Theory #3 - the other "candidates" are not serious about running for President - they are either running for VP or a cabinet position in Trump's Cabinet - pretty cushy job if you stay below the radar (e.g., Elaine Chow, Betsy Devos...). What a waste of all of the donor money being given to and spent by those "candidates"...
If Trump wins in 2024, what makes anyone think there will be a free and fair election and that he will retire from the "stage" gracefully? He will do anything in his power, which will be huge at that point, to stay in power. There will not be a fair and free election in 2028.
Not sure if there is any strategy. I am not sure why anyone of them got into the race other than perhaps Christie & Hutchinson. They seem able to go through Trump, yet no traction at all. You need to come out swinging, be loud, be all over the map as far as visiting the cities, towns, communities big and small. Get out and meet the people who will be casting their vote. If you can’t do that, you’ve got nothing. You can’t hide behind Trump and meekly say things or say you will support the eventual nominee, even if Trump. Some of this is not rocket science and yet, they are acting as if they haven’t a care in the world and doing nothing to try and get someone to vote for them. I know Christie doesn’t have a chance but would have loved to see him surge, surging right passed DeSantis. Now that could have been an interesting match up. As far as who I would have liked to see as the ultimate top dog....Asa Hutchinson.
It’s baffling to me. The strategy is simple: You go after the leader. And Trump is clearly the leader. And yet, all of the rest of these people just continue to pull punches.
As DeSantis makes the rounds of interviewing, how has he not been asked (or did I miss it?) Some variation of the following:
"We all know that if you win Iowa, or any state, fair and square, Trump is going to yell and scream it was stolen, he really won, and you are a cheater. The only 'if' here is you winning. He will do this. And a bare minimum of 1/3 of the Republican party will buy in. How will you handle that?"
And the follow up to that, when he poo-poos it happening, is "What is it in DJT's political career that makes you think there is any chance at all that he (and his base) will accept a result that he loses?"
Trump won’t be running in 2028. If we make him the main character in Everything Everywhere All At Once, there are (realistically) three fundamental universes from this point forward to election day 2028:
1. He wins the election and ends his prosecutions once in office. He is term limited in 2028 and thus cannot run.
2. He loses the election, is convicted on one or more of the federal indictments, and is still in prison in 2028, because Biden and/or Harris aren’t letting him out.
3. He loses the election, the rest of it shakes out as above, but he has already died in prison before the 2028 election.
If he doesn’t win this time, his only way to avoid dying in prison is if a future Republican president pardons him or commutes his sentence, and that’s not in the cards by 2028. “He runs from federal prison” strikes me as being firmly in “hot dog fingers” territory.
I have to disagree with your contention that Trump would be term limited and would not run in 2028. That creature has shown zero respect for the law or the Constitution (or decorum, human decency or anything else that makes us civilized.
He has already queried his horde if they would support him making himself president for life. He has already called for "termination" of parts of the Constitution.
If he gets into the White House in 2024 we won't be rid of him until he's in the ground and once that glorious day comes to pass either Jr or Vanky will be there to don the crown jewels.
Your no . 1. Scenario is not going to happen Eric. I think the most likely scenario is he is convicted in all or some of these crimes and President Joe Biden pardons him in 2025 out of respect for the office of the Presidency
Hard to say. If Biden has a McConnell moment in late October 2024, it’s probably time for us to do the screaming muppet run. I do agree that a Biden-Trump rematch is not a typical “insurgent runs against incumbent” deal -- both of them are effectively incumbent presidents, and as long as Biden is reasonably lucid I don’t see how Trump wins.
That said, I don’t see Biden pardoning Trump, and I don’t think he should. I think Trump partly exists because Ford pardoned Nixon and set an expectation that a president who commits crimes should actively expect not to go to jail. Trump is effectively pushing us into a cold civil war and thinks the law can’t or won’t touch him. While we’re a little more civilized than the “heads on spikes” days, figuratively speaking I believe that’s exactly needs to happen on a political and legal level. If he’s ever pardoned, it’ll be by a Republican. Indeed, I half expect that’s probably where his story will end: he will lose the election, he’ll get convicted, he’ll go to federal prison, and if he lives long enough to see another Republican in the White House, he’ll somewhat likely get pardoned down the road.
But... who knows? Ford largely ended his own political career by pardoning Nixon, and if Trump is convicted, perhaps that will break the fever enough that any future Republican capable of winning the presidency will be honest enough he won’t want to repeat that example. That said, that’s coming from roughly the exact same puppy dog hopefulness that had me thinking the Republican party would’ve thrown him overboard if he did something truly worth impeaching him for.
I think that in Scott's case, he is definitely bucking for the VP slot. Maybe Haley, too. The others are just a bunch of unprincipled cowards. Period. And as you suggested, it's not going to get them anywhere.
Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections – something no party has done since the formation of the modern party system in 1828. That suggests the Democratic coalition, on a national basis, is somewhat larger than the GOP’s. Is that not the definition of a rigged election? That the popular vote winner is the loser?
