What I get from these charts is: people are becoming more Republican leaning because they are misinformed and will continue that trajectory because they will continue to be misinformed. Great. You’re bumming me out Chris!
Agree CAP, but it’s not always “mis”informed, sometimes it is less informed, or not informed at all. Some things in the charts worries me that a less informed, less educated, electorate can be influenced more easily if that were the goal by shady politicians….
Exactly Steve. I see no way out of this because many people will continue down the path of mis-less-lack of-information. And really, isn’t that the goal of the right wing agenda? Keep people uninformed and uneducated so they can do all sorts of things that don’t benefit most people but those people will be none the wiser. As a matter of fact those people will even vote for it!
Thanks. Maybe, influenced vs.convinced, something to think about.…. I am curious where some of the current conversations will go around freedom to say whatever you want (can’t censor me), and freedom to believe whatever you hear or read (other than the fake news); you do have the right to do either or both. Facts though still matter. And it is important (in my mind) to try to get a sense of what is fact and what is BS. So if a particular voter chose to believe Trump that little boys go to school and then come home that day little girls, and on that sole basis and for that only reason voted for Trump, I would say the voter was sadly influenced by Trump’s propaganda may be the reason for the vote. In bigger numbers, since we’re talking 150 million voters, many people would have called BS on that one (but still vote for Trump), some people would take the extra step to look it up themselves to see if it is really happening (and call it BS and then want to vote for Harris), and that information is readily there to check for either more or less educated people ( most everybody knows how to google). It is really a matter of having the time, energy and desire to think it through and perhaps more educated people have that additional critical thinking skill set that works for them. Again, large numbers, general stuff. I was and am always amazed that people who would research to death that new car (and not trust the car salesman’s pitch) or washing machine (that Home Depot lady knows squat about anything) but would easily hand their life savings to the Bernie Madoff’s of our world or that prince in Ethiopia. Why? Bernie’s a rich guy, must be smart, I can trust him. A prince? Geez, and he wants to make me a millionaire? Human beings are a fascinating lot, no?
Trump won because of all of the things that were represented in those 15 charts. ANY Republican candidate would have won. And if the Dems want to right their ship, they should first concentrate on getting rid of the toxic, far left "progressive" wing of their Party. Those few dopes get outsized attention and provide jet fuel to the opposition.
What are the far left positions you find toxic, and why? Child care credit? Health insurance? Support for LBGQT human rights? Higher minimum wage to help workers? Support for Social Security and Medicare? Voting rights?
None of those are far left ideologies. I think he is referring to identity politics, woke institutional reform, socialism, redistribution of wealth, the Green New Deal, and demonizing white privilege, etc. etc.
"Transing away the gay": sterilizing, desexing, and mutilating thousands of gay kids each and every year in this country on the basis of pure medical quackery. And every Democrat in office fully supports this violent homophobia.
Yep, it's not a well-known set of facts. The Democrats claim it's GOOD, ACTUALLY, and say they're all for "trans rights".
Numbers:
> Researchers were able to identify a total of 13,994 minors across the United States who received medical treatment for gender dysphoria over the course of four years (2019-2023).
Most of the operations were removing the healthy breasts of underage girls who were starting to feel same-sex attraction, and then told (on the internet, at school: see the "gender unicorn" poster commonly found in schools) that they are really boys.
Puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones are both sterilizing and desexing: start them early enough (which is what the trans activists advocate for), and the future ability to attain orgasm is likely permanently impaired.
The UK is one of several European countries that conducted thorough evidence reviews of pediatric sex-trait modification (aka "gender affirming care"), and found that there was no significant evidence of benefit and plenty of evidence of harm. Now, puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones cannot be prescribed in the UK outside of controlled clinical trials.
