I disagree that Biden is a particularly weak candidate. I think that almost no other Democrat could have won in 2020, and that probably no other Democrat can win in 2024. Why? Because he’s the only person the Dems could nominate that doesn’t come with an easy tripwire on them that gets people in the middle to say, “I don’t like that person.” Give the GOP almost any hook to drive wedges, and they can get just a few people in the persuadable/ambivalent middle who either would normally lean Republican unless it’s Trump against Obviously Safe Democrat, and/or just don’t care that badly, to either stay home or actually vote Republican... and then the Republican wins.
Biden won _because_ he was the most congenial, least antagonistic, somewhat dippy avuncular figure that didn’t trigger anybody. Now compare to anyone else. Bernie? “That guy’s a crazy socialist.” Warren? “She’s too liberal, and I just don’t know why but there’s something too naggy about her...” (Read: lots of voters just won’t vote for a woman and will choose their code words for why as they go.) Kamala: black, plus woman. Pete? Gay white rural guy who’s going to trigger the LGBTQ-uncomfortables as well as fail to draw voters of color for a multitude of reasons. AOC? The cross section of “woman,” “person of color,” and “socialist” pretty much checks all the boxes.
Now put that together with the likely narrative of “Biden drops out because he’s a failed president” and the inevitable corollary of “[insert other Dem nominee here] is running for failed Joe Biden’s second term,” and stir.
Don’t get me wrong. I *wish* we didn’t live in a country where being the most inoffensive white guy wasn’t what a Democrat had to do to win a presidential election. I am merely observing, on the most cynical level, what it actually takes. The Dems need their entire coalition to show up in order to win. The GOP only needs their base to show up plus just enough ambivalents in the middle to get squicked by the other guy, and they are cubic light years ahead of the Dems at how to convince voters in the center why they should hate the other guy at least much as theirs. Trump is the weird perfect storm of a pig even they can’t put enough lipstick on... but that doesn’t mean it’s a layup.
The Dems simply have very little margin for error, and I don’t know if I see anybody on their bench who is going to be able to do this better than Biden. The best middle ground I could see here is, “Biden is the worst possible Democratic candidate, except for literally every possible alternative with national name recognition.”
I am so looking forward to the day that the electoral college is nullified or at least neutered. It shouldn’t be this way. 3 million and 7 million national vote margins should mean something, not our kafkaesque 50 state elections approach.
2024 is still a long time from now to start predicting what will happen. The Democrats are very optimistic and rightly so based on the achievements of Joe Biden so far. Nothing should dampen their optimism.
Unfortunately, we get suckered into polling and yet, it has been wrong in the recent past. With that being said, it’s a real tough thing to read under the circumstances. I don’t want to see close, nail biter, no room for error, etc. etc.. I know it’s way early and anything could happen. Deep down, many people want what is considered dinner table issues to be important and yet, with all of Trumps past and present, they eat it all up. They see him as their savior and all the red meat, the more the better. If the GOP had a sane nominee, I would be disappointed if Biden lost but could live with it. Always a winner and loser. Our side wins sometimes, the other side wins sometimes. So much more is at stake now. It’s our democracy, it’s what the United States of America is all about.
Has Real Clear Politics fixed or adjusted its polling average model? In the 2022 cycle RCP overweighted its averages by including low quality Republican leaning pollsters. Further they used polls from inconsistent time frames to favor Republican candidates. Many pundits used these averages to push the “red wave” narrative that never materialized. G. Elliot Morris and other data analysts called out RCP over this.
Not to my knowledge. I think the best thing to do with RCP polling averages is see them as a broad indicator. Like, the race is close right now. I don;'t known that Trump is ahead or behind. But it's close.
