Joe Biden and the death question

It's going to get uncomfortable, folks.

So, Nikki Haley came right out and said it.

“He announced that he’s running again in 2024, and I think that we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact that if you vote for Joe Biden you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely.”

Which, well, blunt!

You can shame Haley if you want. But the truth of the matter is that she is expressing a sentiment on a lot of peoples’ minds — especially since President Biden announced earlier this week that he would seek a 2nd term in 2024.

Biden is 80 and will turn 82 shortly after election day 2024. Poll after poll suggests that not only do a majority of Americans not want him to run again but that concerns over his age are the central reason for that feeling.

While polling rarely digs into why Biden’s age is such an issue for voters, two obvious reasons jump to mind:

1. Concerns that the job is simply too big for someone of his age

2. Worries that he will die in office, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris as president

Which are totally justifiable concerns! Life expectancy for the average American male is 73.2, according to the CDC. Biden is already the oldest person ever elected to a first term, and — obviously — would also be the oldest person ever elected to a 2nd term.

For his part, Biden sought Wednesday to make something of a joke of his age.

“I can’t even guess how old I am,” he told reporters. “I can’t even say the number, it doesn’t register with me. The only thing I can say is they’re going to see a race and they’re going to judge whether I have or don’t have it.”

That’s a rhetorical echo of what Biden has long said when asked about his age — going back to the 2016 campaign. “Watch me,” Biden is fond of saying in response to questions about his age.

But, dig below the surface even slightly and you can see that the Biden team a) understands the concerns that voters have about whether he will die in office and b) are working to boost Harris as an antidote to those worries.

Just watch Biden’s 2024 announcement video — released Tuesday morning.

Harris is ALL over that video. The message is clear: This is a presidential partnership, and Harris is damn near an equal player.

As the New York Times’ Katie Rogers expertly noted:

Kamala Harris, the vice president, was featured heavily throughout a video that President Biden used to announce his 2024 campaign on Tuesday, a strong signal that she will be a central part of his re-election efforts.

Somehow, both her harshest critics and her staunchest allies see this as a good thing.

Harris’ prominence in Biden’s announcement video is a tacit acknowledgement of two things: 1) Biden’s age makes his vice president more important and prominent and 2) Harris’ image needs, well, work.

To that second point, Axios reported this earlier in the week:

Top White House officials are rushing to the aid of Vice President Kamala Harris to try to shore up her underwhelming poll numbers heading into 2024…

…Harris, initially saddled by Biden with no-win issues such as immigration and a stalled voting-rights bill, has frustrated many of his top aides. She has suffered frequent staff turnover, and rarely has been entrusted with high-profile assignments.

A quick look at Harris’ poll numbers make clear that she still has work to do with the public. Here’s where she stands in the Real Clear Politics polling average:

Politically speaking then, one of the most important proxy wars of the 2024 campaign will be over what Harris represents to people.

Is she a groundbreaking history-maker who has ably served Biden? Or is she someone deeply out of her depth who would be a danger to America if she was thrust into the top job?

The question before Republicans is how hard to go at the idea that Biden may well die in office.

To date, Haley is on the extreme end of the spectrum. Heck not even Donald Trump has said that Biden is likely to die in office!

Trump, so far, has limited his criticism to the notion that Biden is out of it — leaving the “why” to the listener’s imagination.

“We are in the most dangerous position we have ever been in as a nation and we have a leader that just doesn’t know what’s going on,” Trump said of Biden during an interview earlier this week.

The honest truth is we don’t know how lines like Haley’s will play — simply because we have NEVER been in a position like this before.

Will it resonate with voters who have their doubts about Harris and just don’t think Biden will last through a second term?

Or will it be seen as overly morbid — an unwelcome reminder of where we are all headed?

Haley, who has proposed competency testing for all politicians over 75, clearly believes that talking VERY bluntly about Biden’s mortality — and the chances of Harris becoming president — is a winner for her.

But, she is also a longshot for the Republican nomination desperate to make a mark in the race. And the talk of Biden’s impending death fits, broadly, into Haley’s messaging — which is that American politics is dominated by old men and that needs to change.

The calculation for Trump is slightly different. At 76, he is no spring chicken. So talking about how a guy, who is just four years older than him, is going to die soon hits a bit different coming from Trump.

At the same time, Trump is purely transactional — and not terribly self aware. ¹ If Republican voters respond to Haley's blunt assessment about Biden's likely longevity, I can totally see Trump adopting that piece of rhetoric.

The truth is that we’re through the looking glass on the question of age — and mortality — in politics. We’ve never had someone as old as Biden run for a 2nd term as president — and no one really knows how his candidacy will land with the public.

1. This may be the understatement of the century.