CHRIS CRUCIAL: The Trump Honeymoon 🌙

PLUS: The LAST uncalled House race!

In 48 days Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. I will be here bringing you everything you need to know between now and then — and over his four years in office.

If you want to support independent and nonpartisan journalism, I’m your guy. Read more about what I am doing and why I am doing it here. I’d love for you to become a paid subscriber to this newsletter. 👇

1. Donald Trump rides high (in polls)

Donald Trump is getting something right now that he never enjoyed after his 2016 win: A (polling) honeymoon.

A few data points to consider:

• A Pew poll released late last month showed that a majority of the public approved of Trump’s “policies and plans for the future”:

  

• A national poll conducted by Emerson College showed Trump with a 54% favorable rating — a six-point increase since Emerson’s final pre-election poll

• A CBS News survey found nearly 6 in 10 Americans pleased with how Trump has handled the presidential transition.

  

• A Gallup poll showed Trump with better favorable numbers than either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris

  

Historically speaking, this post-election bump isn’t super surprising. In the immediate wake of a victory, a president-elect tends to see his poll numbers improve. Americans like a winner; we think better of someone who has triumphed in a close-fought contest.

But, Trump has always been a-historical — at least in this regard. When he won in 2016, he never got any sort of honeymoon period — in the polls or anywhere else.

One of the most amazing facts of his presidency — to me at least — is that Trump never had a job approval at 50% or higher during his entire first term, according to Gallup. That made Trump the first president ever to never be viewed favorably by a simple majority of the public.

Things are different following his 2024 win.

Check out this comparison between Trump 2016 and Trump today done by Pew — in which voters were asked to rate their feelings toward him on a scale of 0 (cold) to 100 (warm):

And this one from Gallup about how people felt post-2016 about Trump’s win versus how they feel now:

Why do people feel better — albeit it marginally better — about Trump 2.0 than they did about Trump 1.0? I don’t really know! Do you have a theory?

What I DO know is that all political honeymoons end. The only question is when.

Still: For a man who had no real bump from his first victory, Trump and his team will take any and all positive poll numbers they can get right now.

2. The 435th House race ✅

California’s 13th district (via Washington Post)

One month to the day after the 2024 election, 99.77% of the 435 House races have an official winner.

And then there is California’s 13th district.

The race between Republican Rep. John Duarte and former Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray remains uncalled. Mostly because it is just so damn close.

Here’s where the votes stood as of Tuesday afternoon:

Gray 105,421 votes

Duarte 105,256 votes

Which [takes calculator out of pocket] means that Gray leads by 165 votes. Out of more than 210,000 cast!

The seat, which is anchored in Merced, was very, very close in 2020 when Duarte and Gray first faced off. Duarte won that race by just over 500 votes — or four tenths of a percentage.

The race could end tonight as it’s the deadline for the counties to certify their results.

If Gray prevails, the final count in the House — heading into the 119th Congress — would be 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. And with Reps. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz set to resign to take posts in the Trump administration and Matt Gaetz set on resigning, the GOP would be down to 217 seats. Meaning that if they lose a single GOP vote on anything, they lose.

Remarkable. And also ungovernable.

3. YouTube news! 🚨

I am amping up my output over at my YouTube channel — expanding to TWO livestreams a week where you can ask me anything! I did the first Tuesday livestream I have ever done this afternoon. (I have always done one on Friday afternoons — and will continue to do so.) You can watch it below. And make sure to subscribe to my channel! We are almost to 50K subs!!

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“I’m about to get the fuck out of here. Ask somebody else.” — Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who lost reelection in November, explaining why he isn’t interested in answering questions about Joe Biden’s pardon.

ONE GOOD CHART

Public support for banning handguns continues to decrease — with just 1 in 5 Americans now supporting the idea in Gallup polling. The recent decline is due in large part to the collapse of support among Democrats.

SONG OF THE DAY

Friends of mine who love hip hop have told me for a while now that I needed to listen to Mach-Hommy. I finally decided to do it when I saw the rapper’s 2024 album “#RICHAXXHAITIAN” on a ton of “best of” lists for the year. I am in the middle of a second top-to-bottom listen and have to say it’s really damn good. This is “Same 24” from the album.

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