But in the US, it's still full speed ahead, with the Democrats passing new laws ("trans state sanctuary laws", Walz proudly signed Minnesota's) that greatly weaken the rights of parents to refuse this treatment for their kids. Most blue states now have laws that classify such refusal as equivalent to child abuse. These laws were unanimously supported by Democrats.
I'm not familiar with all the various treatments, but I would wager that doing nothing promotes despair and potential suicide in the child. I think the most important thing is to be aware of the child's feelings and emotions.
The claim has been that puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries (aka "gender affirming care") are needed to reduce suicide risk, anything else (talk therapy, psychoactive drugs like antidespressants) are not good enough. However, there is no data to support this. See the Cass review from the UK, a more recently published study from Finland, or the US researcher who spent ten million dollars of US taxpayer money researching the mental health benefits of publerty blockers, found there were none, and then did not publish the results.
I would say that most Democrats, like me, are cautiously supportive of gender affirming care. I think we want what is best for the child...and parents.
This drives me crazy. Absolutely crazy. There is nothing in the MN law that Walz signed that takes any rights away from parents of underage children. MarkS is mistaken and it is easy to do a search and read the bills that are referenced. This is what is broken in this country. Misinformed, lied to, head in the sand......voters!!!!!!
If you want what is best for the child, that would be banning puberty blockers (which are just repurposed chemical castration drugs), cross-sex hormones, and sex-trait modification surgeries. This is what the UK has done after a thorough review of the evidence, which you can read here:
A little misleading actually. Charts might illustrate, but they don't explain. Republican turnout was up by a couple million and Democratic was down by 10 million. How much of this was unwillingness to vote for a woman, not to mention a non-white woman? The influence of "MSM" has declined if you don't count Fox, which is arguably very much mainstream now. Disinformation and ignorance are rampant. Rebutting dishonesty is not a fair fight. Standards for behavior are dead. Social media is toxic, but powerful. Democrats are extremists, but Republicans are reasonable representatives of the people? Incumbency is under attack across the globe where people have the genuine vote to express themselves. We're in the midst of seismic change, escape from which won't be easy, perhaps not even possible.
Democrat turnout is definitely not down by 10 million. Also you’ve completely omitted the possibility of vote switchers from Biden to Trump as a reason for decreased Democrat vote totals.
The final votes aren't in, but the Dem vote is way down from 2020. The trump vote is not up anywhere enough to account for Dems voting for him. The Dems just didn't vote, which I have a hard time understanding.
Harris will end up down 5 million and Trump will be up 2-3 million on 2020. You cannot discount people switching their vote as a possible explanation for some of the delta.
Great charts and work as usual. I thought of you this morning when I saw Chris Wallace was leaving CNN to enter the podcast/digital space. As the charts note, the median age of the newspaper & cable/primetime TV viewer is old & only getting older (I'm apparently one a dying breed). Telling customers/voters they're wrong and should consume things as we always have is a losing proposition - you need to meet them where they are.
It's scary to me that people are getting news from social media but I recognize that I'm not normal as I subscribe to many papers/publications.
Keep up the good work - even though it's a diffuse market, we need objective truth tellers out there.
It is a sad day for our republic if some unfortunate inflation (which is world wide) causes voters to deny (forget) the insanity (immorality) of donald trump and all the republican politicians that have sane washed him.
Wanted to share out a great quote from a voter as posted by Gabe F. I sure hope Ds take this to heart before the midterms.
- CNN reported on a focus group with a woman in Pennsylvania who called the Republicans “crazy” and the Democrats “preachy,” and said she was leaning towards the Republicans. Why? “Because ‘crazy’ doesn’t look down on me,” she said. “‘Preachy’ does.” That’s the type of perception the party has to reverse
We allowed the Republicans to brand us without effectively punching back. Harris was never preachy, nor did she have a single bad thing to say about Trump supporters. Not one.
Also, I think the things they told people to fear (transgender kids, immigrants) resonated more than the things we told them to fear (autocracy, fascism).
