CHRIS CRUCIAL: The easiest paths to 270

PLUS: Could Kamala do Rogan's pod?

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1. Let’s do the map math

With one(!) week remaining before election day, I thought it made sense to revisit the electoral map — and game out the easiest/most probable paths to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Start here — the map with the seven swing states unallocated to either candidate (all maps courtesy of the amazing 270towin site):

Harris has the slightest of edges — 7 electoral votes — before we start doling out any states to either candidate.

Let’s begin with the easiest and most likely Harris path to the presidency. I continue to believe that path is comprised of wins in the three Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

In every election since 1992, those three states have voted for the same candidate, which suggests to me they are likely to do so again. And, if that candidate is Harris, the race is over before we even talk about the South or the Sun Belt:

Close observers will note that in order for Harris to get to 270 under this map she also needs to carry Nebraska’s 2nd district — and the one electoral vote she would get for doing so. That looks likely to me; a recent New York Times/ Siena College poll put Harris up 12 points in the 2nd.

Yes, there are other paths for Harris — a win in Georgia or North Carolina for example — but the Blue Wall is still her best bet.

For Trump, his best path is as simple. Win Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia and it’s over:

Which seems utterly doable. North Carolina and Georgia have been won exactly once each by Democratic presidential candidates since 1992; Barack Obama won the Tarheel State in 2008 and Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020.

The hardest lift of that trio for Trump is obviously Pennsylvania — where he won by 44,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 82,000 votes in 2020. Trump’s win in 2016, it’s worth noting, broke a six-election winning streak by Democratic presidential nominees.

There are, of course, myriad other combinations of states in the jigsaw puzzle to 270. One map I have been thinking a lot about lately is this one:

If Harris is able to split North Carolina and Georgia and Trump is able to win Pennsylvania, the next president will be decided by Arizona and Nevada. What that map would mean is that there is virtually no way we would know the winner for at least a week after election day — and maybe quite a bit longer if the races in Nevada and Arizona are close.

Both states count votes incredibly slowly and a close vote tally would slow the process even more. A delay that long would, I fear, raise questions in at least some voters’ minds about the validity and accuracy of the counts — and the ultimate results.

Maybe this will all be idle worry. Maybe the polls are wrong and either Trump or Harris sweep Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia — and we know the winner before midnight next Tuesday.

That’s always a possibility. But the more polling data — and early vote numbers — I see, the more convinced I am we are headed to the closest election since (at least) 2000. And that it might take a while to figure out who won.

2. The Rogan sweepstakes

Last Friday, Donald Trump spent 3(!) hours with podcast host Joe Rogan. On Wednesday — just six days before the election! — GOP VP nominee JD Vance will make the pilgrimage to Austin to chat with Rogan.

And the uber-popular podcast host is still holding out hope that he will land an interview with Kamala Harris — although he said Tuesday it hadn’t worked out to date.

Rogan posted the following on X:

To which Twitter troll Elon Musk offered this:

Rogan’s podcast audience is massive. It is the most listened-to podcast on Spotify. The video of his interview with Trump has already racked up 38 million views.

The audience of Rogan’s pod is also heavily tilted toward young men — a group that Trump has made inroads among in this election. An extended interview with Rogan might be a way for Harris to convince those young male voters to come back to her candidacy — and Democrats in general.

I agree with The Bulwark’s Sonny Bunch on the strategic decision the Harris team needs to make:

That seems right to me.

3. Here’s *exactly* how Harris wins

If you believe (and I do) that the biggest chunk of still-undecided voters are Republicans — and specifically Republican women — who do not like Donald Trump personally but prefer GOP policies on issues like the economy and immigration, the last few days have been VERY good for Kamala Harris’ chances.

Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday has led to two straight days of headlines about the people he chose to speak for him — and put his personality (and judgment) front and center even as undecided voters are starting to pay real attention to the race.

Over at my YouTube channel, I made a video on how Harris can win this race — and how Trump is helping her out lately. Make sure to watch and subscriber (it’s FREE):

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“No president has done more for Puerto Rico than I have.” — Donald Trump (of course)

ONE GOOD CHART

This chart — via WaPo — proves what you probably already knew: Republicans’ tweets are going viral MUCH more often than Democratic ones since Elon Musk bought X.

SONG OF THE DAY

In keeping with my efforts to stay calm in this final week before the election, I have been listening to a LOT of ambient music. This is one of my favorites: “Music for Psychedelic Therapy” by Jon Hopkins. “Tayos Caves, Ecuador i” is terrific off of it.

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