. The last time I checked it was Joe Biden in the White House and not Trump. Also in Georgia RCP said Walker was going to win the Senate racet as well as in Pennsylvania, they predicted Republicans would win the senate race in 2020. We all know how all that turned out. I guess people can believe the polls that align with your wishes but the final poll l is the election. Remember 2022 so called Republicans' Red wave that became a mirage instead
RCP might well be going a bit too hard to try to correct their polling after 2016’s poll aggregators said Hillary was prohibitively likely to win. 2020 represented a bit of a polling miss at the end, but not by as much as RCP evidently had it.
Any polling averages that include Rasmussen are just not worth looking at. And some days I wonder if Chris is living in the same country as I am living in. Full employment! Record low unemployment! Most of the people who decry the economy acknowledge that their situation is just fine, thanks very much. Biden put together, and has kept together, the essential pro-Ukraine coalition. The administration brilliantly managed last weekend's Russia crisis. C'mon, Chris. You can do better analysis than this...and it is time to start. Chris somehow talks about how weak Biden is but never seems to mention how strong the country is these days.
Wayne, I am writing off of polls and data. You can feel free to disagree with me but the reality of polling -- NBC, CNN and others -- is that Biden is in the low 40s in job approval...and even lower than that on the economy. I am sorry if you disagree but those are the facts.
And I'll say it again: "C'mon, Chris. You can do better analysis than this." Writing something about the RCP averages is too simplistic for someone who can do better analysis. We all know what the RCP averages show. It's horse race stuff and some of us would prefer columns that make us think about WHY those polls show those numbers when, in fact, the country is being managed very well right now.
Chris - would it be worth looking into how much of the Republican strength in the polling is driven by an apparent myth about the economy? It seems deep down, a great number of voters will vote based upon how they feel the economy is doing, and how the economy is impacting their lives, regardless of or in spite of who is the candidate. And the myth is, the Republicans will better manage the economy, will reduce spending, move toward a more balanced budget, and the Democrats will do nothing but tax and spend. Yet, for a number of past administrations, the economy has performed poorly under Republican administrations, and Democratic administrations have managed comparatively more wisely, reducing the deficit, improving the economy and creating more jobs. Yet, if you ask most voters, which party will be more beneficial for the economy, the majority will say the Republicans. Why does this myth perpetuate when most objective facts do not support it?
It's such a good point, Mike -- and I think points to the fact that so much of politics is perception vs reality. Biden is going to make the case that his policies have lowered inflation, lowered unemployment, brought down gas prices etc. But man does he start from a deficit. Basically a third of Americans think he is doing a good job with the economy. He has a lot of convincing to do -- and per your point I am not sure how many people can actually be convinced!
All the states you mentioned were won by Joe Biden except North Carolina. Trump has done nothing to convince those who did not vote for him in 2020 to change their mind and vote for him in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee. Biden on the other hand has done plenty to convince those who voted for him in 2020 to again vote for him in 2024 and also will convince some of those who voted for Trump in 2020 to cross over and vote for him. "Bidenomics" is one of the reasons he will succeed in 2024. Historically low unemployment, inflation coming down , Gas prices also coming down etc compared to Trump's pending criminal charges, election denialism and January 6 insurrection, etc. America will make the right choice come 2024.. Pennsylvania , Arizona and Wisconsin all have Democratic Governors for a reason and an excellent polling Company (Marquette) came out with a poll in Wisconsin this week I believe with Biden leading Trump by 9 points. Biden has always said compare me with the alternative and not the Almighty.
Chris, say it again for us uneducated masses in the back. Why must we leave the choosing of the most powerful leader in the world up to the electoral college? And therefore to the whims of a few thousand people in four states?
I disagree that Biden is a particularly weak candidate. I think that almost no other Democrat could have won in 2020, and that probably no other Democrat can win in 2024. Why? Because he’s the only person the Dems could nominate that doesn’t come with an easy tripwire on them that gets people in the middle to say, “I don’t like that person.” Give the GOP almost any hook to drive wedges, and they can get just a few people in the persuadable/ambivalent middle who either would normally lean Republican unless it’s Trump against Obviously Safe Democrat, and/or just don’t care that badly, to either stay home or actually vote Republican... and then the Republican wins.