If Americans are still experiencing high prices, expensive home mortgages in 2026 and 2028 and Democrats have a white Christian male as leader, Democrats will win elections. The charts show voting behavior, this time. But I don’t think they are permanent. The declining influence of MSM maybe be permanent though lol
Can we move beyond this. I appreciate all you have done to explains your views on the election and all the charts but it is done now. It was the economy. Americans voted their pocket books. I am more interested now in what happens moving forward. The economy put the Republicans in power. In spite of any charts I do not view this as a mandate on anything besides the economy but worry that the extreme right will use Trump now to their advantage on a number of social issues. How do you see Trumps cabinet picks as having an impact on social issues. What are your thoughts on what is happening on social media towards women. When or if do you think the mass deportations he promised will start. And if they over step as badly as expected what could the backlash be in the midterms?
I would love to start looking forward and stop rehashing this election.
The election was 7 days ago. It was four years in the making. It has reverberations and echoes that influence how politicians think and what they say for months and years to come.
You don't just "move on" from a massive national election!
WOW. I did not mean to offend you. I am a long time fan of yours from way back. I have always thought your insights were interesting and informative. When I found you here on Substack I subscribed almost immediately and have found this to be an interesting concept where you could actually communicate with your readers. I just thought I was expressing my opinion in a constructive way.
I have to admit that you have made feel like something of an idiot.
Agree. When Republicans lost in 2020 they didn’t seem to care why, and it didn’t much hurt them in 2024. Plus, 2026 and 2028 are going to be different climates so even if we figured out what we did wrong in 2024 those lessons will not directly apply.
I dunno. Some of these charts lead to over-simplified conclusions. Are the American people less informed or more distrusting of institutions than 150, 100 or even 50 years ago, when there were far fewer high school grads, college grads, far more abject illiteracy and poverty? I doubt it. In 1932-33, when 25% of the U.S. workforce was unemployed, and true fascism and communism were sweeping the world, it was a real threat here as well. If you travel the US now and could time-travel back to 1932, the country was clearly ripe for revolution then and is not today.
Did Trump really win a "sweeping" victory? I don't think so. For all the weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth, there was NOT a Trump landslide by any measurement.
Updated estimate: Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
other 2.6m votes (1.6%)
Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
Trump margin +1.4% Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.0%)
Don't give up! We can still do ballot curing TODAY!
Tens of thousands of ballots are in limbo due to technicalities which can be fixed (a missing zip code on a mail ballot envelope, a sloppy signature). The voters need to be notified - that can be done by phone even if you’re out-of-state. These are races for Congress, also down ballot races which are very important.
This link tells you where elections are still in play. Click on a state and you’ll see a list that includes phone banking opportunities.
Chris, or anyone in this community. Have we seen data on "ticket splitters" in the blue walls states? Ticket Splitters in that they voted Trump, but down ballot they voted for Dems running for Senate, House etc.?
I heard there were a numbrr of trump voters who just voted for Trump and did not vote the rest of the ballot. That could account for some of the split vote totals too.
I saw that in the more upscale neighborhood in Los Angeles County that I worked the polls in.
Given the Ballot Marking Devices we use, and the number of people that made errors due to not reading the instructions on screen or listening to me, I had to stand next to many voters (particularly, but not exclusively, older voters), show them how to hit the “More” button to review their entire ballot BEFORE printing and depositing in the integrated ballot box. Consequently, I couldn’t help but view some of their choices, specifically the end of the ballot, where President and Senator were listed.
While not a huge number, I *did* see quite a few people that voted for Trump for President *and* Adam Schiff for the Senate. I thought it was a bit peculiar….
Great info Chris. Do you think this is permanent, a Trump phenomenon, or something unique to 2024? We were all singing a different tune four years ago. Even two years the Dems looked to be in good shape.
