CHRIS CRUCIAL: A Republican *should* win this election, part 2 πππ
PLUS: AOC for mayor???
Be like Mary! Please check out my mission statement on why you should invest in me. Itβs $6 a month/$60 for the year. Do it today!π
1. Why the GOP *should* win
In early August, I wrote a piece making the case that Republicans should win the 2024 presidential race.
The argument was β and is β simple:
a) The incumbent Democratic president is unpopular
b) His vice president is the Democratic presidential nominee
c) On the two main issues of the election β immigration and the economy β voters trust Republicans more than Democrats
d) There is a built-in GOP tilt to the electoral college
e) The Republican nominee has survived an assassination attempt
All of those things are still true β except the last one. The Republican nominee has now survived TWO assassination plots!!
I was thinking of that piece today when I came across this terrific new analysis via Gallup headlined β2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP.β The entire piece is worth reading but this chart really makes the case very clearly:
You donβt need to a doctorate in political science to interpret those findings. On 8 of the 10 indicators of what the political environment will look like in November, Republicans have an edge. On the other two, neither side has an advantage.
βNearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party,β concluded Gallupβs Jeffrey M. Jones.
Itβs hard to argue. The issue and political environment β sans the actual candidates β is as good as it has been in a very long time for Republicans.
Take just one measure that Gallup uses: Party ID.
This is the number of people who, when asked, tell a pollster if they are a Republican, Democrat or Independent. Itβs a basic measure, but one that has long corresponded with the two partiesβ electoral fates.
Just in case thatβs too small to read, what the chart shows is that 48% of people now identify as Republicans (or lean toward Republicans) while 45% identify as Democrats (or lean toward Democrats). That marks the first time in the history of the Gallup poll that Republicans have led on the party ID question in the third quarter of a presidential year. Ever! Which is a long time.
Again, Gallup:
Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individualsβ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.
In yearsΒ when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.
And yet, Republicans arenβt winning the presidential election. Or at least not winning by anywhere near the margin that all of the available data on the political environment suggests they should be.
Why not? Easy. Donald Trump. Trump is, as I have said a whole lot of times, the weakest possible general election candidate for Republicans. Nikki Haley would be winning the race against Harris now. Hell, I think Ron βPudding Fingersβ DeSantis might be winning the race.
The problem for Republicans is that Trump controls the base of the party. None of the people who challenged him in the primary ever had a chance this year. So the candidate with the least appeal to general election voters was (and is) the only person the GOP base wants. And the base gets what it wants.
But, I think it is VERY possible that Republican strategists look back on this election β if Trump loses β and think that they blew an easy layup. And you donβt get many chances like that in presidential politics.
2. AOC + NYC
Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez waded into local politics on Wednesday β calling for New York City Mayor Eric Adams to resign.
AOC initially made the news in a statement to the New York Times. But she repeated the sentiment on X as well:
The statement likely lands with a thud in Adamsβ lap. While he and AOC have never been ideological compatriots β he is a self-styled moderate while she is one of the best known liberals in the country β she is, without question, the highest-profile Democrat to call for his resignation to date.
Adams, who was elected mayor in 2021, has had an extremely rocky tenure β which has only gotten worse of late. Hereβs the Timesβ quick summary of the issues buffeting his administration:
Earlier this month, federal agents seized the phones of the police commissioner, the first deputy mayor, the schools chancellor, the deputy mayor for public safety and a senior adviser close to Mr. Adams.
The Times reported on Monday that federal prosecutors investigating whether Mr. Adams conspired with the Turkish government to funnel illegal foreign donations to his campaign had also sought information about interactions with five other countries.
On Tuesday, the schools chancellor became the latest high-ranking official to announce he was departing. The police commissioner and the cityβs top lawyer have already resigned.
Adams is showing no signs that he will heed AOCβs resignation call. In the first six months of the year, in fact, Adams raised more than $1 million β a sign he plans to seek a second term next year.
The list of potential Democrats who may take on Adams in the primary next year is long. But, AOC is not on it β at least not yet.
What she wants to do with her political future remains something of a mystery. Some on the left urged her to primary Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer this year but that never seemed like a real possibility.
Her speech at this summerβs Democratic National Convention was, to my mind, one of the best of the entire four days β and did nothing to diminish chatter about her bright political future.
AOC turns 35 next month. Which, constitutionally speaking, means she is now eligible to run for presidentβ¦.
3. People HATE βProject 2025β
Thereβs all sorts of interesting data buried in the new NBC News national poll. (Chuck Todd and I talked about a bunch of them earlier this week.)
But hereβs one that really jumped out at me: People HATE βProject 2025,β the so-called conservative blueprint for a 2nd Trump Administration.
Just 4% of respondents said they had a positive impression of βProject 2025β while 57% said they had a negative impression. I mean, itβs less popular than socialism! And JD Vance!
What does that mean? That Kamala Harris and her campaign should talk about it β and try to make Donald Trump own it β every single day between now and the election. Maybe twice a day.
NOTABLE QUOTABLE
βItβs always better when youβre leavingβ β President Joe Biden, during an appearance on βThe Viewβ when told that the crowd βlovedβ him.
ONE GOOD CHART
Iβve been thinking a lot about what the post-election landscape looks like in 45 days or so. This chart, which Vox recently flagged, suggests we should all be worried β especially because Republicans trust Donald Trump much more than actual news sources when it comes to information on the election.
SONG OF THE DAY
Ryan Adamsβ personal life is problematic. But as a musician, I find him utterly compelling. His latest project involves Adams releasing a series of covers every week. This past week he covered two Doorsβ song β including βThe Crystal Ship.β
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Iβve got another reason why a Republican ( read Fascist) candidate should win in 2024.
The unending dumbing down of the great American electorate to the point where a razor thin majority of voters are under educated, uninformed, and content with their ignorance and stupidity.
And the razor thin margin is only going to grow into a clear majority.
Second comment. In all the discussion about why the Republicans should win the presidency, and why they arenβt β- I am just gobsmacked, that the fact Trump is a convicted felon, convicted of sexual assault, convicted of defamation (and fined $83M) and convicted of fraud - the the tune of $450M doesnβt even deserve a mention. Beyond appalling.