Lots of interesting data in this post. Much appreciated. In my view, the most important things are the trend lines. Kamala is on the way up.Yes, she isn't as far ahead as Biden was, but she was starting from a deficit in two respects : 1) Trump was ahead of Biden &2) Kamala was largely unknown. As to the latter point, Sarah Longwell's focus group work is instructive. People didn't have a real sense of Kamala. But now that she is "out there," the focus groups are largely reporting positive reactions. In fact, I think her demonstration of political talent has surprised most of us. I hope and expect her lead to increase.
Yes, it's going to be close. But the comparison in polls at this point between 2020 and 2024 have Trump up by a fraction, unable to crack 44%. He's got a pretty hard ceiling barring some major development in the world or gaffe by Kamala Harris.
Yes, this 2024 election is going to be just as close as the 2020 election when Joe Biden defeated Trump. And guess what?, Kamala Harris is also going to defeat Trump in 2024 just as Joe Biden beat him in the close 2020 election. You watch ha ha ha....
Notice in #6 how a majority of Republicans (55%) agree with the separation of church and state. The gap between parties is not as wide as other metrics. Dems need to pound this abortion issue into the ground.
Honestly, I don't understand where a simple error (easy enough to make) automatically becomes a nefarious plot with ridiculous imputation of motive. Chris has more than established his bona fides for trying to play it straight and honest. That doesn't mean we'll always agree. But this kind of snide, glib presumption of biased motive -- based on absolutely nothing -- is exactly what has degraded political discourse since Trump's advent. I don't care whether it's on the Right or on the Left, it's worse than useless.
Hey Chris the Pew Research chart you shared was also shared on Chris Cuomo’s show a few nights ago… my big takeaway from that chart isn’t the Harris or Trump supporters, but the overall consensus among all voters… there’s a lot more the people of the country actually agree than you would think given the divisiveness of our politics nowadays… if you squint real hard, it gives me a sliver of hope for the future… Happy Labor Day and enjoy the long weekend… P.S. can you share your syllabus with paid subscribers? I’d love to see what you’ll be teaching this fall
Thanks for the charts. I find that some of the polling is using registered voters and others likely voters. Are those being aggregated together in the forecasting? If so, that wouldn't be helpful. The likely voters is where the problem has been in the past. Anyways, only a few weeks to early voting so that's all that matters really.
At the top of the post, Chris said he would be doing something different tonight. Instead of posting three stories, one of which could have been on Trump’s abortion flipflop, he chose to present 7 charts to give his subscribers a sense of the current status of the race and the mood(s) of the voters. Trump’s flipflop can wait until after Labor Day, and there doesn’t need to be much analysis involved. It was politically expedient: simple as that. The same is probably true of some of Kamala Harris’ flipflops, although I expect that hers were driven more by learning and reasoned thought, which Trump’s never are.
It seems the media is again giving Trump a free ride, without serious questioning of his ABSOLUTE NONSENSE and allowing him to deflect/distract from meaningful dialog while doing opposite with his opponent!
Yes, Trump's supporters were under polled in 2016 and 2020. Could it be that by now the poll stars have corrected (and over corrected) their mistakes and now are correctly polling Harris and Trump race. Which in effect could mean that Harris is TRUELY leading Trump.
Remember that the Democrats were under polled in 2022 when the polls predicted a Red wave which never happened. Just saying....
For those who believe in Polls this far out, Harris is leading Trump nationally by 3 to 4 points . According to Nate Silver's table, this lead gives Harris some 60 to 80% chance of winning the Electoral college and hence the election. So, I will rather be Harris now than being Trump ha ha ha....
We are all seeing the same picture, just as we did in 2015, when the controversy was about the colours of a dress sold in England (black/blue vs white gold). There was a correct answer, according to the designer (black/blue), but people just could not "see" it. Same today. Scary.
Lots of interesting data in this post. Much appreciated. In my view, the most important things are the trend lines. Kamala is on the way up.Yes, she isn't as far ahead as Biden was, but she was starting from a deficit in two respects : 1) Trump was ahead of Biden &2) Kamala was largely unknown. As to the latter point, Sarah Longwell's focus group work is instructive. People didn't have a real sense of Kamala. But now that she is "out there," the focus groups are largely reporting positive reactions. In fact, I think her demonstration of political talent has surprised most of us. I hope and expect her lead to increase.
I also fervently hope that her lead will increase. She has time!
Yes when he’s at a
Solid 35 then you can have a small breath.