Great set of charts.... The ones around news and media consumption really are very good. We are separated into our bubbles and don't understand how the other side believes things. I'm a dem but spend time watching Fox and Joe Rogan so that I'm informed about what they think and what they want... I'm seeing lots of folks leaving X.. That is foolish. We need to be where conversation is happening rather than retreating into safe spaces and further bubbles where we are only with those we agree with... If we continue do do so we will be continuing to be surprised at election results.
You rated President Trump a 3 as a general election candidate prior to the election.
After winning 85-90 percent of all counties and winning the senate and keeping house and literally making the Republican Party the MAGA party do you change your mind and give him a better rating?
I'm not Chris but it is an article of faith among Dems (and Chris) that someone like Nikki Haley would have done far better than Trump in 2024. "If she had run it would have been a red wave." They see that a large percentage of voters would never vote for Trump, and that's true. I think that they overlook Trump's ability to bring out people who would otherwise not vote at all.
Trump won WI by less than 1%, MI by 1.4%, and PA by 2.1%. OK he won, but those are not huge amounts. Perhaps someone on the Dem side who had run in primaries had been the Dem nominee, the outcome would have been different. But we'll never know.
What I get from these charts is: people are becoming more Republican leaning because they are misinformed and will continue that trajectory because they will continue to be misinformed. Great. You’re bumming me out Chris!
Agree CAP, but it’s not always “mis”informed, sometimes it is less informed, or not informed at all. Some things in the charts worries me that a less informed, less educated, electorate can be influenced more easily if that were the goal by shady politicians….
Exactly Steve. I see no way out of this because many people will continue down the path of mis-less-lack of-information. And really, isn’t that the goal of the right wing agenda? Keep people uninformed and uneducated so they can do all sorts of things that don’t benefit most people but those people will be none the wiser. As a matter of fact those people will even vote for it!
Ha ha ha!
Have not learned a thing!
Good grief
What have I failed to learn, willing to try to understand.
I think Dutch is suggesting that you are mistakenly assuming that those who are less educated are being influenced, rather than convinced.
Thanks. Maybe, influenced vs.convinced, something to think about.…. I am curious where some of the current conversations will go around freedom to say whatever you want (can’t censor me), and freedom to believe whatever you hear or read (other than the fake news); you do have the right to do either or both. Facts though still matter. And it is important (in my mind) to try to get a sense of what is fact and what is BS. So if a particular voter chose to believe Trump that little boys go to school and then come home that day little girls, and on that sole basis and for that only reason voted for Trump, I would say the voter was sadly influenced by Trump’s propaganda may be the reason for the vote. In bigger numbers, since we’re talking 150 million voters, many people would have called BS on that one (but still vote for Trump), some people would take the extra step to look it up themselves to see if it is really happening (and call it BS and then want to vote for Harris), and that information is readily there to check for either more or less educated people ( most everybody knows how to google). It is really a matter of having the time, energy and desire to think it through and perhaps more educated people have that additional critical thinking skill set that works for them. Again, large numbers, general stuff. I was and am always amazed that people who would research to death that new car (and not trust the car salesman’s pitch) or washing machine (that Home Depot lady knows squat about anything) but would easily hand their life savings to the Bernie Madoff’s of our world or that prince in Ethiopia. Why? Bernie’s a rich guy, must be smart, I can trust him. A prince? Geez, and he wants to make me a millionaire? Human beings are a fascinating lot, no?
There has been a deliberate effort to degrade education and this is the result. It will get worse when this cohort of students become voters.
School boards are very important elections. Attending school board meetings is important.
Trump won because of all of the things that were represented in those 15 charts. ANY Republican candidate would have won. And if the Dems want to right their ship, they should first concentrate on getting rid of the toxic, far left "progressive" wing of their Party. Those few dopes get outsized attention and provide jet fuel to the opposition.
What are the far left positions you find toxic, and why? Child care credit? Health insurance? Support for LBGQT human rights? Higher minimum wage to help workers? Support for Social Security and Medicare? Voting rights?