Biden won _because_ he was the most congenial, least antagonistic, somewhat dippy avuncular figure that didn’t trigger anybody. Now compare to anyone else. Bernie? “That guy’s a crazy socialist.” Warren? “She’s too liberal, and I just don’t know why but there’s something too naggy about her...” (Read: lots of voters just won’t vote for a woman and will choose their code words for why as they go.) Kamala: black, plus woman. Pete? Gay white rural guy who’s going to trigger the LGBTQ-uncomfortables as well as fail to draw voters of color for a multitude of reasons. AOC? The cross section of “woman,” “person of color,” and “socialist” pretty much checks all the boxes.
Now put that together with the likely narrative of “Biden drops out because he’s a failed president” and the inevitable corollary of “[insert other Dem nominee here] is running for failed Joe Biden’s second term,” and stir.
Don’t get me wrong. I *wish* we didn’t live in a country where being the most inoffensive white guy wasn’t what a Democrat had to do to win a presidential election. I am merely observing, on the most cynical level, what it actually takes. The Dems need their entire coalition to show up in order to win. The GOP only needs their base to show up plus just enough ambivalents in the middle to get squicked by the other guy, and they are cubic light years ahead of the Dems at how to convince voters in the center why they should hate the other guy at least much as theirs. Trump is the weird perfect storm of a pig even they can’t put enough lipstick on... but that doesn’t mean it’s a layup.
The Dems simply have very little margin for error, and I don’t know if I see anybody on their bench who is going to be able to do this better than Biden. The best middle ground I could see here is, “Biden is the worst possible Democratic candidate, except for literally every possible alternative with national name recognition.”
I am so looking forward to the day that the electoral college is nullified or at least neutered. It shouldn’t be this way. 3 million and 7 million national vote margins should mean something, not our kafkaesque 50 state elections approach.
Boy, is this ever a depressing read if one is not a fan of the current Republican Party.
Well I just think it suggests 2024 is a pure tossup or maybe a finger on the scale for Dems...but a pinky finger ;)
2024 is still a long time from now to start predicting what will happen. The Democrats are very optimistic and rightly so based on the achievements of Joe Biden so far. Nothing should dampen their optimism.
Unfortunately, we get suckered into polling and yet, it has been wrong in the recent past. With that being said, it’s a real tough thing to read under the circumstances. I don’t want to see close, nail biter, no room for error, etc. etc.. I know it’s way early and anything could happen. Deep down, many people want what is considered dinner table issues to be important and yet, with all of Trumps past and present, they eat it all up. They see him as their savior and all the red meat, the more the better. If the GOP had a sane nominee, I would be disappointed if Biden lost but could live with it. Always a winner and loser. Our side wins sometimes, the other side wins sometimes. So much more is at stake now. It’s our democracy, it’s what the United States of America is all about.
Has Real Clear Politics fixed or adjusted its polling average model? In the 2022 cycle RCP overweighted its averages by including low quality Republican leaning pollsters. Further they used polls from inconsistent time frames to favor Republican candidates. Many pundits used these averages to push the “red wave” narrative that never materialized. G. Elliot Morris and other data analysts called out RCP over this.
Not to my knowledge. I think the best thing to do with RCP polling averages is see them as a broad indicator. Like, the race is close right now. I don;'t known that Trump is ahead or behind. But it's close.
They said Trump was going to win in 2020
. The last time I checked it was Joe Biden in the White House and not Trump. Also in Georgia RCP said Walker was going to win the Senate racet as well as in Pennsylvania, they predicted Republicans would win the senate race in 2020. We all know how all that turned out. I guess people can believe the polls that align with your wishes but the final poll l is the election. Remember 2022 so called Republicans' Red wave that became a mirage instead
RCP might well be going a bit too hard to try to correct their polling after 2016’s poll aggregators said Hillary was prohibitively likely to win. 2020 represented a bit of a polling miss at the end, but not by as much as RCP evidently had it.
