Let's dispel with the myth that Ron DeSantis is Donald Trump's main challenger

That's over.

(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

It’s a bad day to be Ron DeSantis.

To wit, new polling numbers from CNN and the University of New Hampshire detail the state of play in the Granite State:

Trump 39%

Ramaswamy 13%

Haley 12%

Christie 11%

DeSantis 10%

Which is bad for Ron! But, it’s even worse when you consider how much ground he has lost since the last time UNH polled New Hampshire in July. Here’s those same numbers with the drop or rise since July for each candidate in parentheses:

Trump 39% (+2)

Ramaswamy 13% (+8)

Haley: 12% (+7)

Christie: 11% (+5)

DeSantis: 10% (-13)

That’s right. Ron DeSantis has dropped THIRTEEN points in the space of two months. Talk about a bad trend line!

Anyone who has been paying attention to the 2024 race over, say, the last two months has almost certainly concluded that DeSantis is now better described as “one of a pack of candidates badly trailing Trump” than he is as “the clear second choice to Trump.”

Look at these trend lines — as visualized by Real Clear Politics — over the past few months in national polling (DeSantis is the green line):

The eyeball test proves it. DeSantis is MUCH closer to the likes of Ramaswamy and Haley than he is to Trump. In fact, in seven of the last eight national polls conducted on the primary race, Trump’s lead over DeSantis is larger than 40 points.

What do the DeSantis numbers — in New Hampshire and nationally — tell us?

At the most basic level, they say that the much-touted reboots of his campaign have not worked. Which should not be terribly surprising. Because, if you have been reading this newsletter, you know that the fundamental problem with the DeSantis campaign is DeSantis. And that is not something that re-working the campaign staff or organization can change.

It’s also worth noting here that DeSantis’ messaging — even after this most recent re-start of his campaign — has been all over the place. One day he’s talking about Trump being too restrictive when it came to Covid-19 lockdown measures. The next he’s talking about how Trump is different than he was in 2016. Or the Florida crime rate. And so on.

The overall impression you’re left with is that DeSantis — still — hasn’t settled on a message that a) he feels comfortable selling and/or b) works against Trump.

Now. DeSantis — still — has more money, thanks to a well funded super PAC, than anyone not named “Trump” in the field. And, by all accounts, he is running better in Iowa than he is in New Hampshire or nationally.

So, all is not lost for DeSantis. But, the dynamic of the race has fundamentally changed in a way that is disastrous for DeSantis — especially on the fundraising front.

For most of 2023 (and even late 2022), DeSantis’ pitch to donors was simple: If you don’t want Trump, I am the only viable alternative. No one else can beat him — or come close.

That theory of the case is now utterly blown up. DeSantis is now just another candidate in low double digits (maybe) looking up — way up — at Trump. And it’s actually even worse than that. The likes of Ramaswamy and Haley can sell their forward momentum in the race; DeSantis can’t.

If raising money was a problem before, it’s only going to get worse now.

The truth is that the writing has been on the wall for a while. The decision by the DeSantis super PAC to pull back on his organizing efforts in Super Tuesday states to concentrate on Iowa. The spin out of DeSantis world that he could finish second to Trump in Iowa and still be fine in the race. It all points in a very specific direction.

And, it’s all suggestive of a campaign in a downward spiral. And seemingly without any real plan or ideas on how to pull out of it.

The New Hampshire poll then is less a leading indicator of where the race is headed and more a confirmation of what we’ve known for a little while now: Ron DeSantis is in deep, deep trouble in this race.