None of those are far left ideologies. I think he is referring to identity politics, woke institutional reform, socialism, redistribution of wealth, the Green New Deal, and demonizing white privilege, etc. etc.
"Transing away the gay": sterilizing, desexing, and mutilating thousands of gay kids each and every year in this country on the basis of pure medical quackery. And every Democrat in office fully supports this violent homophobia.
Well, that's news to me.
Yep, it's not a well-known set of facts. The Democrats claim it's GOOD, ACTUALLY, and say they're all for "trans rights".
Numbers:
> Researchers were able to identify a total of 13,994 minors across the United States who received medical treatment for gender dysphoria over the course of four years (2019-2023).
> Over 5,700 of those kids were operated on.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/08/us-news/over-5700-americans-under-18-had-trans-surgery-from-2019-23/
Most of the operations were removing the healthy breasts of underage girls who were starting to feel same-sex attraction, and then told (on the internet, at school: see the "gender unicorn" poster commonly found in schools) that they are really boys.
Puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones are both sterilizing and desexing: start them early enough (which is what the trans activists advocate for), and the future ability to attain orgasm is likely permanently impaired.
The UK is one of several European countries that conducted thorough evidence reviews of pediatric sex-trait modification (aka "gender affirming care"), and found that there was no significant evidence of benefit and plenty of evidence of harm. Now, puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones cannot be prescribed in the UK outside of controlled clinical trials.
But in the US, it's still full speed ahead, with the Democrats passing new laws ("trans state sanctuary laws", Walz proudly signed Minnesota's) that greatly weaken the rights of parents to refuse this treatment for their kids. Most blue states now have laws that classify such refusal as equivalent to child abuse. These laws were unanimously supported by Democrats.
I'm not familiar with all the various treatments, but I would wager that doing nothing promotes despair and potential suicide in the child. I think the most important thing is to be aware of the child's feelings and emotions.
The claim has been that puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries (aka "gender affirming care") are needed to reduce suicide risk, anything else (talk therapy, psychoactive drugs like antidespressants) are not good enough. However, there is no data to support this. See the Cass review from the UK, a more recently published study from Finland, or the US researcher who spent ten million dollars of US taxpayer money researching the mental health benefits of publerty blockers, found there were none, and then did not publish the results.
References:
https://cass.independent-review.uk/home/publications/final-report/
https://mentalhealth.bmj.com/content/27/1/e300940.full
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/science/puberty-blockers-olson-kennedy.html
I would say that most Democrats, like me, are cautiously supportive of gender affirming care. I think we want what is best for the child...and parents.
This drives me crazy. Absolutely crazy. There is nothing in the MN law that Walz signed that takes any rights away from parents of underage children. MarkS is mistaken and it is easy to do a search and read the bills that are referenced. This is what is broken in this country. Misinformed, lied to, head in the sand......voters!!!!!!
If you want what is best for the child, that would be banning puberty blockers (which are just repurposed chemical castration drugs), cross-sex hormones, and sex-trait modification surgeries. This is what the UK has done after a thorough review of the evidence, which you can read here:
https://cass.independent-review.uk/home/publications/final-report/
^^^^THIS.
A little misleading actually. Charts might illustrate, but they don't explain. Republican turnout was up by a couple million and Democratic was down by 10 million. How much of this was unwillingness to vote for a woman, not to mention a non-white woman? The influence of "MSM" has declined if you don't count Fox, which is arguably very much mainstream now. Disinformation and ignorance are rampant. Rebutting dishonesty is not a fair fight. Standards for behavior are dead. Social media is toxic, but powerful. Democrats are extremists, but Republicans are reasonable representatives of the people? Incumbency is under attack across the globe where people have the genuine vote to express themselves. We're in the midst of seismic change, escape from which won't be easy, perhaps not even possible.