How about their prediction that the Republicans will sweep the 2022 midterm aka Red wave. How do we explain that?
Any polling averages that include Rasmussen are just not worth looking at. And some days I wonder if Chris is living in the same country as I am living in. Full employment! Record low unemployment! Most of the people who decry the economy acknowledge that their situation is just fine, thanks very much. Biden put together, and has kept together, the essential pro-Ukraine coalition. The administration brilliantly managed last weekend's Russia crisis. C'mon, Chris. You can do better analysis than this...and it is time to start. Chris somehow talks about how weak Biden is but never seems to mention how strong the country is these days.
Wayne, I am writing off of polls and data. You can feel free to disagree with me but the reality of polling -- NBC, CNN and others -- is that Biden is in the low 40s in job approval...and even lower than that on the economy. I am sorry if you disagree but those are the facts.
And I'll say it again: "C'mon, Chris. You can do better analysis than this." Writing something about the RCP averages is too simplistic for someone who can do better analysis. We all know what the RCP averages show. It's horse race stuff and some of us would prefer columns that make us think about WHY those polls show those numbers when, in fact, the country is being managed very well right now.
But you see Chris this is the problem. You are writing about what you are seeing and hearing and you are pissing people off.
The reality is what you are saying. You aren’t saying it will end up this way. You are just saying that is the perception now.
You are saying “it is too close to call”. At this point in time there is no way anyone knows what will happen.
Mahalo for keeping us informed.
Correct! I am saying it's close as of right now....and based on all sorts of data points it's likely to stay that way?
Chris - would it be worth looking into how much of the Republican strength in the polling is driven by an apparent myth about the economy? It seems deep down, a great number of voters will vote based upon how they feel the economy is doing, and how the economy is impacting their lives, regardless of or in spite of who is the candidate. And the myth is, the Republicans will better manage the economy, will reduce spending, move toward a more balanced budget, and the Democrats will do nothing but tax and spend. Yet, for a number of past administrations, the economy has performed poorly under Republican administrations, and Democratic administrations have managed comparatively more wisely, reducing the deficit, improving the economy and creating more jobs. Yet, if you ask most voters, which party will be more beneficial for the economy, the majority will say the Republicans. Why does this myth perpetuate when most objective facts do not support it?
It's such a good point, Mike -- and I think points to the fact that so much of politics is perception vs reality. Biden is going to make the case that his policies have lowered inflation, lowered unemployment, brought down gas prices etc. But man does he start from a deficit. Basically a third of Americans think he is doing a good job with the economy. He has a lot of convincing to do -- and per your point I am not sure how many people can actually be convinced!
Which red states could Democrats compete in 10 years, and vice versa?
A lot would be convinced by 2024. I guess that's what electioneering campaign is for
All the states you mentioned were won by Joe Biden except North Carolina. Trump has done nothing to convince those who did not vote for him in 2020 to change their mind and vote for him in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee. Biden on the other hand has done plenty to convince those who voted for him in 2020 to again vote for him in 2024 and also will convince some of those who voted for Trump in 2020 to cross over and vote for him. "Bidenomics" is one of the reasons he will succeed in 2024. Historically low unemployment, inflation coming down , Gas prices also coming down etc compared to Trump's pending criminal charges, election denialism and January 6 insurrection, etc. America will make the right choice come 2024.. Pennsylvania , Arizona and Wisconsin all have Democratic Governors for a reason and an excellent polling Company (Marquette) came out with a poll in Wisconsin this week I believe with Biden leading Trump by 9 points. Biden has always said compare me with the alternative and not the Almighty.
Chris, say it again for us uneducated masses in the back. Why must we leave the choosing of the most powerful leader in the world up to the electoral college? And therefore to the whims of a few thousand people in four states?