Women, youngand old, are angry. They may be the wild card in this election!!
Yes, it's going to be close. But the comparison in polls at this point between 2020 and 2024 have Trump up by a fraction, unable to crack 44%. He's got a pretty hard ceiling barring some major development in the world or gaffe by Kamala Harris.
Yes, this 2024 election is going to be just as close as the 2020 election when Joe Biden defeated Trump. And guess what?, Kamala Harris is also going to defeat Trump in 2024 just as Joe Biden beat him in the close 2020 election. You watch ha ha ha....
He he he
your snarky post won't age well
Notice in #6 how a majority of Republicans (55%) agree with the separation of church and state. The gap between parties is not as wide as other metrics. Dems need to pound this abortion issue into the ground.
Chris, the Cook PVI Electoral Map you present in #3, which shows Republicans leading in every swing state, appears to be dated 2022.
Of course it is. Chris has to not make
Trumpy mad.
Honestly, I don't understand where a simple error (easy enough to make) automatically becomes a nefarious plot with ridiculous imputation of motive. Chris has more than established his bona fides for trying to play it straight and honest. That doesn't mean we'll always agree. But this kind of snide, glib presumption of biased motive -- based on absolutely nothing -- is exactly what has degraded political discourse since Trump's advent. I don't care whether it's on the Right or on the Left, it's worse than useless.
Hey Chris the Pew Research chart you shared was also shared on Chris Cuomo’s show a few nights ago… my big takeaway from that chart isn’t the Harris or Trump supporters, but the overall consensus among all voters… there’s a lot more the people of the country actually agree than you would think given the divisiveness of our politics nowadays… if you squint real hard, it gives me a sliver of hope for the future… Happy Labor Day and enjoy the long weekend… P.S. can you share your syllabus with paid subscribers? I’d love to see what you’ll be teaching this fall
So you have to start reporting what’s really happening….. now. Interesting. 2 months to go. It’s not going to be that close.
Thanks for the charts. I find that some of the polling is using registered voters and others likely voters. Are those being aggregated together in the forecasting? If so, that wouldn't be helpful. The likely voters is where the problem has been in the past. Anyways, only a few weeks to early voting so that's all that matters really.
Chris, enjoy the Labor Day weekend with your family! Be happy!
Chris, it looks like you found a way to avoid posting on your Trump's flip flop on Abortion by posting those charts.
Well the flip flopping of Trump is even worse than what you describe as Harris's flip flop on some issues.
At the top of the post, Chris said he would be doing something different tonight. Instead of posting three stories, one of which could have been on Trump’s abortion flipflop, he chose to present 7 charts to give his subscribers a sense of the current status of the race and the mood(s) of the voters. Trump’s flipflop can wait until after Labor Day, and there doesn’t need to be much analysis involved. It was politically expedient: simple as that. The same is probably true of some of Kamala Harris’ flipflops, although I expect that hers were driven more by learning and reasoned thought, which Trump’s never are.
Of course it can wait…. Then everyone forgets it. They need to cover Trump in real
Time. They are failing.
Yes he’s really trying to not be biased. He struggles with that. Can’t talk about all trumps bad deeds. Make him and he look bad.
I can’t imagine this being close!
It seems the media is again giving Trump a free ride, without serious questioning of his ABSOLUTE NONSENSE and allowing him to deflect/distract from meaningful dialog while doing opposite with his opponent!
It’s disgraceful!
Yes, Trump's supporters were under polled in 2016 and 2020. Could it be that by now the poll stars have corrected (and over corrected) their mistakes and now are correctly polling Harris and Trump race. Which in effect could mean that Harris is TRUELY leading Trump.
Remember that the Democrats were under polled in 2022 when the polls predicted a Red wave which never happened. Just saying....
For those who believe in Polls this far out, Harris is leading Trump nationally by 3 to 4 points . According to Nate Silver's table, this lead gives Harris some 60 to 80% chance of winning the Electoral college and hence the election. So, I will rather be Harris now than being Trump ha ha ha....
We are all seeing the same picture, just as we did in 2015, when the controversy was about the colours of a dress sold in England (black/blue vs white gold). There was a correct answer, according to the designer (black/blue), but people just could not "see" it. Same today. Scary.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_dress#:~:text=the%20following%20day.-,Real%20colours%20of%20dress%20confirmed,from%20the%20retailer%20Roman%20Originals .
Donald J Trump may very well be the next president of the United States. Gulp.
Nope. Thats no way to talk. Remember the law of attraction.