Democrat turnout is definitely not down by 10 million. Also you’ve completely omitted the possibility of vote switchers from Biden to Trump as a reason for decreased Democrat vote totals.
The final votes aren't in, but the Dem vote is way down from 2020. The trump vote is not up anywhere enough to account for Dems voting for him. The Dems just didn't vote, which I have a hard time understanding.
Harris will end up down 5 million and Trump will be up 2-3 million on 2020. You cannot discount people switching their vote as a possible explanation for some of the delta.
On 11/12 at 11 PM central, trump is only up 1,268,319 and Harris is down 8,934,326.
There is still something like 5 million votes outstanding last I checked. She’s going to win a lot of them in California.
Great charts and work as usual. I thought of you this morning when I saw Chris Wallace was leaving CNN to enter the podcast/digital space. As the charts note, the median age of the newspaper & cable/primetime TV viewer is old & only getting older (I'm apparently one a dying breed). Telling customers/voters they're wrong and should consume things as we always have is a losing proposition - you need to meet them where they are.
It's scary to me that people are getting news from social media but I recognize that I'm not normal as I subscribe to many papers/publications.
Keep up the good work - even though it's a diffuse market, we need objective truth tellers out there.
As always Chris - thank you for your analysis. Even the conclusions that I don’t care for…!
Thanks for reading -- and supporting!
I truly appreciate what you do. I recognize the effort that it takes to be objective, and I thank you for that.
That means a ton to me. Thanks so much for the nice note.
It is a sad day for our republic if some unfortunate inflation (which is world wide) causes voters to deny (forget) the insanity (immorality) of donald trump and all the republican politicians that have sane washed him.
Wanted to share out a great quote from a voter as posted by Gabe F. I sure hope Ds take this to heart before the midterms.
- CNN reported on a focus group with a woman in Pennsylvania who called the Republicans “crazy” and the Democrats “preachy,” and said she was leaning towards the Republicans. Why? “Because ‘crazy’ doesn’t look down on me,” she said. “‘Preachy’ does.” That’s the type of perception the party has to reverse
We allowed the Republicans to brand us without effectively punching back. Harris was never preachy, nor did she have a single bad thing to say about Trump supporters. Not one.
Also, I think the things they told people to fear (transgender kids, immigrants) resonated more than the things we told them to fear (autocracy, fascism).
If Americans are still experiencing high prices, expensive home mortgages in 2026 and 2028 and Democrats have a white Christian male as leader, Democrats will win elections. The charts show voting behavior, this time. But I don’t think they are permanent. The declining influence of MSM maybe be permanent though lol
Can we move beyond this. I appreciate all you have done to explains your views on the election and all the charts but it is done now. It was the economy. Americans voted their pocket books. I am more interested now in what happens moving forward. The economy put the Republicans in power. In spite of any charts I do not view this as a mandate on anything besides the economy but worry that the extreme right will use Trump now to their advantage on a number of social issues. How do you see Trumps cabinet picks as having an impact on social issues. What are your thoughts on what is happening on social media towards women. When or if do you think the mass deportations he promised will start. And if they over step as badly as expected what could the backlash be in the midterms?
I would love to start looking forward and stop rehashing this election.
The election was 7 days ago. It was four years in the making. It has reverberations and echoes that influence how politicians think and what they say for months and years to come.
You don't just "move on" from a massive national election!
WOW. I did not mean to offend you. I am a long time fan of yours from way back. I have always thought your insights were interesting and informative. When I found you here on Substack I subscribed almost immediately and have found this to be an interesting concept where you could actually communicate with your readers. I just thought I was expressing my opinion in a constructive way.
I have to admit that you have made feel like something of an idiot.
Sorry for the comment.
Agree. When Republicans lost in 2020 they didn’t seem to care why, and it didn’t much hurt them in 2024. Plus, 2026 and 2028 are going to be different climates so even if we figured out what we did wrong in 2024 those lessons will not directly apply.
