Here's why Republicans *should* win in 2024

But they probably won't.

(Joe Biden, amused)

2024 should be a very good year for Republicans.

The Democratic president is unpopular.

The Senate map is heavily tilted their way.

The House majority looks entirely hold-able.

And on key issue after key issue, the public trusts Republicans over Democrats to handle them.

While predicting what the national political environment will look like in 18 months time is impossible, all of the pieces seem to be in place for Republicans to prosper come 2024.

And yet, talk to any savvy political strategist — Democrat or Republican — and they will tell you that things are less rosy for the GOP than you might think. And there’s one very specific reason for that: Donald J. Trump.

At the moment, Trump is riding a political high triggered by his arrest — yes, we live in the upside down now — that has put him WAY ahead of the rest of the Republican field.

As Trump has risen, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has stalled and even begun to drop in the polls — a worrisome sign for Republicans who viewed DeSantis as well positioned to deny Trump the GOP nomination for a third time.

That rise is of significant concern to Republicans focused on winning the White House in 2024, largely because Trump’s numbers outside the party’s base are so, so weak.

As I have noted in this space, Trump is struggling mightily among electorally-critical independents and is, obviously, nowhere with Democrats.¹ Republicans, looking at those numbers, fear a repeat of 2020 in which both parties' bases voted overwhelmingly for their candidate but Biden won independents by 13 points -- and won the election.

There’s a belief — and it’s one I happen to agree with — that Biden is deeply endangered in a race with any Republican other than Trump.². There's not enough polling data out there to back up that point just yet, however. DeSantis, for example, is running about the same against Biden as Trump is In the smattering of available polls.

What’s beyond question is that, with Trump as the nominee, it will be impossible for Republicans to make the 2024 race a referendum on Biden’s tenure in office. Which, if polling is to be believed, the majority of the American public disapprove of.

Instead a Trump-Biden race is very likely to revolve around the billionaire businessman. And not just Trump but his increasingly wild claims about the 2020 election being stolen, his perennial victim complex and his casual relationship with the truth.³

And we already know the public, well, doesn’t like Trump. According to 538’s tabulation of polls, just 37% view Trump favorably while 55% view him unfavorably. That’s below where Biden stands — at 42% favorable, 52.5% unfavorable — in that same measurement.

Any Republican candidate not named Trump is very likely to be a) less well known and b) less dimly viewed coming out of a primary fight. But, at the moment, it looks like it’s Trump who is most likely to emerge from said fight.

Then there’s the Senate and the House to think about it.

What we saw in 2022 — especially in the Senate — was that Trump-backed candidates tended to win primaries and lose general elections.

It happened in Pennsylvania. And Georgia. And Arizona. And Nevada.

And it may well be happening again. In Arizona, Kari Lake, a Trump favorite who lost her bid for governor in 2022, is reportedly interested in running for the Senate in 2024. In Pennsylvania, gubernatorial loser — and Trump acolyte — Doug Mastriano is also apparently moving closer to a candidacy. And, in Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale would likely run under the Trump banner — although it’s unclear whether he would have the support of the former president.⁴

While Republicans don’t need those seats to win the majority — they have myriad opportunities including in Republican-friendly states like West Virginia and Ohio — Trump weighing in for Lake, Mastriano or Rosendale would almost certainly mean a tougher general election campaign for GOP strategists.

What Senate (and, to a lesser extent, House) Republicans have to hope is that Trump is too busy with his presidential campaign to get too involved with downballot contests.

But, if past is prologue, that may not be the case. Trump l-o-v-e-s to wade into primaries and try to pick winners (and then take credit for having done so).⁵

The simple fact is that Republicans up and down the ballot would be in far better shape if Trump was simply not around. His presence — and profile — look likely to be an anchor around the necks of Republicans all the way through the 2024 election.

And, what’s worse for the party is that they know all of this. And yet they are powerless to stop it — or him. They’ve been on board the Trump train so long they don’t know how to get off even when it’s headed toward disaster.

1. It’s worth noting that Trump’s numbers in head to head matchups with Biden are just fine — at least at the moment. The Real Clear Politics polling average actually gives Trump a 1.8 point edge.

2. That’s not to say Trump couldn’t win a general election fight against Biden. He could, as I argue here.

3. Look I am trying to be kind.

4. Remember the phone call incident

5. He often took to social media to tout his win-loss record during the 2022 election cycle