Does anyone even want to try to beat Donald Trump in the primary?

Unreal.

(Donald Trump)

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump was indicted for his leading role in attempting to overturn the results of a free and fair national election in 2020.

It was his third indictment of the year.

One might think that his Republican opponents for the party’s presidential nomination might leap at this chance to take the frontrunner down a peg.

One would be wrong.

“One of the reasons our country is in decline is the politicization of the rule of law,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis after the indictment came down. “No more excuses—I will end the weaponization of the federal government.”

“I remain concerned about the weaponization of Biden’s DOJ and its immense power used against political opponents,” said South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. “What we see today are two different tracks of justice. One for political opponents and another for the son of the current president.”

“The corrupt federal police just won’t stop until they’ve achieved their mission: eliminate Trump,” said businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. “This is un-American & I commit to pardoning Trump for this indictment.”

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley hasn’t said a word — at least not yet.

So, that’s that.

What’s remarkable is that the day before the latest Trump indictment dropped, so did a new New York Times/Siena poll that showed the former president obliterating the rest of the field.

Trump is at 54% to 17% for DeSantis. No one else gets more than 3% — yes, 3% of the vote. That poll is far from an outlier; in the Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump’s lead is now almost 36(!) points.

So, Trump is cruising. And along comes an indictment that, regardless of your politics, make clear the deep and lasting attempts he undertook to overturn the 2020 election.

It seems like an utter no-brainer that DeSantis, Scott and the like — those candidates seen as credible alternatives to Trump — would go after the former president. It's politics 101.

And yet and yet and yet. Here we are.

What gives?

There are basically two theories:

1. Trump will ultimately fall on his own. There seems to be a line of thought out there that goes like this: The collective weight of all of these indictments and legal entanglements will overwhelm Trump at some point. Or, and this is only whispered about, his age and poor health will catch up with him. Either way, Trump won’t make it through the primary process. So, there’s no reason to attack him since doing so will only piss off his supporters and make it harder for the likes of DeSantis or Scott to win them over eventually.

2. The race is already over. Trump’s lead is huge. And there is no recent historical parallel that suggests he can be caught. Why then piss him — and the Republican base he commands — off? Scott’s response to Trump’s latest indictment makes me think he is more interested in being Trump’s vice president than he is in trying to beat Trump for the nomination. Since DeSantis can’t be VP — he and Trump are both from Florida — I am not totally sure what he is playing at other than maybe positioning himself to be the inheritor of the Trump coalition in 2028 when, presumably, the Republican nomination will be open.¹

Let’s tackle them one by one.

I think the first idea is utterly rooted in magical thinking. There is NOTHING in the Republican base’s response to the past two(!) indictments of Trump to suggest that this one will someone tilt the balance of power against him. Nothing.

And, of course, at age 77, Trump is on the older end of the life spectrum. So, yes, I suppose death is always an option. But to bank an entire presidential campaign strategy on the possibility that Trump might die? Questionable.

The second idea is yet more magical thinking. If there’s one thing I’ve learned about Trump over the last few (7) years is that he is a) utterly unpredictable and b) does whatever he believes to be in his best interest at that exact moment.

Is it possible that Trump decides that Scott is the right fit for him as a vice president? Sure! But I think it has zero to do with whether Scott takes shots at Trump during the primary. (Trump, in the past, has actually shown some respect for people who are willing to after him.)

Ditto DeSantis. I don’t think anyone is going to give him credit for being nice to Trump in 2023 if/when he runs for president again in 2028. And, the idea of being Trump’s heir apparent is equally fraught since a) Don Jr. is always lurking and b) I am not entirely convinced that there is an heir to the Trump political appeal/operation.

Take a step back: It’s utterly baffling to me that DeSantis and Scott — among others — are actively running for president and simultaneously afraid or unwilling to attack the guy who is, literally, lapping the field.

I’ve repeatedly said in this space that the only way around Trump is through him. You have to figure out how to peel voters away from him if you want to win. And there’s just not that much time left in which to do it; the Iowa caucuses are in just 166 days.

Right now, the race looks more like a coronation than a contest. And, if Trump’s alleged main rivals for the party’s nod simply refuse to engage in any sort of sustained attack — on, well, anything — then Trump is going to walk to the nomination.

I don’t get the strategy. If there is a strategy at all.

1. I don’t rule out the possibility of Trump running again in 2028 — and neither should you.