CHRIS CRUCIAL: Donald Trump can't lose 🤦

PLUS: RFK Jr. to endorse!

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1. Rig the vote

I’ve often said that if you just listen to Donald Trump long enough, he will tell you everything he thinks — and exactly what he plans to do.

Consider today — and a Trump rally in North Carolina.

“Our primary focus is not to get out the vote — but to make sure they don’t cheat,” Trump told the crowd, referring to Democrats. He added that Republicans already have enough votes to win.

Logically, this makes no sense. Early voting hasn’t started in any state yet. Neither Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris have any votes yet.

What I think Trump is saying here is that he believes that Republicans will turn out. And if they turn out, there should be plenty of votes for him to win.

Which echoes his long-standing line about the 2020 election — that he got 74 million votes, far more than he received in 2016 and more than any incumbent president ever.

Trump’s implication is that he can’t have actually lost the 2020 race. Because he got 74 million votes. And that somehow Joe Biden’s 81 million votes were fraudulent.

And Trump is using that false premise — there has NEVER been any evidence of widespread (or even non-widespread) voter fraud in 2020 or any other national election — as a predicate to make his argument about the election to come.

On the campaign trail, Trump regularly echoes this basic sentiment — that Democrats only way to win in November is to cheat.

He talks about winning by such large margins that the election is “too big to rig.”

At his rallies, he regularly “praises” Democrats for their supposed cheating abilities. “That’s the only thing they’re good at,” Trump said of the opposition party’s supposed cheating, adding: “They have no shame whatsoever.”

Trump’s relentless drumbeat about the 2020 election — and how he can only lose in 2024 if Democrats steal the race — has had a massive impact on how Republicans view the chances of the vote this November being fair.

Look at not just the partisan split in this recent Pew poll but also how much less faith Republicans have in a free and fair election than they did as recently as 2020:

So, yeah.

The reality is that Donald Trump has been laying the groundwork for the last four years to claim “rigged” if he loses in November. He’s not even trying to hide the ball on that strategy. He’s coming right out and saying it.

“If everything’s honest, I’d gladly accept the results,” Trump said earlier this year. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” (“Honest” = “I win.”)

Which is scary. But not nearly as scary as the fact that a majority of Republicans are primed to believe him — facts be damned.

2. RFK Jr. plans to endorse Trump

Circle Friday on your calendar. Donald Trump is slated to be in Phoenix. That same day in that same city Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to deliver a speech “about the present historical moment and his path forward.”

ABC reported Wednesday afternoon that Kennedy was set to endorse Trump at the event.

According to the Washington Post, talks between the two men have been ongoing since they met in-person last month during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee:

Kennedy has continued to talk privately with former president Donald Trump since the Republican convention, with multiple phone conversations and at least one in-person meeting, according to a person close to Trump. Kennedy has expressed that he has talked to his immediate family about the prospect of an endorsement. Another person familiar with the conversations says Kennedy has indicated to the Trump team that he plans to endorse Trump.

Kennedy had previously made clear he would want the promise of a Cabinet post in exchange for his endorsement. It’s not clear whether Trump has — or will — promise that.

As recently as last week, Kennedy was seeking a meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris to discuss an endorsement of her — and a possible Cabinet slot for him. Harris did not take the meeting.

As I noted in this space yesterday, the Kennedy endorsement will give Trump a way to change the subject — even briefly — from the laudatory coverage of Harris that has dominated the political press over the last month.

Assuming the endorsement comes on Friday, it’s a clear attempt by the Trump campaign to blunt any bump that Harris receives from her acceptance speech tomorrow night.

Will it work? Eh. Kennedy is, without doubt, a devalued stock. His fundraising has disappeared. His poll numbers have collapsed. And he hasn’t done a public event since early July.

Still, Trump would rather have his endorsement than not. There is significant overlap between RFK Jr. voters and the Trump base — and the former president needs every vote he can get at this point.

3. Why Michelle Obama won’t run

After former First Lady Michelle Obama’s star turn at the Democratic convention on Tuesday, there was talk — again — about whether she might ever be convinced to run for office.

I think not. But she is a compelling public figure who, if she did decide to run for president at some point in the future, would likely start as the frontrunner.

I talked about Michelle Obama — and her MANY and REPEATED denials of interest in elected office — in today’s video for my YouTube channel.

4. Tonight’s convention plan

Night 3 of the Democratic convention is (almost) here. The big-ticket speakers are former president Bill Clinton, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Here’s my plan.

First, around 8 pm, I will post a thread in the Substack chat that will serve as our discussion board for the night. I will log on around 10 pm for the final 90 minutes or so of the proceedings. This is for paid subscribers only.

Once Walz finishes speaking — or the clock strikes 11:30 pm on the East Coast — I am going to do a livestream using new, cool Substack technology. To participate, all you need to do is download the Substack app on your phone and enable “push” notifications. (NOTE: This will not work on desktop computers.) This is FREE for EVERYONE.

Please come hang out. I need the company!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“That's down and dirty, isn't it?” — Donald Trump, on cocaine

ONE GOOD CHART

Want some good news? Cigarette smoking is down to an 80-year low in the U.S.!

SONG OF THE DAY

On Friday, the new album from Gillian Welch and David Rawlings comes out! Love them. Here’s “Hashtag” from the new album.

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