CHRIS CRUCIAL: Why is Donald Trump campaigning on Long Island? 🤔

PLUS: Teamsters sit out 2024!

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1. Trumping New York?

The scene outside Trump’s Long Island rally Wednesday (Lalee Ibssa/ABC News)

Initially I thought I had read Donald Trump’s schedule for today wrong. It said he would be holding a campaign rally at the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island.

Which, of course, makes no sense. There are only 48 days left before the November election. Every minute of a candidate’s time at this late stage is precious. Surely Trump and his team wouldn’t waste a day campaigning in New York?

Well, dear reader, I am here to report that my initial review of Trump’s schedule was correct. Tonight he will hold a campaign rally on Long Island. The New York Post is live-blogging the whole thing — minute by minute!

But my initial question remains: WHYYYYYYYYY????

The obvious answer, I suppose, is that Trump thinks he can win the Empire State in November. Which he almost certainly cannot.

Joe Biden beat Trump in New York in 2020 by 23 points. Hillary Clinton won the state by 22.5 points over Trump four years earlier.

In fact, Democrats have won the last 9(!) presidential races in New York. (The last Republican to carry the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984; he also won it in 1980.) Since 1996, the smallest percentage of the vote the Democratic presidential nominee has taken in New York is 58.4%. The smallest!

Barring an electoral cataclysm, there is then NO WAY that Trump will win New York. Or even come close.

That reality hasn’t, of course, stopped Trump from insisting that the Empire State is a real battleground in his race with Vice President Kamala Harris. As recently as Tuesday, he took to social media to insist he can carry New York:

“WHAT THE HELL DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE?”

The actual political people at the top of Trump’s campaign know that he has no chance in New York. So, why are they wasting a day this close to the election?

My guess is that it wasn’t worth the fight. New York is Trump’s home state — even though he no longer lives there and regularly derides New York City as a hell hole. He wants the approval of the people he grew up around. (Don’t we all!) And while he is going to lose New York, his campaign wants to give a him a night where thousands of people cheer his name in his old stomping grounds.

(Sidebar: The Trump campaign has suggested that more than 60,000 people have asked for tickets to the rally. Nassau Coliseum fits 16,000.)

It’s sort of like the rally Trump did in Wildwood, New Jersey in the spring. It makes him feel like a big man!

No, ego petting does not seem like the best use of Trump’s time with less than 7 weeks to go before the election. On the other hand, a happy Trump does matter. He is less likely to create total chaos — or blow up his campaign infrastructure — if he feels like he is getting his own way.

So, seen through that lens, one day isn’t such a big price to keep the boss happy.

As they often do, Republican elected officials scrambled to make the case that Trump is actually in Long Island today because he cares deeply the Republican party — and, specifically, holding the GOP House majority.

“It does benefit him, because as president, he’s going to need a majority in the House, and those seats that we’re defending on Long Island and around New York are key to that majority,” GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito told Politico.

Which, maaaaaaybe.

D’Esposito’s 4th district is rated as a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. The 1st district, held by Republican Rep. Nick LaLota, is seen by Cook a ”likely Republican.” And Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s 3rd district is rated as “likely Democratic.”

But, color me skeptical that Trump is ever really doing anything mostly for others. My sense of him — as judged by his conduct for, well, his entire life — is that his decision-making is entirely driven by a single calculation: Is this good for me? If he determines it is, he does it — and if it might benefit someone else than he’s probably fine with it. But the “benefitting others” piece is NOT what drives his decision.

The other reason Trump is actually doing this rally is money. His campaign is holding a fundraiser around the event. And raising big bucks, according to the New York Times:

An invitation obtained by The New York Times offered tickets priced at $5,000 for reserved rally seating and $30,000 for a photo with the former president. For $250,000, the deep-pocketed few could enjoy the “V.I.P. Experience”: a brief chance to meet Mr. Trump, take a photo with him and lock down a “premium seat.” (Tickets for general admission were free.)

I get it. Truly I do. I just think it’s something very close to campaign malpractice to have Trump on Long Island — and not in Pennsylvania or Michigan or Georgia — this close to the election.

2. Teamsters sit out 2024

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, one of the largest labor unions in the country and a consistent supporter of past Democratic presidential candidates, will not endorse either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in this race.

“Unfortunately, neither major candidate was able to make serious commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are always put before Big Business,” Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in announcing his union’s neutrality.

O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention in July and insisted that his group’s endorsement was truly up for grabs. “You can have whatever opinion you want but one thing is clear: President Trump is a candidate who’s unafraid to hear from new, loud and often critical voices,” O’Brien said during that speech.

Despite O’Brien’s flirtation with Trump, the decision of the Teamsters to not endorse Harris is a surprise. The Vice President becomes the first Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996 not to win the Teamsters backing.

And she tried! As the Washington Post noted, Harris met with Teamsters leaders just 48 hours ago in hopes of convincing them to endorse her.

At issue appears to be a disconnect between leaders of the union and its rank and file. Most of its top leaders had endorsed Joe Biden’s candidacy before he dropped from the race at the end of July. But, according to an electronic and telephone poll of its members released by the Teamsters earlier this week, almost 6 in 10 said they preferred Trump.

The Teamsters boast more than 1.3 million members. It was ranked as the 4th most powerful union in the country in 2020.

3. Senate Democrats still not spending in Florida or Texas

Even as the Senate majority appears to be slipping away from them, Democrats have not yet committed to spending money on offensive opportunities in Florida or Texas.

“If you continue to see what’s happening in those two states, I think you’re likely to see more resources to go in,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who runs the party’s Senate campaign arm, told reporters in Washington on Wednesday. “Democrats are going to put more resources into those states. So if the momentum we see today continues, I’m certainly very encouraged. We’ll have to see how it goes.” 

Which, again, is not: “Yes, we are going to spend real money against Ted Cruz and/or Rick Scott.”

The 2024 Senate map was always going to be tough for Democrats. They have to defend 23 seats to just 11 for Republicans. And of those 23, three — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — are in states that Donald Trump won in 2020 and is very likely to win again in November.

The West Virginia seat, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, is already lost for Democrats. Montana Sen. Jon Tester is in big trouble. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown looks to be in a coin-flip contest against Republican nominee Bernie Moreno.

Given that Democrats currently hold a single-seat majority, they can’t withstand losing two seats — unless they can pick off either Cruz or Scott.

Cruz beat former Rep. Beto O’Rourke narrowly in 2018 and Rep. Colin Allred is running a well funded and solid campaign. The most recent poll in the race shows Cruz with a 5-point edge.

In Florida, Scott, who has also served as the governor of the state, faces off against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Polling has consistently shown Scott with a mid-single-digit lead.

The issue for Senate Democrats is that to commit fully to an ad campaign in Florida or Texas is a multi-million dollar investment. And given how much defense they are playing across the map, the party may feel as though they simply can’t spend money in those sorts of big and pricey states.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“We expect to disagree with Kamala Harris on many domestic and foreign policy issues, but we believe that she possesses the essential qualities to serve as president and Donald Trump does not. We therefore support her election to be president.” — A letter signed by more than 100 former Republican national security officials

ONE GOOD CHART

Someone got into my phone’s camera roll…

SONG OF THE DAY

Singer songwriter Tucker Zimmerman is 83 years old — and has been making music (and writing poetry) for almost as long as I have been alive. His latest album — “Dance of Love” — is out next month. And there’s something very cool about it: Big Thief, one of the best groups in the world, is the backing band for the entire album. Big Thief lead singer Adrianne Lenker sings on a bunch of songs — including “Burial At Sea.”

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