Amen to both Ron and HH's comments.
Messaging will come soon enough from the party in governance and their missteps.
I dunno. Some of these charts lead to over-simplified conclusions. Are the American people less informed or more distrusting of institutions than 150, 100 or even 50 years ago, when there were far fewer high school grads, college grads, far more abject illiteracy and poverty? I doubt it. In 1932-33, when 25% of the U.S. workforce was unemployed, and true fascism and communism were sweeping the world, it was a real threat here as well. If you travel the US now and could time-travel back to 1932, the country was clearly ripe for revolution then and is not today.
Did Trump really win a "sweeping" victory? I don't think so. For all the weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth, there was NOT a Trump landslide by any measurement.
Updated estimate: Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
other 2.6m votes (1.6%)
Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
Trump margin +1.4% Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.0%)
x.com/NateSilver538
Don't give up! We can still do ballot curing TODAY!
Tens of thousands of ballots are in limbo due to technicalities which can be fixed (a missing zip code on a mail ballot envelope, a sloppy signature). The voters need to be notified - that can be done by phone even if you’re out-of-state. These are races for Congress, also down ballot races which are very important.
This link tells you where elections are still in play. Click on a state and you’ll see a list that includes phone banking opportunities.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing?nvep=&hmac=&emci=f59be7e1-4e9d-ef11-88ce-000d3a98fa6b&emdi=ea000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&ceid=&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Folks, please restack this so others will see it !
Chris, or anyone in this community. Have we seen data on "ticket splitters" in the blue walls states? Ticket Splitters in that they voted Trump, but down ballot they voted for Dems running for Senate, House etc.?
I heard there were a numbrr of trump voters who just voted for Trump and did not vote the rest of the ballot. That could account for some of the split vote totals too.
I saw that in the more upscale neighborhood in Los Angeles County that I worked the polls in.
Given the Ballot Marking Devices we use, and the number of people that made errors due to not reading the instructions on screen or listening to me, I had to stand next to many voters (particularly, but not exclusively, older voters), show them how to hit the “More” button to review their entire ballot BEFORE printing and depositing in the integrated ballot box. Consequently, I couldn’t help but view some of their choices, specifically the end of the ballot, where President and Senator were listed.
While not a huge number, I *did* see quite a few people that voted for Trump for President *and* Adam Schiff for the Senate. I thought it was a bit peculiar….
Definitely ticket splitters in Nevada, Arizona and Texas as Senste Dem candidates ran ahead of Harris.
Great info Chris. Do you think this is permanent, a Trump phenomenon, or something unique to 2024? We were all singing a different tune four years ago. Even two years the Dems looked to be in good shape.
Great set of charts.... The ones around news and media consumption really are very good. We are separated into our bubbles and don't understand how the other side believes things. I'm a dem but spend time watching Fox and Joe Rogan so that I'm informed about what they think and what they want... I'm seeing lots of folks leaving X.. That is foolish. We need to be where conversation is happening rather than retreating into safe spaces and further bubbles where we are only with those we agree with... If we continue do do so we will be continuing to be surprised at election results.
Very interesting and informative.
Chris,
You rated President Trump a 3 as a general election candidate prior to the election.
After winning 85-90 percent of all counties and winning the senate and keeping house and literally making the Republican Party the MAGA party do you change your mind and give him a better rating?
I'm not Chris but it is an article of faith among Dems (and Chris) that someone like Nikki Haley would have done far better than Trump in 2024. "If she had run it would have been a red wave." They see that a large percentage of voters would never vote for Trump, and that's true. I think that they overlook Trump's ability to bring out people who would otherwise not vote at all.
Trump won WI by less than 1%, MI by 1.4%, and PA by 2.1%. OK he won, but those are not huge amounts. Perhaps someone on the Dem side who had run in primaries had been the Dem nominee, the outcome would have been different. But we'll never know.
Poop floats.
Why do you care?