn’t fancy. Like, what?) For the people — and, yes, there are still some of them — who wondered if Trump was turning over a new leaf after his semi-gracious victory speech in Iowa, this was a reminder that Trump is Trump: There is no pivot, no new leaf, no version 2.0. He will always be exactly what he is: A vengeful bully whose first instinct is retribution.

Chris Sununu: Make no mistake: When the New Hampshire governor endorsed Haley, he didn’t do it so that she could come in second place. I saw a few New Hampshire Republicans patting Sununu on the back last night — virtually — for how well Haley did. But, just to belabor the point, she didn’t win! She lost by double digits! In a state and with an electorate that was perfectly suited to her and her message of change. And given Trump’s popularity among New Hampshire Republicans, Sununu is probably not electable in the state — at least for a while.

Tim Scott: Dude, I know you want to be vice president but…man. Scott stood beaming behind Trump as the former president ran down the woman who appointed him to the Senate. “You must really hate her,” Trump said to Scott of Haley. Oomph. Trump requires debasement as a measure of loyalty so, I guess on that front, Scott had a good night.

Dean Phillips: Time to go. The Minnesota Congressman got less than 1 in every 5 votes against a candidate who was not on the ballot. If ever there was a place where Phillips could have hoped to make a statement against Biden, New Hampshire was it. And, um, it didn’t work out. Phillips is independently wealthy so I suppose he can stay in the race for as long as he wants. But just because he can doesn’t mean he should.