Yes, the 2024 election is going to be *very* close
Tight as a tick.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia released its first look at the 2024 presidential battleground on Thursday.
Here’s their map:
That’s 260 electoral votes leaning or likely for Democrats, 235 leaning or likely for Republicans and just 43 — spread over four states — that are toss ups in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia.
The simplest takeaway here? The 2024 election is likely to be very close — and decided by a small number of voters in a small number of swing states.
Now, before I go any further it’s worth noting here that a) the election is in just under 500 days b) we don’t know the identities of the nominees yet and c) we have no idea what the national political climate will look like.
So, cum gran salis with all of these predictions.
But, still. I think the map is a very good place to start when we talk about the 2024 race — and the high likelihood that the race is going to be very close.
Remember that in 2020, Joe Biden won the electoral college 306 to 232 over Donald Trump. Which was a somewhat convincing victory!
But also remember that a number of states were extremely close — and had a few flipped to Trump he might have wound up on top.
Biden won four states by a single point or less: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (Trump won North Carolina by a single point.) Had Trump won all four he would have taken 288 electoral votes and won the election.
Trump could, in fact, been elected if he has only won only three of those states: Pennsylvania, Georgia and either Wisconsin or Arizona.
Polling is scarce in individual states at this point but you have to assume that all four states are likely to be very close again in 2024.
A quick look at each state shows why:
Arizona: Biden won by less than 11,000 votes out of more than 3.2 million cast. The state has an independent and a Democratic Senator. The governor is a Democrat. In 2022, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) won with 51% of the vote.
Georgia: Biden won by 12,000 votes out of almost 5 million cast in 2020. The state has two Democratic Senators. The governor is a Republican. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) was reelected in a runoff with Herschel Walker, winning with 51%.
Pennsylvania: Biden won by 80,000 votes out of almost 7 million cast. The state has two Democratic Senators. The governor is a Democrat. In 2022, Sen. John Fetterman flipped a Republican seat to Democratic, winning with — stop me if you’ve heard this before — 51% of the vote.
Wisconsin: Biden won by 20,000 votes our of more than 3.2 million cast. The state has one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator. The governor is a Democrat. In 2022, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won reelection with 50.5% of the vote.
National polling also affirms the likelihood of a close race — presuming the nominees are Trump and Biden.
At the moment, Real Clear Politics gives Trump an average lead of under 1 point in its polling average.
All of this is to say that in spite of everything happening with Trump — false election claims, January 6, two indictments with the possibility of more on the way — he remains a decidedly viable general election candidate.
I have written before that I think — and I still believe — that Trump is the weakest of the potential Republican candidates because of his problems with independents, women and suburban voters.
But I think the closeness — of both polls and early electoral college prognostications — highlight an under-told story of this election: The weakness of Biden.
Biden’s approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s. His approval on the economy — despite his speech touting “Bidenomics” Wednesday — are even worse. Large majorities of the public don’t want him to run again and believe he is too old to serve in the office he is seeking.
In short: Biden is a very weak Democratic nominee. In fact, I had one longtime Democratic consultant tell me recently that his side is praying Trump wins because they don’t believe that Biden can beat any — any — of the other potential Republican nominees including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
This is a Republican nomination worth having. Even if Trump is the nominee we are likely looking at a nip and tuck race in the electoral college, with a very small number of swing states — and swing voters in those swing states — deciding the outcome.
I disagree that Biden is a particularly weak candidate. I think that almost no other Democrat could have won in 2020, and that probably no other Democrat can win in 2024. Why? Because he’s the only person the Dems could nominate that doesn’t come with an easy tripwire on them that gets people in the middle to say, “I don’t like that person.” Give the GOP almost any hook to drive wedges, and they can get just a few people in the persuadable/ambivalent middle who either would normally lean Republican unless it’s Trump against Obviously Safe Democrat, and/or just don’t care that badly, to either stay home or actually vote Republican... and then the Republican wins.
Biden won _because_ he was the most congenial, least antagonistic, somewhat dippy avuncular figure that didn’t trigger anybody. Now compare to anyone else. Bernie? “That guy’s a crazy socialist.” Warren? “She’s too liberal, and I just don’t know why but there’s something too naggy about her...” (Read: lots of voters just won’t vote for a woman and will choose their code words for why as they go.) Kamala: black, plus woman. Pete? Gay white rural guy who’s going to trigger the LGBTQ-uncomfortables as well as fail to draw voters of color for a multitude of reasons. AOC? The cross section of “woman,” “person of color,” and “socialist” pretty much checks all the boxes.
Now put that together with the likely narrative of “Biden drops out because he’s a failed president” and the inevitable corollary of “[insert other Dem nominee here] is running for failed Joe Biden’s second term,” and stir.
Don’t get me wrong. I *wish* we didn’t live in a country where being the most inoffensive white guy wasn’t what a Democrat had to do to win a presidential election. I am merely observing, on the most cynical level, what it actually takes. The Dems need their entire coalition to show up in order to win. The GOP only needs their base to show up plus just enough ambivalents in the middle to get squicked by the other guy, and they are cubic light years ahead of the Dems at how to convince voters in the center why they should hate the other guy at least much as theirs. Trump is the weird perfect storm of a pig even they can’t put enough lipstick on... but that doesn’t mean it’s a layup.
The Dems simply have very little margin for error, and I don’t know if I see anybody on their bench who is going to be able to do this better than Biden. The best middle ground I could see here is, “Biden is the worst possible Democratic candidate, except for literally every possible alternative with national name recognition.”
I am so looking forward to the day that the electoral college is nullified or at least neutered. It shouldn’t be this way. 3 million and 7 million national vote margins should mean something, not our kafkaesque 50 state elections approach.