Theory #3 - the other "candidates" are not serious about running for President - they are either running for VP or a cabinet position in Trump's Cabinet - pretty cushy job if you stay below the radar (e.g., Elaine Chow, Betsy Devos...). What a waste of all of the donor money being given to and spent by those "candidates"...
If Trump wins in 2024, what makes anyone think there will be a free and fair election and that he will retire from the "stage" gracefully? He will do anything in his power, which will be huge at that point, to stay in power. There will not be a fair and free election in 2028.
Not sure if there is any strategy. I am not sure why anyone of them got into the race other than perhaps Christie & Hutchinson. They seem able to go through Trump, yet no traction at all. You need to come out swinging, be loud, be all over the map as far as visiting the cities, towns, communities big and small. Get out and meet the people who will be casting their vote. If you can’t do that, you’ve got nothing. You can’t hide behind Trump and meekly say things or say you will support the eventual nominee, even if Trump. Some of this is not rocket science and yet, they are acting as if they haven’t a care in the world and doing nothing to try and get someone to vote for them. I know Christie doesn’t have a chance but would have loved to see him surge, surging right passed DeSantis. Now that could have been an interesting match up. As far as who I would have liked to see as the ultimate top dog....Asa Hutchinson.
It’s baffling to me. The strategy is simple: You go after the leader. And Trump is clearly the leader. And yet, all of the rest of these people just continue to pull punches.
I have to admit that your footnote may have caused me to throw up in my mouth a little bit.
I do think it could happen!
As DeSantis makes the rounds of interviewing, how has he not been asked (or did I miss it?) Some variation of the following:
"We all know that if you win Iowa, or any state, fair and square, Trump is going to yell and scream it was stolen, he really won, and you are a cheater. The only 'if' here is you winning. He will do this. And a bare minimum of 1/3 of the Republican party will buy in. How will you handle that?"
And the follow up to that, when he poo-poos it happening, is "What is it in DJT's political career that makes you think there is any chance at all that he (and his base) will accept a result that he loses?"
Trump won’t be running in 2028. If we make him the main character in Everything Everywhere All At Once, there are (realistically) three fundamental universes from this point forward to election day 2028:
1. He wins the election and ends his prosecutions once in office. He is term limited in 2028 and thus cannot run.
2. He loses the election, is convicted on one or more of the federal indictments, and is still in prison in 2028, because Biden and/or Harris aren’t letting him out.
3. He loses the election, the rest of it shakes out as above, but he has already died in prison before the 2028 election.
If he doesn’t win this time, his only way to avoid dying in prison is if a future Republican president pardons him or commutes his sentence, and that’s not in the cards by 2028. “He runs from federal prison” strikes me as being firmly in “hot dog fingers” territory.
I have to disagree with your contention that Trump would be term limited and would not run in 2028. That creature has shown zero respect for the law or the Constitution (or decorum, human decency or anything else that makes us civilized.
He has already queried his horde if they would support him making himself president for life. He has already called for "termination" of parts of the Constitution.
If he gets into the White House in 2024 we won't be rid of him until he's in the ground and once that glorious day comes to pass either Jr or Vanky will be there to don the crown jewels.
Your no . 1. Scenario is not going to happen Eric. I think the most likely scenario is he is convicted in all or some of these crimes and President Joe Biden pardons him in 2025 out of respect for the office of the Presidency
Hard to say. If Biden has a McConnell moment in late October 2024, it’s probably time for us to do the screaming muppet run. I do agree that a Biden-Trump rematch is not a typical “insurgent runs against incumbent” deal -- both of them are effectively incumbent presidents, and as long as Biden is reasonably lucid I don’t see how Trump wins.
That said, I don’t see Biden pardoning Trump, and I don’t think he should. I think Trump partly exists because Ford pardoned Nixon and set an expectation that a president who commits crimes should actively expect not to go to jail. Trump is effectively pushing us into a cold civil war and thinks the law can’t or won’t touch him. While we’re a little more civilized than the “heads on spikes” days, figuratively speaking I believe that’s exactly needs to happen on a political and legal level. If he’s ever pardoned, it’ll be by a Republican. Indeed, I half expect that’s probably where his story will end: he will lose the election, he’ll get convicted, he’ll go to federal prison, and if he lives long enough to see another Republican in the White House, he’ll somewhat likely get pardoned down the road.
But... who knows? Ford largely ended his own political career by pardoning Nixon, and if Trump is convicted, perhaps that will break the fever enough that any future Republican capable of winning the presidency will be honest enough he won’t want to repeat that example. That said, that’s coming from roughly the exact same puppy dog hopefulness that had me thinking the Republican party would’ve thrown him overboard if he did something truly worth impeaching him for.
I think that in Scott's case, he is definitely bucking for the VP slot. Maybe Haley, too. The others are just a bunch of unprincipled cowards. Period. And as you suggested, it's not going to get them anywhere.
Scott and Haley are unprincipled cowards as well.
True.
Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections – something no party has done since the formation of the modern party system in 1828. That suggests the Democratic coalition, on a national basis, is somewhat larger than the GOP’s. Is that not the definition of a rigged election? That the popular vote winner is the loser?