Can this endorsement save Ron DeSantis?

On Kim Reynolds.

(Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

In the before times, what happened on Monday night would have been a political earthquake.

What happened was that Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign.

“I believe he’s the candidate that can win,” Reynolds told the Des Moines Register (with DeSantis sitting beside her). “And we also not only need somebody that can win, but we need somebody that has the skill and the resolve, which he clearly does, to reverse the madness that we see happening across this country.”

And she didn’t just say that! Reynolds also said that Donald Trump a) called and asked for her endorsement and b) she didn’t give it to him because she doesn’t think he can win.

Those facts led to this incredible troll by Matt Wolking, who handles communications for DeSantis’ Never Back Down PAC:

Taken all together, this should be a BIG deal! After all:

1. Reynolds is very popular among Republicans in the state (and presumably has a political organization she can bring to bear on DeSantis’ behalf)

2. Trump tried to get her endorsement

3. She chose DeSantis instead because she believed him to be more electable

This is the DeSantis argument in a nutshell! He’s the electable Trump! All of the stuff you like about Trump with none of the stuff you don’t like!

And yet and yet and yet.

I just don’t see the Reynolds’ endorsement as causing a fundamental shift in the race in Iowa (or anywhere else).

Go back to the Des Moines Register poll on the race that was released late last month. The topline numbers looked like this:

Trump 43%

DeSantis 16%

Nikki Haley 16%

No one else in the field had double digit support.

Those numbers actually undersell how bad things look for DeSantis in the state. He dropped 3 points from the August Register poll while Haley rose 10 points. The trend lines, in other words, don’t look good for Ron.

Reynolds is not a miracle worker. Endorsements can help a candidate build momentum but rarely create that momentum all on their own. And, increasingly, I am skeptical that an endorsement from one politician for another politician really moves all that many people anyway. (Remember how Al Gore’s endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004 was going to clinch the race for the former Vermont governor? Yeah, about that…)

DeSantis, as I have written, appears to be all but done as a candidate. Voters in early states and nationally have gotten a look at him and not particularly liked what they’ve seen. Haley has surpassed him as the preferred Trump alternative — in polling and in the major donor community.

Reynolds, no matter how popular she is, can’t fix that. DeSantis’ problems are more fundamental. People don’t like the candidate at the center of the campaign. No amount of high profile endorsements are going to change that.

Which raises another interesting question: Why did Reynolds do it? Sure, she had been signaling for months that DeSantis was her guy. But, she can read the tea leaves of the race as well as anyone. And the direction of DeSantis’ campaign is clear: Down. So why risk your own political capital on such a long shot?

Like, let’s say DeSantis finishes third in Iowa behind Trump and Haley. Or even a distant second behind Trump. In what world is that anything other than a bad look for Reynolds?

The two obvious answers to the “why” question are:

1. She felt loyal to DeSantis and decided to endorse him damn the torpedoes

2. She is angling to be a DeSantis VP pick if — by a major bank shot — he becomes the nominee.

I could believe either one of those. But neither make much sense to me. Loyalty in politics is overrated. (See Donald Trump.) And DeSantis’ chances of winding up as the nominee are small enough that it would seem like an outsized risk for Reynolds to endorse him in hopes that that long shot lands.

Regardless! The bottom line here is this: Reynolds can’t save DeSantis. I honestly don’t think anyone can at this stage.