CHRIS CRUCIAL: Inside the mind of a swing voter 🧠

PLUS: VP Debate rules!

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1. The undecideds

Who’s going to win?

That question is VERY tough to answer. Why? Because the VAST majority of people have made up their mind about this election — and did so weeks or even months ago.

Except, of course, the so-called swing voter. The undecided voter. The person who might lean one way or another but isn’t totally sure whether they will vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

These are the people who will decide this (likely very close) election. But, how? As in, what are they looking for or worried about or needing to see more of to make their final decision?

The New York Times tried to answer this very question. They pooled together undecided voters in three of their swing state polls — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — and compiled what those people said their biggest concerns about Harris and Trump were.

They found that 18% of likely voters in those three states said they they hadn’t made a firm decision for either candidate yet. (Nota bene: I am surprised it was such a high number.)

And here’s what those voters were worried about — starting with Trump:

And now, that same chart for Harris:

Pretty interesting right?

The fundamental issue swing voters have with Trump is, well, Trump. That is, his personality and temperament is the biggest stumbling block to him winning their support.

For Harris, her personality/temperament also matters but nowhere near as much as Trump. (Trump’s number on that is DOUBLE Harris’.) Instead, swing voters wonder about Harris’ positioning on issues and her broader political beliefs — with “ideology” and the “economy” combining for almost 30%.

My takeaway from these numbers? Harris has an easier job of convincing these critical swing voters to be for her than Trump does.

Here’s why: Trump is never going to change who he is. It’s not possible. Even after surviving an assassination attempt, he spent 90+ minutes in his convention acceptance speech rambling about his various grievances. Trump is Trump. What you see is what you get.

Harris, on the other hand, needs to convince these swing voters that she is not some wacko liberal who is going to destroy the economy or open the border to all comers.

It’s not easy for her to do that but it is possible. Her trip to the border on Friday — and her campaign’s roll-out of a plan designed to project toughness on the issue — is aimed at assuaging just those sorts of worries with undecideds.

None of this means, of course, Harris will win — or Trump will lose. But I would definitely rather have her problems with swing voters than his.

2. Hot mics at the VP debate!

In advance of next Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance, CBS News released the rules for the event on Friday.

Both men will stand behind a podium for the duration of the 90-minute debate. Walz will be stage left. Vance stage right. There will be no opening statements but each candidate will get a 2-minute closing statement.

Thankfully, there will be no studio audience. (The September 10 and June 27 presidential debates also did not have a studio audience.)

And, in a change from the Sept. 10 debate that ABC hosted between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the microphones of the two candidates will NOT be muted — leaving Walz and Vance to interrupt each other (and the moderators!) to their heart’s content.

CBS later clarified that the network “reserves the right to turn off candidate microphones.” Well that’s good!

The moderators for the debate are Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan. It will start at 9 pm eastern time on Tuesday.

And, yes, I am working on something cool to do during (and maybe before and after!) the debate. Stay tuned!

3. Friday AMA

If it’s Friday, it means I spent an hour chatting with subscribers to my YouTube channel. We talked about the VP debate, Eric Adams and October surprises. Check it out! And subscribe!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“People know where I stand on Donald Trump, and that’s enough.” — Utah Sen. Mitt Romney on why he isn’t planning to endorse Kamala Harris for president

ONE GOOD CHART

I love a good generational chart. Plus, who the heck knew there was something called the “missionary generation”??? (Chart via ABC)

SONG OF THE DAY

Mustafa’s new album — produced by, among others, The National’s Aaron Dessner — is out today. It’s a really great listen. “Name of God” is the first track on it.

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